Traders Corner   36 comments

The S&P 500 technicals moved closer to overbought, but are not technically overbought yet. The momentum technicals are still bearish, although a bit less so. Futures are on the positive side of flat. But all of this is moot on Fed day, as most of the action will be at 2 pm EST today. Stay tuned…

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1876-1877 (3 data points), 1881-1883 (3 data points and the all-time high), and 1887 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1872, inside the 1870-1874 (5 data points) range.
DOWNSIDE: 1867-1868 (2 data points and February’s high), 1862-1863 (2 data points), 1857-1858 (2 data points), 1856 (20 day moving average), 1854 (March 12th’s low), 1852 (March 14th’s high), 1849-1850 (March 4th’s low and January’s high and December’s high), 1841-1842 (2 data points), 1839 (March 14th’s low), 1834 (March 3rd’s low), 1830 (50 day moving average), 1826 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1811 (100 day moving average), 1775 (October’s high), 1770 (January’s low), 1768 (December’s low and the 150 day moving average), 1745 (November’s low), and 1739 (200 day moving average).

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36 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. I added UPRO at $99.88 in the pre-market. I will sell it at $100.88, or wait until the Fed announcement this afternoon to take advantage of either the initial pop, or the run-up beyond the initial reaction. Remember, the initial move after the Fed announcement is usually the opposite of how the close ends. On top of this, the market does seem to be trending towards bullish momentum.

    • I doubled my UPRO at $98.39, for a new dollar cost average of $99.14. I am lowering my sell price to $100.14 for the entire position, or I may sell for best price later.

  2. Just bought CTCM (Russian TV network) at $9.13. It pays a 70 cent dividend and will be part of my dividend portfolio. Not a play for the faint of heart, but has traded down from over $13 at start of year.

    • Marshall, would the Russian government disallow CTCM from distributing dividends as a retaliation for the (very strong ๐Ÿ™‚ ) economic sanctions imposed by the U.S.?

      • Tom – I suppose that is a possibility. My view is that there will be a lot of saber rattling, but nothing else. Crimea becoming part of Russia again is not exactly an event that I think anyone wants to escalate.

    • followed your buy.. CTCM at 9.12.

  3. In order to fund CTCM purchase and actually raise additional cash, I sold my 6th largest holding this morning – INTC. I had owned them since September 2010. I had added to my holdings eight times over the 3+ years plus reinvested dividends. My average gain was about 18%, which is not dreadful! but trailed Russell 3000 by about 17 points. So I have now sold two of my biggest old tech holdings this year: INTC and CSCO. I think they are solid companies, but I have better places for my cash right now in my view.

  4. Ed – not really sure. Non American companies do vary their dividends more year over year than American companies. They probably had other things they wanted to do with cash that year. Looking at their income statements, I do not see a terrible year.

  5. Sold GTAT mar 22, 2014 19 calls for .35. My cost is 18.70. If it gets called then my profit is .65 or 3.5% for 3 days.

    • Jeff – looks like trader has an apprentice. Seems to be working well for you so far. 3% here and 4% there has to add up over time. Btw, where is trader? He has been quiet.

      • There are some quirks that I need to keep my eye on. For one, as long as I stay covered, my cash is tied up in the trade. Second I need to remember that I still have downside risk to the extent the stock drops more than my premium. Accordingly I think I need to be more careful when my call is of a longer term.

        The GTAT calls seem to be working out extremely well with significantly reduced risk. Obviously would have had better results if I was just long the stock but I’m not sure I’d want to be long at some of these higher prices?

      • Understandable ๐Ÿ™‚
        I’m thinking about those UCO calls I posted. Oil does look to be moving higher. I just don’t want to get stuck in a tight range.

      • I was just looking at the calls for CALL (how could I resist?). They seem to have a very high premium as well. For April 14, the 25 calls are $1.72, with the stock at 24.50. If called out, that would be just shy of a 10% gain in a month.

    • Jeff, Do you still have your march 22 18 calls?

  6. Added marginally (25%) to my LMNS at 12.01.

    • Marshall, you are good!!!! after you bought, it goes up to 3%.

    • Sold it at LMNS 12.51 for a 3% gain and sold RIOM for a 22% loss. OUCH!

      • no more miners!!!! Nice move on LMNS.

      • What Jeff said. ๐Ÿ˜‰

      • lol.. i acutally said that in my head. NO MORE MINERS!

      • Lynn there is always dust and nugt ๐Ÿ™‚ Glad to see you have had good gains lately

      • I have a half position in LYSDY, a rare earth miner which has HUGE! losses that I refuse to sell because basically, there isn’t a whole lot left to lose. My other two miners are not all that much better TC-PT (at least I get a dividend eh?) and FQVLF. All 3 companies actually seem to be executing well on their plans, unfortunately the emerging economies are not cooperating. The only miner I might take a look at (and only if I’m heavily inebriated) is FSUMF. They are an Australian Iron miner that recently completed a multi billion infrastructure project. With the new capacity their break even on Iron ore is very low and I expect that they will have significant cash improvements over the next several months.

        Once again, don’t buy unless you’re liquored up or at least have some other really, really, good excuse for your bad judgement

      • Good luck Jeff,
        I didn’t do much looking into those stock when people were trading them here. My thinking is along the lines of commodities will fall. The only reason the fed is doing what they are doing is to keep deflation risk low.

      • Thanks BillR, just saw a Seeking Alpha article on LYSDY

        http://seekingalpha.com/article/2096393-lynas-cant-afford-further-delays?isDirectRoadblock=false&source=email_rt_article_readmore&app=1&uprof

        This is another Jim Jubak pick that is biting the dust. I love his Macro views but his stock picking has really sucked. Like I said above, I’m not selling now. Unfortunately I let this one get away from me and I learned some new, expensive lessons.

      • Thank you for the article. I’ve had expensive lessons as well.

  7. Marshall between LNC or MET which one do you like better now and for the Long Term?

  8. With the current economic outlook what is your take on the shipping stocks, like SB or NM?

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