Traders Corner   9 comments

Yellow alert! We have a new technical added to the overbought category, with the RSI now above 70. That doesn’t mean the S&P 500 will fall today, especially not on a Fed day, but it does mean we are getting closer to an extremely overbought condition. Caution is warranted from here, especially with the markets getting stretched out, with about an 8% gap between the top and bottom of the Bollinger Bands, which means a correction here could be especially painful. If the Fed disappoints today, look out below!

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1772 (October 29th’s high and the all-time high), and 1788 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1771.
DOWNSIDE: 1764 (October 28th’s high), 1762 (October 29th’s low), 1759 (2 data points), 1757 (October 28th’s low), 1752-1753 (3 data points), 1745-1747 (4 data points), 1740 (2 data points), 1735 (October 18th’s low), 1733 (October 17th’s high), 1729 (September’s high), 1721 (October 16th’s high), 1717 (20 day moving average), 1714 (October 17th’s low), 1711 (2 data points), 1709 (August’s high), 1703 (October 11th’s high), 1700 (October 16th’s low), 1698 (July’s high), 1691-1696 (7 data points and the 50 day moving average), 1687-1688 (2 data points and May’s high), 1680-1682 (2 data points), 1676 (October 8th’s high), 1674 (October 7th’s low), 1670 (October 3rd’s low), 1662 (October 9th’s high), 1660 (October 10th’s low), 1654-1655 (October 8th’s low and June’s high), and 1646 (October 9th’s low and the bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

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9 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. May feel a little pain today. Western Union, which I bought almost a year ago and is up 54% for me has guided to increased compliance costs in 2014 and the stock is trading down this morning about 20%. Disappointing as I was planning to sell November 15. I will still sell, but obviously make less. RPXC, a stock I bought in May and is up 9% appears to have had pretty respectable earnings/guidance. I hope to get a five percent pop. GNW is trading down a percent or two, if that ends up being the case, no big deal.

    • Marshall,
      I agree with you on GNW. Even though they slightly disappointed on the top and bottom lines in their earnings report, I still see them executing their game plan. The misses weren’t enough to significantly hurt the innate value in the company, and I see GNW as more of a value play anyway. If anything, I see this miss as an opportunity for anyone not already in it. I would look at any price near $13 as great place to buy it.

    • Hey Marshall, TC-PT’s dividend is back over 10% with today’s 30 cent drop today after its 40 cent dividend. Are you buying?

      • No, I already have a large position in TC PT. Overall I am not a fan of the copper space as I think China is slowing down their infrastructure buildout. That being said, it is a decent entry point if you do not have a position yet. But everyone needs to have eyes wide open that this stock (and TC) are highly leveraged to price of molydenbrunmum and Copper and those are not within management control.

  2. I bought SCAI IPO in open market today at 27.31. I will be a bit more patient this time (I sold VJET last time too quickly).

  3. I added a small position of SPXU at $17.69. Call it “Fed insurance”.

    • Sold it at $17.70 when I saw the announcement was “no news”. Made a whopping 0.05% on it, which is good for an insurance policy I didn’t have to use. 😉

  4. I added UPRO at $82.65, will sell it at $84.46, or carry it overnight, but only if the S&P 500 finishes down on the day. If it finishes up, I will sell UPRO for best price available. This sell-off is hugely overdone.

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