Traders Corner   12 comments

My apologies to PETA, but we will be bouncing dead cats today. Not literally, of course, but the markets are perfectly set up for it:

1. The McClellan Oscillator is at a perfect -100 oversold rating.
2. The Williams %R finished yesterday at -99, which was it’s 5th day lower than -80.
3. The S&P 500 finished below the bottom of the Bollinger Bands (1655) yesterday, at 1646.
4. S&P 500 futures are up slightly at the moment.

My guess is the S&P 500 will not break 1657, the 50 day moving average. Sentiment, and caution before the Fed’s meeting minutes tomorrow, will keep the bulls from taking over. But the S&P 500 could end the day within the Bollinger Bands.

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1652 (August 16th’s low), 1654 (June’s high), 1655 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1657 (50 day moving average), 1658-1659 (2 data points), 1663 (August 16th’s high), 1679 (August 15th’s high), 1682-1684 (4 data points), 1686 (August 9th’s low), 1687 (20 day moving average), 1688-1693 (12 data points), 1695-1696 (3 data points), 1698-1700 (2 data points and July’s high), 1703 (August 5th’s low), 1705 (August 6th’s high), 1707 (August 1st’s high), 1709 (2 data points and the all-time high), and 1719 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1646.
DOWNSIDE: 1645 (August 19th’s low), 1604 (July’s low), 1597 (April’s high), 1581 (May’s low), 1572 (March’s high), 1560 (June’s low), and 1551 (200 day moving average).

DISCLAIMER: No actual cats were injured in the writing of this post…

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Posted August 20, 2013 by edmcgon in Daytrading, Investing, Market Analysis

12 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. I put in a limit sell order on UPRO at $68.84, although I may reduce that as the day goes on.

  2. Markets look very weak. Doubt we’ll see much of a bounce today.

  3. I sold 1/3 of my AAPL holdings today. It was by far my largest position and even with the sale is #4. I used half of the proceeds and added to my SBS and ACAS positions. The rest I have banked. It does feel like a bit of a success for me to actually profit from my AAPL buys late last year and during this year.

  4. I sold UPRO at $68.80 and a 1.16% profit overall (+1.58% today). I should note, this was a double position. The technicals were solid for today’s pop.

    • Congrats Ed, nice job.

    • Ed, just curious. You rarely daytrade and when you do you limit yourself to a 1% profit. Nothing wrong with the profit if the gain is on a regular basis. Doesn’t seem to me it is worth the risk. If you are wrong, one bad day will wipe out several winning trades. With your technicals oversold, wondering why you don’t let a change in the technicals determine your exit point. Move today is stronger than I thought and I don’t see any intraday weakness yet.

      • Trader, if I get unexpectedly busy at work, I could miss the change in the technicals. Better to take the profit and run. 😉

        If anything, I let the UPRO run a bit farther than my usual 1% profit today. But I didn’t feel comfortable as the S&P went above the bottom of the Bollinger Bands, so I bailed. Since that was one of my confirming technicals, I had to respect it, even though I thought the S&P could get as high as the 50 day MA.

        Finally, I’m beginning to feel more confident in spotting when the technicals are firmly overbought/oversold, and ready to drop or bounce. However, the technical-driven day-long moves don’t come along every day, usually only once or twice a month. Keep in mind: When I daytrade, I’m talking about a few hours at least.

  5. Any opinions on PTY? I sold a bunch in the $21 range, but held onto some as well. I’m now under water on it, not counting dividends, but have no need to sell it anytime soon.

    I’m also looking to potentially sell some of my higher risk investments that are still in the green. Opinions on the best to dump? They include C, CSCO, TIP, and VZ.

    • John – my view is to move away from fixed income and quasi fixed income investments. I would place vz and tip in that category.

    • If you don’t need to sell PTY, I wouldn’t. Just hold it and keep collecting the dividends.

      I’m not a fan of most of the TBTF banks, and that includes C. If I had to buy one, I’d get WFC. Even though C is cheap based on it’s financials, do we really trust those financials?

      As for CSCO, there isn’t much upside for it. The dividend is most of the profit you will see in it.

      TIP is an ultra-conservative play. Unless you need the money for something else, I’d leave it here.

      I like VZ as a company. Their financials could be a little better, but you can’t complain about their dividend. I’d hold onto it, and reinvest the dividends in it.

      Overall, C would be the one I’d sell.

    • Thanks for the opinions guys.

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