Traders Corner   30 comments

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral, leaning overbought
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish, trending bullish
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral, leaning overbought
S&P 500 Futures (June): Flat, leaning positive
Overall: Watch that ceiling at 1893, which is forming solid resistance. If the market likes today’s jobs report, we could break through it, but a breakthrough could be difficult to maintain with the pull of the Bollinger Bands. On the other hand, if the market decides it doesn’t like the jobs report, a drop to the 20 day moving average at 1866 isn’t out of the question. In other words, market sentiment will only carry the market only so far to the upside today, but can go pretty far to the downside.

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1893 (2 data points and the all-time high and the top of the Bollinger Bands).
DOWNSIDE: 1885 (April 1st’s high), 1882-1883 (2 data points and March’s high), 1867 (February’s high), 1866 (20 day moving average), 1849-1850 (January’s high and December’s high), 1839 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1837 (50 day moving average), 1834 (March’s low), 1824 (100 day moving average), 1785 (150 day moving average), 1775 (October’s high), 1770 (January’s low), 1767 (December’s low), and 1753 (200 day moving average).


30 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. I saw a note this morning on GNW, which is my third largest holding. It said that 7,000 April calls at $19 were purchased yesterday, a huge volume spike. I have suggested several times on this board that there are some potential catalysts out there to spike GNW share price, including re-initiation of a dividend or announcement of IPO of their Australian business. With the option activity, I wonder if an announcement is coming soon. I may add to my position today.

  2. Marshall, you are right, there are a ton April calls at 19. Somebody is selling and somebody else is buying a lot of these calls. Don’t know what that means? I have to get better at reading these tea leaves.

  3. Extremely frustrated. Limit order on the FB calls at 1.41 was missed by a penny. Then connection issues in the office today cost me my opportunity to sell for a profit. Underwater on it now. I’ll see how it goes the rest of the morning. Maybe the tides will turn for me.

    • Limit orders I was able set at 1.20 and 1.22 hit. Connection issues still a problem, forced to work off the phone which is not the best. This one would have been very good to play both ways today and now im mad at the missed opportunity, so prob will busy myself with other things til I cool down.

  4. One of my indictors is starting to show weakness in the SPY daily chart. Has a pretty good track record of leading a change in the trend. Doesn’t mean we are going to get a correction. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback soon.

    • Boy did you call that Trader. Your crystal ball is better than guy’s concha shell from the commercial.

  5. Closed my Apr $32 Fcx puts for +.82. June Btu’s still holding strong but it’s early so no surprise there.

  6. I’m getting a little frustrated with my AAPL shares. Its one of my largest positions and its just not doing anything. In addition I’m just not hearing anything in any news that might excite the market beyond a new phone sometime in late 2014. The stock looks very cheap relative to its competitors but there appears to be better uses for the cash elsewhere? HMIN, CTCM, LNG, or CALL

    Any thoughts?

  7. Follow up to yesterday’s what am I going to do with my money. Although I only have a little less than 10% in cash I have place two limit buys:
    ARR at $4.15 and CIM at $3.01. Both are small buys of roughly a 1/3 position to add to existing positions. These are long term holds to collect monthly or quarterly dividends. I don’t intend to sell either of these in the next couple of years.

  8. What would you do?

    My problem is I was foolish enough to buy NUGT in 2012 and 2013. By the time I understood I had one hell of a looser I was down more than the stock was worth selling it for – down 60%. I sold off a portion as a loss to offset gains on other equity sells for 2013 tax purposes.

    In the last two months the NUGT I still own has bounced between 80 to 90% DOWN. My thoughts are to hold until the end of the year, sell more shares at a loss to offset other gains for tax purposes and roll over any left shares to 2015 (to again sell and off set against gains for income tax purposes). I also could sell all the remaining NUGT and use some of it as a carry forward capital gain loss rather than holding and selling in 2014 and maybe 2015.

    Part of my thought process is if I sell now I lose shares of NUGT and no matter what I then purchase I will be purchasing much fewer shares. The new (purchase) stock will have to go up much higher to gain back what NUGT has to go up (because I own more shares) to get back to even (and believe me I will have sold everything before it gets to even).

    Any recommendations?

  9. take a look at the may 7 22.50 calls for mu. they are selling for 2.70. 10% + premium at current price

  10. So when GTAT falls hard, does it become GSPLAT?

  11. I went back and not only is this by far worst day of the year, but in actual dollar terms, it is 6th worst since mid 2009 when I started tracking. The worst series of days for me was in early August 2011 when the govt could not get debt ceiling negotiations by August 1st deadline. On a percentage basis, further down list (#34) and worst since June 20th 2013.

  12. No reason to panic yet. 50 day ma on the S&P is around 1840. Based on what I am looking at, I think there is a good chance we’ll get there over the next few days. We’ll have to see if that looks like a buy the dip opportunity.

  13. Bought ILF along with AND in February nice run since then and green today!

  14. Looking across my portfolio it is pretty telling. I have four stocks out of 34 in the green: PM, NTC (CT muni CEF), FSC (BDC) and RIOM (gold miner). So long bond-type investments and gold, short everything else. Well, except some emerging markets.

  15. Sold April 15 Call on SWHC for .65 looking to protect a little on the downside. Stock is looking strong today so I’ll likely buy back if the call drops 30%

    Jeff good example today with GTAT. I think yesterday or the other day you were saying you felt there was some profit you left on the table. Never know where it will be tomorrow.

  16. Marshall, Moodys upgraded MET yesterday, will this give them a boost going forward? Not today unfortunaltely@!

  17. Bobb – I think Moody’s upgrades carry extremely little weight.

    • To expand on that, rating agencies are more reactive than proactive. So in most cases, the stock and bond markets will price in weakness or strength before the rating agency reacts.

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