The markets don’t have a defined direction right now. Whether we see one today or not will depend a lot on the weekly U.S. unemployment claims report. Will the following trend continue?
The only reason I think this can be a concern is due to the Gallup poll from the other day, showing a 9% unemployment rate for February (to be released at 8:30 am EST). If we get an increase in unemployment, this week’s report should start to show it. However, with the government’s numbers not showing people who have quit looking for work, it is hard to say whether the weekly unemployment claims will be meaningful. Also watch for any adjustments to previous weeks, as an upward adjustment could be just as bad, or worse, than whatever this week’s report shows.
Naturally, how the market interprets the weekly unemployment report will only have meaning in the case of results which aren’t clearly terrible or positive. According to Bloomberg, the consensus range is from 330,000 to 363,000. If the weekly comes in above or below those numbers, there could be severe reaction from the markets. Otherwise, expect a range-bound market, with yesterday’s S&P 500 low of 1355 serving as a weak resistance level. If we get a positive read, we can easily bounce up to 1367 (Tuesday’s high), with a negative read taking the S&P 500 down to the 1340-1344 area. If we get a weekly unemployment number above 400,000, don’t be surprised to see an even bigger hit.
(Hat tip to Bloomberg for the chart. Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/)
Unemployment claims came in at the upper end of the range:
“In the week ending February 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 351,000, unchanged from the previous week’s revised figure of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 359,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 366,000.”
Bought a half position in SPXU at 10.23, will sell at 10.39.
I should add that was a pre-market order, although you probably already figured that out by when I posted it.
mike, reload price on jrcc in mind?
Well, for better or worse, I decided to play again… In at $6.3573.
JMB
Tony-all- I am watching- we have to remember that JRCC can go into 5′s I do not want to be early I will assess at end of day and probaly buy a starter position hopefully get it in the 6.20′s or less.
Got a buy limit order in for JRCC @ 6.28…
Sold SPXU at 10.34. I decided not to be greedy with it. I took my 1.08% profit and ran.
A 1.08% profit in only a couple of hours doesn’t sound greedy to me. Sounds a lot more like a very good trade.
Thanks Tom!
Good trade, Ed!!
Hey any of you that bought JRCC congrats and be careful- keep profits everything is looking a little weak.
Out at $6.55. Thanks for the tip Mike (Given Fidelity’s high trading fees (7.95 in/out), I always have a hard time deciding to whether to sell when/if the expenses of trading amount to almost a third of the profits… I guess I just need to either 1) play with more money or 2) find a different brokerage…
JMB…got you beat! My trading fees are 9.99 in/out!!
Nice trade JMB Better be safe than sorry. We have to remember this stock is very volatile- coal industry is also. I bet we see JRCC at 5-6 and bet we see it at 10+ this year. This is just a guess though- am NOT holding or anything else long term at this time. I might add also to my dispair so far this year
If anyone is looking for a time to go short, it’s about to hit. The market is charging up a little too hard at the moment. Get ready to get your shorts on…
Giggling…now, WHY would “boxer” shorts come to mind?!! Ha…I know what your topic can be for the weekend! A survey of boxer shorts versus briefs…
STL,
Now that was below the belt.
Hold it now- we have to keep Ed’s G rating- let’s not get too racy here…….
bought PPO @ 37.15.
sold AGU March put 82.5/1.4.
Georic,
Now that’s a new one on me. I can’t say I have even heard of Polypore before, but the growth prospects are good. Their cash flow worries me though.
I think that is a Jubak pick that just really got hammered?????
Right Mike!
Mike
Speaking of Jubak: I bought JUBAX back in Sep 2010. After seeing RED for most of the time, this morning it turned profitable.
m&m,
Just curious, but does JUBAX still have about 100 different holdings?
M&m, sort of makes me a little leery that jubaks just turned positive when we have gone that far up…………….
Ed
Still over 100 holdings
Mike
Yea, it’s not good to have risk with no return.
God love Jubak, but he’s nuts. With that many stocks, he is more like an alternative index fund. Heck, the Dow only has 30 stocks.
I have to agree, Jubak is a great read but I question his choices. I think he may have tried to go too far too fast. We are here to make money. That is why we play the game.
Ed, I would venture to guess that most mutual/etc. funds carry in excess of 100 stocks. There are a lot of stocks in the world and Jubak like most other funds buys world wide and not just on the U.S. exchanges. No, I don’t own any of Jubak’s fund but I do continue to read his web page because for long term investors he has interesting views on the world’s economies, etc. I do own some equities that he has or is recommending and own at least one or two he has recommended to sell.
Latetom,
There is a difference between a great stock picker and a great fund manager. Don’t misunderstand me, I am not, nor would I, say “don’t listen to Jubak”. I have tons of respect for him, both for his macro views as well as his stock-picking skills.
Also, the fact many mutual funds carry in excess of 100 stocks doesn’t speak well for them either. Why pay 1 or 2% or more in fees for a mutual fund, when you can get a well-diversified etf for under 1% in expense ratio, and frequently less than half of that? There comes a point when any portfolio becomes over-diversified. Where that point is exactly, I can only guess, but I am certain over 100 stocks is past that point. Jubak is actually a good example of that. I know his stock picks are good, but even he has his limits.
Ed, I agree-How much does it cost for a chicken or a dart board?
Ed, Some of the reasons in your last post is why ETFs are so popular today. Up until about three years ago my trading account had dollars in several different mutual funds. Today I have a small position in an India mutual fund and that is it. I use the ETFs especially for foreign country exposure and like several on you blog I used it for silver. I agree with you in why pay a large fee when you can do it yourself or use an ETF at a smaller fee.
sold SCHA @ 36.58 + 3 cents / share
Added TZA at 19.00, will sell at 19.19.
Doubled my TZA at 18.54 for a new dollar cost average of 18.77. Will sell entire position at 18.87.
in TZA @ 18.55 looking for 50 cents
SCO 33.14 I will bail if this goes down 25-30 cents
Short of a huge drop at the end here, I will most likely be holding TZA into tomorrow.
Me too
The DOW is at 12,992
In TZA 18.28 and have a sell limit of 18.88…