Remember when I showed you folks the chart for the Baltic Dry Index, back on January 17th? Here is a refresher:
And here is what it looks like today:
So Captain Smith, see any deck chairs that need to be moved? Maybe you have a request for the band?
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Maybe on the other end of that line you will find that cruise ship. ???
Kidding aside that seems to be about a 30% in 2 weeks? NY up down index went below zero today-warning sign
Mike,
One thing i forgot to mention in the post: As the S&P 500 prepares to have a “golden cross”, the Baltic Dry is about to enter “death cross” with it’s MA technicals. We are getting some scary technicals lately.
Could pricing be lower not due to the volume of goods, but the volume of ships? I recall something a few years about signle hulled vs. doubled hulled ships…. Maybe there are more Double hulled ships now?
could be but did they come on line in 9 days????
Art,
While that is possible, did we double the number of ships and/or cargo space? Since the end of last year, the BDI has gone down by over half (that is in less than a month).
While there may be a perfectly reasonable explanation (Chinese New Year maybe?), that drop is awfully large.
Wish I could buy the index. Looks like on a weekly chart, RSI’s in 20′s(where it’s at now) provide big moves up in the index. Also look at the down moves in the BDI starting June 2010(4250 down to 1700ish), and October 2010(2750 down to 1100). Comparing SPX to $BDI is interesting on the same weekly chart
M,
When you said that, I thought I’d see what i could find in the etf’s. The closest thing I found was SEA, which is a global shipping etf (equities). Ironically, it’s been going up as the BDI was going down. Go figure.
Yeah, I’ve looked before and nothing correlates well enough.
If you look at the graph for $BDI for say the last 4 or more years, you will see that the current drop is really very small compared to what it has done in the past. I like the volatility but have never been able to find anything to use to trade on it. Even tried some shipping stocks, but that was a catastrophe.
Scary figures: in Spain, people out of jobs up: 22.85% altogether (official of course), 51.45% of people below 25 and counting.