August 29th: Ed’s Daily Portfolio Summary   27 comments

GNW: 0.18 to $11.89 ( 1.54% , 26.89% overall)– bought at $9.37
IAU: -0.09 to $13.66 ( -0.65% , 4.35% overall)– bought at $13.09
NNVC: 0.04 to $1.19 ( 3.48% , 153.19% overall)– bought at $0.47
YHOO: 0.19 to $27.30 ( 0.70% , 13.04% overall)– bought at $24.15

OVERALL: +0.08%

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Posted August 29, 2013 by edmcgon in Open Thread, Portfolio

27 responses to “August 29th: Ed’s Daily Portfolio Summary

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  1. hey plas

    Good news. Great Britain has come to their senses and withdrawn support for an invasion of syria. just another poke in the eye embarassment for the bummer. looks like our allies won’t even support this guy, the leader of the free world. 🙂 whether you agreed with the invasion of iraq or not (I didn’t), gwb garnered the support of 43 countries with committed boots on the ground. this dolt can’t even muster up a few allies to provide a pin prick to assad. time for another vacation.

    • I know, I was cheering when I read the news 🙂
      Looks like the USA is loosing some of its shine … doesn’t mean thought that you will not do an intervention … I do think your government has a hidden agenda (again) with the seven sisters.

      • plas,
        Seven sisters?

      • From wikipedia:
        The “Seven Sisters ” was a term coined in the 1950s by businessman Enrico Mattei, then-head of the Italian state oil company Eni, to describe the seven oil companies which formed the “Consortium for Iran” cartel and dominated the global petroleum industry from the mid-1940s to the 1970s.[1][2] The group comprised Anglo-Persian Oil Company (now BP); Gulf Oil, Standard Oil of California (SoCal) and Texaco (now Chevron); Royal Dutch Shell; and Standard Oil of New Jersey (Esso) and Standard Oil Company of New York (Socony) (now ExxonMobil).[3] [4]
        Prior to the oil crisis of 1973, the members of the Seven Sisters controlled around 85 percent of the world’s petroleum reserves, but in recent decades the dominance of the companies and their successors has declined as a result of the increasing influence of the OPEC cartel and state-owned oil companies in emerging-market economies.[1][5]

        Here is a good documentary about the seven sisters:
        http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.be/2013/05/interesting-documentary-secret-of-seven.html

        Call it conspiracy or not, but to me the wars the USA are starting are more about oil than terrorism. Since I’ve seen the documentaries, a lot of what is happening in the world is making more sense.

      • Thanks for the education Plas! I had never heard that phrase before, but it certainly makes sense.

        I’m not sure that Syria is about oil (Syria doesn’t produce that much oil). I think it is more about Obama’s ill-advised “red line” comment. He has backed himself into a corner and now he looks ineffective if he does nothing. I just hope his own ego doesn’t lead the U.S. into yet another stupid Mideast war.

      • Syria is a very strategic place for oil transport, especially for Russia. Syria and Russia have a deal for transporting Syrian crude oil to Russia – which made the Saudi’s furious. For me the American strike on Syria is to bully Russia and support the oil companies. It’s not about the amount of oil production, it is about Syria being an independant oil-producer (and surrounding Iran ofcourse, which is probably the final target there).
        Seems like general Wesley Clarks “planned attacks” are all becoming reality.

  2. Question for the group…

    Since we saw the fianancial/economic collapse here and abroad (reminds me of Dominoes falling), all of the countries seem to be interconnected, so I was wondering if y’all think this could very well happen here if the Dollar completely collapses??? Our money in banks are gone, etc. I was listening to someone on the news and he was discussing how this could happen. Penny for your thoughts…thanks a bunch!

    • I don’t think the dollar will collapse – that is: not yet. Russia and China are hoarding gold (they are not collecting gold to just look at it), and when they have enough gold, I do think the will announce another world-currency. And then … all dollars will come home and the dollar will collapse. With big repercussions for the people in the USA. And let’s be honest: who really believes the USA is really gonna pay of their debt – without hyperinflation?
      And indeed, everything is connected. There is about 190 trillion dollars of debt around this planet, while world-gdp is 70 trillion dollars – do the math. Someday we -as a whole world- must deleverage. And Sout-East-Asia, as well as India and Turkey collapsing makes me pretty worried too. China is on the verge of its own financial crisis, Japan is out of bullets for its own 20yo-crisis, EU falling apart, …
      I really don’t believe we can still solve our problems (without getting external resources from some colony), many politicians still shouting everything still is possible. The math just doesn’t work. Something’s gotta give.
      For me the most probably scenario is a collapse, worse than 2008, a lot of struggling and strikes (much resistance from the unions, they got too much in the past and don’t wanna loose it), break-up of the Euro (in some way) and then a new Bretton Woods. Many central banks are buyers of gold, that is not without reason. A shift will happen, in which direction I do not know.

      • If China is on the verge of collapse, can’t they just call in the debt that we owe them?????

      • STL,
        Remember most of that U.S. debt is held in treasuries, which have a term. Nobody, including the Chinese, can just call up the U.S. government and demand immediate payment. They will get paid when the term ends.

        Alternatively, the Chinese could go to the world markets and try to unload all those treasuries. Unfortunately, they probably wouldn’t get full value for all those treasuries. It would be economic MAD. They’d end up devaluing both the yuan and dollar to extreme levels (think hyperinflation in both China and the U.S.).

      • Forgot to add to your last coments…if this does happen, there will be riots, violence, looters, and rapists. Almost makes me wonder if a sort of Armageddon will occur and lots of folks will be hoarding/stockpiling for this meltdown.

      • Good questions. Thought about it a lot myself. This is my view:
        China cannot sell much of USA’s debt because:
        – it is possible China has to devaluate iself alot, possibly before a dollar collaps will come, external debt will hold its value during an internal collapse
        – China is not just “an” elephant in the room, but thé elephant. If China starts selling, that will not go unnoticed. What will happen with USA’s rates? They probably will skyrocket and instantly kill USA’s economy, thus China’s main export will be killed.
        – Does China actually care? Sure they own much of your debt, but so what? They hoarded something much more important to make a restart: knowledge – the companies that produced there, gave it to China.

        Riots, violence, … Look at what is happening in Greece, Spain, India, some parts in China, South-America, … I think this will spread. Nations are hoarding already. Russia is hoarding gold, China is hoarding gold and commodoties, USA is hoarding/taking control over oil (i.e. the blood in the veins of every economy).

        Call me a doomthinker or not, but it does connect the dots.

      • plas,
        The only problem I see in your statement is the Russian and/or Chinese world currency. While I have heard this theory before, I have a problem buying into it. First, anything involved with Putin has to be looked at skeptically. As for the Chinese, they would have to open up their economy to the world, and their government doesn’t like transparency (admittedly, the U.S. has become less transparent in recent times, but we are still decades ahead of the Chinese on transparency). There are far too many political issues for the world to accept a Russian/Chinese world currency, although the Chinese will certainly shoot for it.

        But I very much agree with you that another Bretton Woods is highly possible, especially if we see another financial collapse.

      • Ed, I’m not saying Russia and China will have the next world currency, Russia is mobster, and China just isn’t ready for it. But I do see the possibility both will work together to something new and together pull the plug out the USD. Possibly the next world currency will be a new USD, but I don’t see that one lasting for long either. In the long run, I also think China’s currency will be the next world currency, but before we are there, the yuan can be inflated numerous times.
        And I don’t think transparency is very important – if it were, the USD should have been dumped in the mean time … but like I said, China is not stable enough yet, but they are working towards being the new world currency with their trade-agreements.

    • STL,
      I think the dollar collapsing is a possibility, but we may not live to see it. For comparison, it took the Ancient Romans hundreds of years to completely devalue their currency. On the other hand, thanks to modern technology, the U.S. is certainly capable of printing more “electronic” dollars than the Romans were.

      Keep in mind, money disappearing from the banks is an opposite problem to currency devaluation. That would actually increase the value of the dollar (since people couldn’t get it), creating deflation.

  3. Thanks Plastronneke for your insight. I’ve been considering stockpiling certain foods with a long shelf life for the “just in case” scenario. Also, thinking of reseaching books, etc. like a survivalist guide. Reminds me of the old ant and grasshopper child’s story….

    • No probs 🙂
      I think these are important to have:
      – something to trade (gold, silver, knowledge, man-hours, …) if your currency has become worthless to buy the nessecarry stuff (i.e. food, heating, …)
      – a little bit of agriculture land to cultivate your own food as well as the knowledge to do it
      – try to stand out in something so you’ll have work
      – have some shelter of your own or somewhere pretty certain where you can stay
      – as jim rogers says “see the change, embrace the change” – this I think is the hardest part for me, to not fight it. It’s very frustrating to look at a train-wrecking in slow-motion and being unable to stop it.
      – about stockpiling food: I try to have some, but not too much, I like fresh vegetables – see above here. And I don’t know when the time is there – this can become a costly investment: I don’t like to eat canned stuff.

      And if doomsday does not come, not problem. I’ll have some backup when I become ill or have some kind of hard times, I know to look after my own interests.
      I’m not a pessimist, not at all. I’m more and more thinking like George Carlin I’m afraid
      “Besides, there is nothing wrong with the planet. Nothing wrong with the planet. The planet is fine. The PEOPLE are fucked. Difference. Difference. The planet is fine. Compared to the people, the planet is doing great.”

      • I think you forgot the most important things to stockpile, guns and ammunition (and maybe a nice gang).

        Unless you are going to off and find a place where there are no people, here is how the real world works.
        You have food, water shelter, and someone or some other people that are stronger don’t, they will take it from you.
        You know how to grow it? Great you will be their slave.

        As for gold, it is only useful, if society doesn’t collapse.

        Personally this is my view point. If it comes to this kind of collapse I have very little desire to live in such an environment, so I will not plan for it.

        I think that people really have no clue what it means when society collapse, and yes the dollar collapsing would do that. Not only to the US, but to the world, too many people depend on it.

        But in fact it isn’t going to happen. There are places in the world with extreme inflation and still they go on.
        The people of today live in low inflation and have no idea that you can live in high inflation without the world collapsing.

        And to think that it would collapse over Syria, just shows how way off base these kinds of predictions are.

        Sorry I don’t buy it.

      • P.S. I am a pessimist and I still seem to have more faith it ability of humans to milk a bad situation for a VERY long time, and we haven’t even got to what I would call a “bad situation” in most parts of the world the represents the “end of it all”.

      • Chris,
        VERY well said! I don’t think I’ve heard it put that succinctly, but it is very true.

      • ChrisO…point well taken, as you’re right about having guns and ammo but in our home (3 sisters & a mom), we have NONE!! Will be looking to buy one ASAP.

      • I wasn’t suggesting buying one. I like guns, and I have one, but I haven’t used it in years, and it sits there without any ammo.

        The bad guys will have guns too, and there will be more of them, with better weapons (do you have a tank? They might).

        I have no magic bullet for coming through something like that, but as I look at the history of revolutions and such, I notice they never seem to go the way to doomsday people predict. But frankly I care more about the quality of my life then just my life. If I would be forced to live by killing hungry people that “didn’t prepare”, I rather die.

      • I don’t suggest society will collaps. I don’t think our economy will collaps over Syria (at least not the Western societies, maybe some local societies). And hyperinflation is a collaps if you ask me. If there is hyperinflation, it is always good to have your own home, to grow your own crops and to have something you stand out in so people can pay you and it is always good to have some hard-currency.
        I don’t know whether you have seen the images of Greece (this is almost next to my door), but people there are cutting trees in the wood illegaly to heath their homes in the winter. You don’t think some situation like that is possible in Belgium or the USA?
        I see a new bretton woods coming – or at least something similar. The fiat money we have now is done – too much debt, if was a nice thing to try but it failed. The things I suggest is always good in case are economy tanks like in the 1930’s.
        And about guns and ammo: we cannot stockpile them here in the EU … very strict laws. And before you buy one: learn how to shoot and control yourself. I’m not in favor of the USA laws where you even can buy military weapons almost as easy as a can of coke.

      • Syria isn’t what started me thinking about the dominoe effect…it was the idea that we probably have a much higher debt ceiling than $17+ trillion. I just don’t see how the Federal Reserve can keep printing fake money before the proverbial poopie hits the fan!!

      • It doesn’t take a gun to take what you have, mobs use pieces of wood and bricks to good effect (not to mention knives).
        Also I would point out that not everyone lives in the same conditions. For instance I doubt someone in New York city is going to be able to follow your advice on growing their own food. And that is true for me for that matter. I live in a townhouse. Do I know how to grow food? Yes. But I don’t have the land. Maybe in fact stockpiling the seeds is what might be the better bet for the people that have the land, but don’t be surprised if the same people that are going to the forests to get firewood, might find your garden a good place to visit.

        In reality you seem to be talking about say, a depression or changing of the government (like in Egypt), oppose to an actual collapse of the dollar (which can’t happen in my opinion without major society breakdown). Now that is certainly a different thing. In that society doesn’t breakdown. The money isn’t worthless, it is just not worth what it was. And times do get hard, but not to the point that the people either overthrow the government or society breaks down completely.

        I do own my house. I paid it down in the times when people told me it was stupid to do so because I could instead put it in the stock market and make more money. I will certainly take the security of owning it. But in fact there is no place for me to stockpile stuff, at least for any duration of time over say a natural disaster like a earthquake (which might even wipeout that very stockpile).

      • Just one more point. People can talk about fiat and fake money, but in fact there is nothing, but that. Backing a currency by gold or something else provides no more security, it is simply a limiting factor. Limiting factors always exist even if you can’t see them. If you borrow money you are limited by how much people will lend you..

        When you break it down nothing has a set value. A glass of water from my faucet currently costs pennies, but to person dying of thirst, they will give almost anything for it. Very few humans can provide for all their needs by themselves. We take care of that problem by cooperating with each other trading our services. Money is just a stand in for that.

        If I take you back to where there was no “money” there will still be some, it will be what is traded to get what we need.

        You worry about about the $17+ trillion is debt, and I’m certainly not happy about it, and I think it means hard times for a lot of people in the future, but is far from a smoking gun signaling the end.

        So a “dollar” (which in fact can be anything) is worth what we say it is worth. And the rules of the way humans work, say that we will set a value on it so that “there are poor, there are ‘average’, and their are rich, and spectrum of in betweens”.

        In the US have people screaming about how a kid in XXX country is working XX hours and only getting $1, and they talk about how terrible that is. And it just proves that they didn’t have a clue about economics. The economics are not the same everywhere and at all times people seem to think. People constantly ignore inflation when talking about the “good old days”. They ignore the fact that $1 goes a lot farther in those countries.

        Here is actual example of how the real world works.
        I married my wife 17 years ago. She is from Ukraine. The average person there was paid the equivalent of about $60 a month.
        At the time in the US, if I was paid $60 a month I would not be able to pay for food let alone rent/house payments.
        That $60 a month didn’t buy them luxury (far from it), but they did have a place to live and they did have food.
        A dollar had such value there because it in fact had to. The average person had to have an average income.

        Even with the example of the Greece where they have been living way over their means forever, and choosing not to work, a lot of them might be having hard times, but they majority of them have food and shelter. And they can’t even begin to compare to the US.

        First off, yes the US controls its own money, if pushed it has the people and resources to create everything it needs. Sure it much nicer with the rest of world’s resources to buy from, but in fact if the rest of world said “US we will not lend you any more money” the US could turn around and say “OK we will not buy anything more from you”. Just think about which couldn’t hold out longer in that argument?

        No I’m not as worried about this as you two seem to be. I have always lived a modest life. I can do just fine on what is “below average”, and I have skills that are above average so I believe that I will make out just fine no matter what the world throws at me.

      • Wow Chris…

        Your analogies were awesome but I just loved this part –> ‘…rest of world said “US we will not lend you any more money” the US could turn around and say “OK we will not buy anything more from you”. I hadn’t even thought of that…thank you so much for taking the time to explain your position.

        Have a good evening…
        STL

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