Traders Corner   27 comments

The McClellan Oscillator backed out of overbought territory, but any strong moves up should probably be shorted here, because the MO is still too close to overbought (at 41, with overbought at 60). Fortunately, sentiment is probably negative enough to keep the markets moving down.

The S&P 500’s Bollinger Bands are still contracting, looking like it is setting up for a big move. With negative sentiment and most technicals closer to overbought, any big move at this time would have to be to the downside. However, we may still be a few weeks or even a few months from a big move.

If the S&P 500 does move down today, the next test will come at the 50 day moving average, 1813. If the S&P 500 blows through that like it isn’t there, this could get really ugly.

Ugly dog

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1830 (February 13th’s high), 1835 (February 18th’s low), 1841-1842 (2 data points), 1847 (February 19th’s high), 1849-1850 (January’s high, December’s high and the all-time high), and 1859 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1828.
DOWNSIDE: 1825-1826 (3 data points), 1823 (February 11th’s high), 1815 (February 12th’s low), 1813 (50 day moving average), 1809 (February 13th’s low), 1798-1800 (3 data points and the 20 day moving average), 1791 (February 10th’s low), 1784 (February 3rd’s high), 1781 (100 day moving average), 1774-1776 (2 data points and October’s high), 1770 (January’s low), 1767 (December’s low), 1758 (February 4th’s high), 1755 (February 5th’s high), 1752 (February 6th’s low), 1747 (150 day moving average), 1745 (November’s low), 1743 (February 4th’s low), 1738 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1739 (February 3rd’s low), 1737 (February 5th’s low), 1729 (September’s high), and 1719 (200 day moving average).

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Posted February 20, 2014 by edmcgon in Daytrading, Investing, Market Analysis, Technical Analysis

27 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. Time to add SCO. Partial position @ 28.66

  2. Marshall, How do you determine when to buy more of specific stock? I am looking at C.

    • Tom – a stock needs to drop at least five percent before I will add. Then I also think about how much I already had and reason for the drop. C seems like a reasonable add here if you can be patient.

  3. Doubled my AVG this am at 18.30. up to 20 now. Great pick Marshall. Thanks

    • Thank you Marshall!!! Bought it the same time as you few months ago.

      • I am glad AVG is doing well for everybody. I need some good news as today gas not been a great day. I was skiing in Switzerland this morning and tore my ACL. Looks like surgery tomorrow. But I am getting great medical care and view out window is fantastic.

      • Marshall, sorry to hear. Get well soon.

      • Sorry to hear that Marshall. I guess if you have to have surgery, a Swiss hospital with a great view is the way to go! 😉

      • Oh no, Sorry to hear that. Take it easy and get well soon!

      • Did the same thing about 5 years ago at Red Lodge Montana. I’m a pretty good skier but I was 50 at the time and was on a hill I really should not have been on. Moguls, big ones!. I still ski but leave the moguls to the 20 somethings. Hope there is minimal damage.

      • Wish you a speedy recovery Marshall. Skiing is one of my favorites and I’d be down too if I were you. On the brightside you were in Switzerland, one of the most beautiful places in the world. Have to focus on the positives in situations like this. Maybe you can come back in 9 months and rush for 2,000 yards like Adrian Peterson. Or in your case rush for a a few 20% gains(seems to be more your style).

        On an unrelated note looks like the market is not very negative on the FB/Whatsapp deal. Funny is that I thought real hard about closing out my options position yesterday and decided to wait just one more day. Always seems to work that way. Either way I think the deal is a positive longer term. However seems overpriced, but hopefully they hired adivsers who know way more than I do about things like this.

      • Thanks for the well wishes. I just spoke to doctor. He did three of these surgeries today. So they see regularly. Tomorrow I will decide whether to do it here or go to larger city ( Lucerne). I have friends trying to see who the best doctors are.

        This whole FB/whatsapp deal is making this feel like 1999 all over again. There are some areas that are unbelievably frothy.

      • I know what you mean Marshall. I was looking at Tesla, which was already overvalued. It reports good earnings, and then becomes obscenely overvalued.

    • Sold all my AVG at 21. I will buy it back when it drops 5%

      • Well I didn’t actually think it would happen today, but my buy hit at 19.75 so I’m back in with a half position. Feeling like a financial wizard (which I most definitely am not!). Might double tomorrow if it drops another 5%.

      • wow, great timing!

      • Thanks Lynn. I didn’t really want to sell but I rarely turn down a 20% gain in one day. So being able to buy back in at 5%+ less was extra nice! Marshall you are a stock picking fiend! Hope your operation goes well. I have a brother in law who is swiss and he always raves about their medical system so it sounds like you are in good hands.

      • Well timed Jeff!

    • Sold my RIOM as well at 2.39. Nice gain thanks to Marshall again. I would have held but I really do have too many miners. I wiil buy back if it falls 10%.

  4. Picked this up at ibankcoin. Watch the correlation between the yen and our market. Yen down, stocks up. You can use FXY. Worth watching.

  5. I still don’t see any weakness in the S&P. Until we see two or three down days followed by weak up days, my guess is at the worst we stay flat. Even if we stay flat, I would expect the volatility to continue. Yesterday was a good example.

  6. I decided to clear out of SQQQ at $52.35. Even in a sideways market, the Nasdaq keeps rising. Anyway, I ate an 18.2% loss on it. Now is not the time to be in leveraged anything for an extended period, since leverage loses value in a sideways market.

  7. Trader Bot SCO today @28.61. Looking at 3/22 calls at 30 for ca. .58
    Lightnin’

  8. I added a new SPXU position at $59.74, will sell it at $60.34 today or carry it into tomorrow (most likely). After today’s upward move, I expect McClellan will be overbought again.

  9. MUSA reported earnings last night. I was underwhelmed. A lot of their income has come from discontinued operations. I am not in love with the continuing piece. I may look to sell today. Also, I got some relatively good news. I am considered fit to fly. So I am heading home today and will at least get to do the rehab and surgery with support of my family. Today will be a very long day. I woke up at 6 am Swiss time (which is midnight back home). I take off at 5:30 from Zurich after a three hour car ride. Then it is a nine hour flight, and finally then two+ hours home from Logan. I have splurged and will fly biz class, where I can have more room.

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