Traders Corner   23 comments

S&P 500 futures are down strong this morning. While technicals are near overbought, a drop today wouldn’t be a technical-induced fall. I suspect we are looking at a sentiment move here, especially considering it started in the European markets (which have fallen around 2% overnight). My guess is the markets are getting concerned about whether there will be a Western reaction to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1867 (February’s high and the all-time high), and 1886 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1859.
DOWNSIDE: 1858 (February 24th’s high), 1854 (February 27th’s high), 1852 (2 data points), 1849-1850 (January’s high and December’s high), 1840-1847 (8 data points), 1820 (50 day moving average), 1815 (20 day moving average), 1792 (100 day moving average), 1775 (October’s high), 1770 (January’s low), 1767 (December’s low), 1754 (150 day moving average), 1745 (November’s low), 1744 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1737 (February’s low), 1729 (September’s high), and 1727 (200 day moving average).

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23 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. PRAN 10.67

    • Out for plus 39 3.7% Not taking any chances today.

    • Trader – why do you pick PRAN every morning? Is it just you see a pattern every day within the stock? Is there something that would cause you not to buy it in the first 10 minutes? I know you used to do something similar with JRCC. Is it the volatility of these names that you want?

      Thanks!

      • Marshall, if you look at a daily chart you will see that on most days, it will trade higher than its opening price at some time during the day. The best move usually happens early in the day. Look at a 5 minute chart for the last few days and you’ll see this. If it opens down or somewhat flat from the previous days close I will buy close to the open. If it opens up big I will wait for a pull back and then look for an entry on the 3 minute chart. It may run away from me or head lower, in which case I may not play. I’m trying to play the best odds. PRAN is usually volatile enough that there is 3-4% available for the trade. If someone wants to play this one, set a goal that you are comfortable with and take it if it hits or gets close. It can go down just as fast as it goes up. Yes, volatility is a must. Does anyone know of a stock with a similar pattern?

      • Thanks. It seems that you do very well with this approach. Everyday, 2 to 4%. It must add up!

  2. what are your thoughts on the sell-off?? looks pretty weak right now. I expected it to be much worse…Ofcourse the day isn’t over…

  3. I thought it would be bigger as well

    • So did I. Not sure whether I should take some $ off the table. Has anyone watched CYOU of late? After the poor earnings in early February (where it fell below $26) it has really bounced back sharply and is at 30.68 today.

  4. Wait and see what happens around 10:30. If we’re still dropping then, I’d expect to see the S&P go down to the 50 day MA. Otherwise, I’d take a wait and see approach on it.

    • Why is 10:30 the magic hour?

      • As the Wall Streeters say, “Amateur Hour is over”. More retail investors trade in the first hour than throughout the rest of the day, and the volume numbers support this theory.

        After 10:30, you are seeing more of what the professional traders are thinking in the price action.

      • Not sure what you said. ” retail investors trade”? As a trader, the first and last hour of the day are the most important. Most of the fast action takes place there.

      • By retail investors, I mean non-professionals.

  5. Sold GTAT March 15 calls for .75. Bought the stock on 2-27 for 14.68. Looks like GTAT is going to stay flat for a while. Holding up nicely today. Take a look at your watch list. If you see stocks that are holding up well, you might want to consider buying partial positions towards the close if they continue to hold.

  6. ISM numbers were surprisingly good. We’ll see what tickles the market? Ukraine or actual good econ news?

  7. No worries folks. Kerry is on his way to Kiev. Everything will be ok now.

  8. I have put in a sell order for MBUU today at $18.70. I am very split on this. They announce on Friday, so part of me (the believer) wants to hold through earnings. But I am also a bit overweight on speculative plays, between this and LMNS. My trading day thus far is a bit surreal. I am only down 15 basis points. GTAT, MBUU, FGL, CYOU, cf and RIOM are all up decently.

    • My sell order expired without filling. Hopefully a sign from the stock market gods to be patient and hold through earnings on Friday. I did place a buy order for C at $46.67. It is out there for the next month.

  9. KNDI is another stock with a pattern similar to PRAN. Call premiums are also good. I own KNDI. I have sold calls twice on this one. It has taken off over the last week. I have not been daytrading but I will take a look tomorrow. Nice moves from the open to the highs of the day.

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