Traders Corner   21 comments

The S&P 500 bulled through the 100 day moving average on Friday, as the markets shrugged off the U.S. employment report. People who read the report positively (the participation rate was up slightly) were buying on economic hopes. On the other hand, people who read it negatively (only 113k non-farm payroll jobs added) were buying on hope the Fed will cut back or reverse tapering. I expect Fed Chair Yellen will put those latter people back in their place this week. Be careful, because sentiment may shift quickly this week.

As for the technicals, the S&P 500’s P&F chart signaled a low pole reversal on Friday, which is bullish, although the chart still has a long-term bearish target of 1620. The daily Williams %R is back to overbought. Other than that, most technicals are neutral, and futures are slightly negative this morning, so overall anything is possible today.

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1798 (February 7th’s high), 1804 (20 day moving average), 1809 (50 day moving average), 1849-1850 (January’s high, December’s high and the all-time high), and 1873 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1797.
DOWNSIDE: 1784 (February 3rd’s high), 1774-1776 (2 data points and October’s high), 1773 (100 day moving average), 1770 (January’s low), 1767 (December’s low), 1758 (February 4th’s high), 1755 (February 5th’s high), 1752 (February 6th’s low), 1746 (November’s low), 1743 (February 4th’s low), 1740 (150 day moving average), 1735 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1739 (February 3rd’s low), 1737 (February 5th’s low), 1729 (September’s high), and 1711 (200 day moving average).

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Posted February 10, 2014 by edmcgon in Daytrading, Investing, Market Analysis, Technical Analysis

21 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. GTAT is up another 30 cents in pre market trading. CYOU, a Chinese gaming stock is down almost 12% (thankfully it is my smallest position of all my stocks). I did look at the stock REGI over the weekend. While they are cheap, they are too dependent on government subsidies for their profit.

  2. Marshall is CYOU a buy at this price? FYI I sold my full position in GTAT (I think this is my 3rd buy and sell, thank you Marshall) at 10.08 this am.

  3. I took a half position today in IEV. This is an ETF focusing on Europe. This may be a mini theme of mine in 2014. I think US is becoming fully priced and Europe has more potential.

  4. I decided to sell 1/3 of my GTAT today at 11.15. W the the recent run up, it is 60% larger than my 2nd largest position. S. Even selling 1/3 of shares it is still my largest position. I had bought these shares at an average price of 8.92 in early December. So I had a 25% gain. The cost basis on remaining 2/3 is $2.73. If GTAT pulls back significantly in next 45 days (15% or more), I will consider buying the shares back.

  5. Thoughts on COP for a long-term dividend play?

    • I view all the oil majors as priced about the same. They all seem reasonably priced. If I had to pick just one, I would probably go with XOM. But nothing wrong with COP. Great article in bloomberg about Mesa as wooing AAPL to get the GTAT plant there. I was clearly too trigger happy this morning.

  6. Ed, Do you think UPRO could be a good play here? Not saying today, but charts look like we could move higher.

    • Bill,
      It all depends on Yellen. I wouldn’t take any new positions up or down until after we get an idea of what her position will be. While she is known as a dove, the Fed as a whole has been rather hawkish lately. I don’t see her breaking that trend. If anything, the short positions look better for the time being.

  7. Bought MUSA today. John Galt’s (great name) question about COP reminded me that I had looked at MUSA a couple of months ago. They have dropped about 10% since I looked at them. They are gas stations/convenient marts. They were spun off from Murphy Oil in September. Spin offs have been shown to outperform the broader market for many years, so I always keep an eye on them. They are actually quite cheap (I estimate a 13% earnings yield) and they actually have some decent growth plans. Not a sexy business, but pretty well priced and broadly overlooked right now in my view.

    • Marshall, So it’s Murphy USA, we have one at walmart. There ROE and LTD is very high do you know why? What do you mean a spin off or they were spun off I don’t see that?
      They report there 4th quarter on the 20th I’ll put them on my watch list.

      http://ir.corporate.murphyusa.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=251856&p=irol-irhome

      • Bill

        They were part of murphy oil until September. They were then spun off and become an independent company. I would be careful looking at any financial figures as they have only been public since September. You would need to verify that the income was just for murphy USA.

      • Marshall, Thank you I’ll do some checking. As far as a consumer and thinking about the Murphy store we have here. It’s a small store with a main focus on selling gas. I’d love to know how much money is made on inside sales which is higher margin and from my (small) knowledge of gas stations that’s where they make there money.

        Marshall I’m not trying to knock your stock pick your very gifted. These are things I’ll be looking for this week while we get 12″ of snow. BTW thank you for GNW.

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