Traders Corner   22 comments

With the S&P 500 closing below the 20 day moving average yesterday, that sets the next target at the 50 day moving average, 1801. If the S&P finishes below the 50 day MA, this could be VERY bad. The next solid support is at the 200 day moving average, 1690, which would be over a 7% drop from yesterday’s close.

On a positive note, the weekly technicals have dropped out of overbought territory, and the daily Williams %R is now oversold. In addition, futures are slightly positive this morning. However, my gut feeling is it isn’t time to buy this dip yet.

There are two Federal Reserve presidents giving speeches today, Charles Plosser at 12:45 pm EST and Richard Fisher at 1:20 pm EST. A dovish tone from them could turn markets bullish. Yesterday, the markets turned bearish after another Fed president, Dennis Lockhart, gave a very hawkish speech.

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1823 (January 6th’s low), 1824 (20 day moving average), 1827-1832 (6 data points), 1837-1838 (2 data points), 1840 (2 data points), 1843-1845 (4 data points), 1849 (December’s high and the all-time high), and 1865 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1819.
DOWNSIDE: 1815 (January 13th’s low), 1813 (November’s high), 1801 (50 day moving average), 1775 (October’s high), and 1782 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

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22 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. I will be looking to sell SPXU at $16.24 today. I may double my position prior to that.

  2. TC is spiking in early trading. We all should have added at 1.79 in December!

    • Zosa,
      It is, but…looking over the numbers, I think I might sell at $54. The way I look at it, that locks in a whole lot of the future growth value. Even assuming everything goes their way, I don’t see the stock being worth much more than that, when weighed against the risk of potential failure in any part of their business plans.

  3. Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. (“Thompson Creek” or the “Company”) (NYSE: TC) (TSX: TCM) announced today production and sales results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2013, for its three operating mines, Thompson Creek, Endako and Mt. Milligan. Concentrate production for Mt. Milligan from start-up through December 31, 2013 contained 10.9 million pounds of copper, 21.1 thousand troy ounces of gold and 41.8 thousand troy ounces of silver. Molybdenum production for the twelve month period ended December 31, 2013 was up 34% from the same period last year to 30 million pounds. Sales for the one shipment of concentrate included 2.8 million pounds of copper, 5.5 thousand ounces of gold, and 10.5 thousand ounces of silver. The Company also sold 36.5 million pounds of molybdenum for the year, a 27% increase from the prior year.

  4. I just saw where GAME is down almost 5% today. I wonder if that is just ill informed people thinking that is symbol for game stop (GME) which is down 19% on disappointing Christmas sales.

  5. Trader, Should I wait on uco until next week? Think the news out of Iran could cut oil prices farther?

    • All I can tell you is that it is at the bottom of it’s range. It may go lower but I would be surprised to see a huge drop without some huge event. It looks like it is forming a base but who knows. If you are not comfortable, buy a partial position and you can add more if it goes lower. I never worry about oil. I’ll sell covered calls and over time, I expect to be profitable. Haven’t lost on this one yet.

  6. Bought my first tranche of KLIC at 11.84 this am. Looks like it has bottomed

    • Jeff and Lynn – I appreciate the moral and financial support as KLIC is now my third largest holding. I did re-read the past earnings report and people should be expecting a pretty weak quarter as they are still in turn-around mode. Theoretically they market “knows” this, but there is potential for a brief sell off when they report. That being said, I also think there is a reasonable likelihood that that will be when (the proverbial spoonful of sugar) they make some announcement retarding a dividend and/or share buy back.

    • Thanks for the update Marshall. Appreciate it.

  7. Ed, I’m looking at e mini and see it shows a clear bottom at 3pm Monday. Than after that all night and into the morning the MACD was rising. At between 3, 5 and 7am you can see the divergence is very close to 0. More times than not I see this trend break higher.

  8. Ed, are you going to dump SPXU today if this bounce holds?

  9. Ed, I know you like Sand for their streaming model. Looks like Sand is going to restructure its contracts with “Colossus”, one of its Palladium streamers for significant equity and a significant % of net royalties. Like to know if you’ve had a chance to read up on the deal? and what you think?

    • Jeff,
      I don’t like the deal at all. SAND ends up owning 31% of Colossus under the deal. It’s a bad sign for a streamer when they end up owning the miner. It tells me they shouldn’t have made a deal with them in the first place.

  10. BillR & Trader,
    I’ve been racking my brain over this one. Ultimately, 4 things have decided it for me. First, the daily MACD is still trending negative (although slightly less after today). Second, while the S&P 500 had a good bounce today, it doesn’t look like it will get close enough to yesterday’s high of 1843. Third, while March futures are up today, they are still pointing lower, to 1833. Fourth and final, the Fed seems more determined than ever to end QE, based on what I have read from several of the presidents.

    While I have tried to be objective in looking at this, I will admit this is not perfectly scientific. But I don’t see today’s move as strong enough to counter the downward trend we are in. If we have another good day tomorrow, I’ll eat my words, and that is certainly possible.

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