Traders Corner   6 comments

With the big run-up which the S&P 500 has had since June 24th, the Bollinger Bands have expanded to a 138 point range. If the S&P were to drop to the bottom of the range, it would be a 7.7% fall. Fortunately, “Uncle Ben” is providing plenty of liquidity to hold us up…

Futures are flat at the moment, but I don’t see anything in the technicals to give a definitive up or down move today. Williams %R remains overbought for the S&P 500, but the McClellan Oscillator is in neutral at 45.99. If we have a strong move to the upside today, I would expect a stronger potential for a drop tomorrow.

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1683-1684 (3 data points), 1687 (all-time high), and 1699 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1680 (also July 12th’s high).
DOWNSIDE: 1676-1677 (3 data points), 1671-1672 (2 data points), 1658 (10 day moving average), 1657 (2 data points), 1654 (July 9th’s high and June’s high), 1647 (July 10th’s low), 1644 (July 8th’s high), 1642 (July 9th’s low), 1637 (50 day moving average), 1634 (July 8th’s low), 1632 (July 5th’s high), 1630 (20 day moving average), 1622-1626 (9 data points), 1618 (July 3rd’s high), 1614 (July 5th’s low), 1606-1610 (2 data points), 1604 (July 3rd’s low), 1597 (April’s high), 1581 (May’s low), 1572 (March’s high), 1561 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1560 (June’s low), 1536 (April’s low), 1530 (February’s high), and 1522 (200 day moving average).

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Posted July 18, 2013 by edmcgon in Daytrading, Investing, Market Analysis

6 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. Any opinions on JCI? I’ve held it since mid 2011, and it got a nice bump today. I could sell all of my positions for reasonable profit, not counting the dividends.

    • Tough call John. They beat on earnings, but missed slightly on revenue. JCI is a well-run company that pays a decent dividend, albeit unspectacular at 2+%. What did you pay per share for it?

      • Three lots at $38.82, $39.95, and $33.25.

      • JCI is the kind of stock you will have to hold for many years in order for the dividend to become worthwhile, although it should always be safe, at least based on the company’s history.

        If you’re just selling for the profit, I’d probably hold it. JCI is as good as cash over the long run, if you’re patient with it. On the other hand, if you are selling to get out of the market (and go to cash), then go ahead. Or if you see a better investment you’d rather have your money in, go ahead and sell it.

  2. John,
    Maybe wait to see if it can close above its long term resistance at 40.92. Does not mean it will not go down in the short term. But in my opinion the stock is looking like it wants to trend upwards. I see todays big pop as positive for the longer term. I can see why you’d want to get out now that you’re whole again cuz that was a long ride down for awhile. A quick check of few indicators and I see them flashing overbought at this level, but did not see any showing a definitive down move. Maybe sell a portion, and buy it back if it falls back into the $37 area. If I were you I’d take an hour and read over the quarterly report to see what everyone is so excited about. May help you make a decision. if you want to hold it longer.

    • Thanks for the opinions guys. I may want to sell to decrease my individual stock exposure, and instead hold a more concentrated ETF portfolio. I need a little more boring and conservative in my portfolio. But I’m not rushing the sell idea.

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