Traders Corner   29 comments

The S&P 500 is starting to get a defined trading range, with the top at 1841-1842, and the bottom at 1823-1826. In the last 4 trading days, 3 of the 4 highs have been at that top, and all 4 lows have been at that bottom.

However, options expiration is today. Although the technicals aren’t pointing a specific direction, we are close to overbought where we aren’t overbought, leaving little room for upward movement. Be careful today.

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1841-1842 (3 data points), 1847 (February 19th’s high), 1849-1850 (January’s high, December’s high and the all-time high), and 1858 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1839.
DOWNSIDE: 1835 (February 18th’s low), 1830 (February 13th’s high), 1823-1826 (5 data points), 1815 (February 12th’s low), 1813 (50 day moving average), 1809 (February 13th’s low), 1798-1800 (3 data points and the 20 day moving average), 1791 (February 10th’s low), 1784 (February 3rd’s high), 1782 (100 day moving average), 1774-1776 (2 data points and October’s high), 1770 (January’s low), 1767 (December’s low), 1758 (February 4th’s high), 1755 (February 5th’s high), 1752 (February 6th’s low), 1748 (150 day moving average), 1745 (November’s low), 1743 (February 4th’s low), 1739 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1739 (February 3rd’s low), 1737 (February 5th’s low), 1729 (September’s high), and 1720 (200 day moving average).

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Posted February 21, 2014 by edmcgon in Daytrading, Investing, Market Analysis, Technical Analysis

29 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. Sold my musa this morning at 39.13. I had bought at 39.07, so I am celebrating with a Starbucks latte at the airport

    • Marshall; wishing you a smooth flight home, a painless or as close to painless as an operation may be, and a speedy recovery.

    • Marshall,
      I was going to ask you what you thought about musa q4 results. I guess I know my answer.?
      Sorry about your accident. Hope the pain isn’t too bad. My brother tore acl MCL and meniscus snow skiing 4 year ago. No pain after the accident and surgery was easy with quick recovery. I can’t get him to ski any more though.

  2. did you get your surgery already?

  3. Still no weakness in the S&P. Price action is still strong. Unless we get a major shock, it looks like flat to higher for now.

  4. Silver is showing strength. No pull back after the big jump. Looks like it might trade sideways for a bit. Can’t tell if it will resolve up or down from here. If you are interested in silver I see two choices. Wait to see if it breaks out to the upside or if you are willing to take more risk put on a partial position here.

    • looks like Silver has shown some strength since your post this morning. Is this a sign that it is breaking out to the upside?? Appreciate your thoughts as always… 🙂

      • ted, it is possible but still too early to tell. Using AGQ, it needs to break above 79.35 and close above that level. Ideally, it would be nice to see it stay above that level for a few days making higher highs. I would like to see the closing price higher than the previous days high. That would show a lot of strength. You can see that develop if you look at a daily chart starting on 2-5. Looks like we maybe starting to see that again. You can look for this in any stock you play. You can also see this in the SPY starting 2-6.

      • typo, should have been 79.55. Thought I better fix that before w_seattle caught it. 🙂

      • :). I’m not that picky. Wait, yes I am.

  5. Thinking about adding to my tcpt today. they are doing well with mt milligan and if prices hold here or move slowly up this could be a big winner.

  6. Looks like oil is starting to breakdown. We’ll need a couple of down days to confirm. If it continues lower, I’ll watch UCO at the 33.50-33.70 level. If we don’t bounce there, then my guess is lower. I’m not selling calls yet.

    • Trader, your good! Don’t know what you saw with oil Thursday but nice gain today.
      I’m going to wait see if it doesn’t bounce around 99 and break even higher.

  7. Bought more AVG at 19.00

    • My two cents. I would be careful here. Look at the daily chart. Notice yesterdays wild move and then the closing price. Notice todays open, move up and now the buyers aren’t willing to pay yesterdays close. Having said that, it’s still early and the price at the close may work out ok. Don’t know if this is a trade or longer term investment. If it is an investment what I’m saying may not matter. If a trade may be best to not get greedy. It will take a few days to see how this plays out.

    • trader, looks like you were right. AVG down to 18.55. I should have waited

      • Jeff, it still may work out. Unless you are daytrading, you can’t make your decisions based on what happens on any given day. See my comments to teds question. It is worth the time to look at the daily charts to see if you can find this price action. It may tell you a lot about what the buyers are willing to pay and help improve your odds. If you are looking for something to do this weekend, look at your daily charts and see if this would have helped you. Just because something is cheaper doesn’t mean it is time to buy. I know you played PRAN yesterday and it didn’t work out for either of us. I was trying to play an intraday move and I knew the daily price action was not good. That made it a high risk trade. At one point I was up 4.5% and didn’t take it. I got greedy on a high risk play. Stupid on my part. I should have posted that this was a high risk trade. I’ll do that next time. Call premiums are still high, so I do have a backup plan if I need it.

      • I’m not worried Trader, I want to be an owner of AVG LT and my sell of a full position at 21 and subsequent repurchase at 19.75 and 19 is just fine. I still have a little room to buy about 1/3rd position more. I could have done better on my re-buys but I’m not unhappy where I am. On AVG at least.

  8. Is anyone still a holder of RGR? I know someone was a holder and am wondering if they are thinking of buying more. I note it has fallen like a rock over the last month and am beginning to wonder if now is the time to buy.

    • Tom, I am still in RGR and planning on staying put. Like the divy and although I am down on this lot I am playing with house money from previous trades. If I see a bottom form I do plan to add more with fresh money. Karl

    • Latetom, I don’t own it and I’m in a talkative mood today so you get my two cents too. Looking at the charts it looks like it could still drop quite a bit from here. I don’t see much upside unless we get another blowup. There is no shortage of firearms or ammunition. If you decide to buy I would recommend covered calls. The March 70’s are bid at 2.45 as I type this. A pretty good pay check for a month and reducing your basis at the same time. It could be a decent long term hold and provide a nice income with the covered calls. Another option would be to sell the March 60 puts. They are bid at 75. You just need to be prepared to buy the stock at 60 if it is put to you.

    • I appreciate your talkative mood today and will take your thoughts to heart. Thanks Trader

      • I also appreciate your review and recommendations.

        Karlnelson, should you see a bottom and/or decide to buy more please post.

  9. I sold my SPXU from yesterday at $60.04, and a 0.50% profit. I’m not sure how deep the drop today will be, or even if it will bounce back.

  10. I have a lot of options that are expiring today. I’ll be called out on GTAT and UCO. Both profitable. Options expiring worthless on EDZ, PRAN, VJET, and KNDI. Nice cash income on those. I’ll look at these next week. If the charts are showing strength I’ll hold of on selling the calls. Looking to add GTAT again. Will probably wait for some strength. Looks like it could move lower from here.

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