Ed’s Daily Notes for November 4th   3 comments

Bloomberg: Best Stock Market Since 1997 Seen With S&P 500 Momentum

The broadest equity rally on record will pick up speed through year end and lift the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the biggest annual increase in 16 years, if history is any guide.

Shares have climbed in the final two months 82 percent of the time since 1928 when the benchmark gauge advanced at least 10 percent through October, data compiled by S&P and Bloomberg show. The mean November and December increase of 6 percent would boost the index to 1,862.79, an all-time high that is about 20 percent above the record 1,565.65 set in 2007.

Instead of selling shares to lock in profits during rallies, investors almost always add them in the final quarter, convinced that gains built up over the first 10 months will expand. The S&P 500’s return has been positive over November and December every year since the bull market started in 2009.

My view is to buy cautiously here while keeping a close eye for the exit, which may not come any time soon. Everything depends on the Federal Reserve and the economy. If the economy starts to show real strength (not occasional minor blips to the upside), it could be a foreshadowing of Fed tapering. Of course, the Fed could start to taper at any time without regard to the economy, so keep an eye on them too. The key to the equity markets is the Fed tapering. As long as we have QE, the markets will keep rising.

Financial Times: US retail attempt to end tax-free internet shopping hits buffers

Good news for online shoppers, especially right before Christmas:

A push by big US retailers to end tax-free internet shopping has been sidelined indefinitely in Washington because of opposition from conservatives and Republican leaders reluctant to tackle the issue ahead of elections next year.

The Senate passed a bill with bipartisan support in May that would have allowed states to begin collecting online sales tax, but that effort has stalled in the House of Representatives since last month’s government shutdown.


Posted November 4, 2013 by edmcgon in Economy, Federal Reserve, Market Analysis, News

3 responses to “Ed’s Daily Notes for November 4th

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  1. Yes, and it’s all a fraud Ed. But I’m sure you know that. My very best to you and your family my friend.

    God bless,

    Cus, from the new iPad


    • Cus, I’ve quit trying to be judgemental about the markets. They are what they are, even if their inner workings are fraudulent.

    • Cus, how are you liking the ipad Air? My wife just upgraded from an ipad 1 and she absolutely loves the new model. Big improvement although I’m pretty happy we skipped all the new models in between?

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