Ed’s Daily Notes for February 27th   1 comment

Washington Times: All eyes on Moscow’s military moves in Ukraine

Earlier this week, intelligence agencies reported that two Ural-4320 trucks full of armed Russian troops were observed arriving in the Black Sea port of Yalta. Photographs made by a Ukrainian civilian were posted online as the troop transports entered a Russian military facility in Yalta, on the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine.

Other activities in recent days have included the movement of armored personnel carriers observed at Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters in nearby Sevastopol.

U.S. officials said the purpose of the troops is not known, but speculation centers on the possibility of the troops being used as part of an advance force for a future Russian military operation.

Here’s a thought for you: 30 years ago, during the Cold War, how do you think markets would have reacted to news like this? I can tell you, they would have tanked on fears of a major military confrontation. Yet this is somehow different? It is possible the markets are discounting this situation because the Ukraine isn’t a major world supplier. If Russia does send military into Ukraine, it could actually be good for some companies (think defense contractors). Of course, if this is just a first step towards Russia returning to their Cold War ways, is that a good thing for markets overall?

Bloomberg: Even Warren Buffett Can Be Wrong

Above is a good article by Barry Ritholtz about the overall market cap as a percentage of GDP indicator. He makes a valid bullish argument against the indicator. I won’t say he is right or wrong, as only time will tell the answer to that. I personally think the indicator is something to consider, but not something to make a decision about macro conditions by itself. In fact, I don’t think there is any one indicator (technical or statistic) that will give you the economic picture in one shot.


Posted February 27, 2014 by edmcgon in Market Analysis, News, Technical Analysis

One response to “Ed’s Daily Notes for February 27th

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  1. In my opinion, Russia has too much to loose to just let Ukraine go:
    – Ukraine is a big hub for Russian gas-transport to Europe
    – Ukraine has Russia’s only harbor on the black sea
    – A lot of Russian people are living in the south
    – If Russia let Ukraine walk away, what can they expect with other rebellious area’s like Chechnya?
    And they know US/NATO will not react, as they didn’t react in previous conflicts (Syria for example)

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