S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bearish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral, leaning overbought
S&P 500 Futures (June): Flat, leaning negative
Overall: Yesterday’s nice pop was just a speed bump for the bearish momentum in the S&P 500. With two of the TBTF banks reporting earnings tomorrow, markets might be a bit more reserved today.
The S&P 500 levels to watch today:
UPSIDE: 1882-1885 (3 data points and March’s high), 1891 (top of the Bollinger Bands), 1893 (2 data points), and 1897 (April 4th’s high and the all-time high).
LAST CLOSE: 1872 (April 9th’s high).
DOWNSIDE: 1867 (February’s high), 1863-1864 (2 data points and the 20 day moving average), 1854 (April 8th’s high), 1852 (April 9th’s low), 1849-1850 (January’s high and December’s high), 1842 (50 day moving average), 1841 (April 7th’s low), 1837 (April 8th’s low), 1835 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1834 (March’s low), 1827 (100 day moving average), 1791 (150 day moving average), 1775 (October’s high), 1770 (January’s low), 1767 (December’s low), and 1759 (200 day moving average).
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Ed's Talking Stock 
Looking at an interesting stock this morning. I may have mentioned it here back in February. GSOL. They are involved in facilitating import/export business from China to the west. They are based in Hong Kong. I first took a pass as I was worried about trade decreasing. But they were/are exceedingly cheap. Of their $8.75 share price (they wee $6.70 when I looked at them in February), they have $4.00 of cash per share. They made 90 cents a share in 2013.
The interesting part is they have announced their intent to have a tender offer before the end of April at $10 a share, to buy back about 14% of outstanding shares. So theoretically, you can buy the shares today at $8.75 and tender them (before the end of April) at $10 a share. I do not know about the rest of you, but a 14% return in under a month looks pretty appealing.
My worry would be that in that tender press release it says that their directors and officers are planning to tender their shares… and they own almost half of the 34M shares. I would be nervous that my shares would be behind theirs in line (only 5M shares are being repurchased) and my tender would not go through. I’m not sure how they assign priority…or if there is a general standard…
Interesting point Joel. That would probably lead to a ton of lawsuits if the D&Os assigned themselves a dispproportiate amount of the shares.
Even if they do it proportionally… if I buy 1000 shares I own .003% of the outstanding shares. that would equate to 147 shares being accepted (.003% * 5,000,000 shares) of my tender (assuming i tender all 1000, and all other owners tender 100% of their shares). Anyway a little too much uncertainty for me. That being said financials of the company look pretty good so owning the shares post tender may not be a terrible outcome.
Really starting to feel increased volatility. I took a look and over the past year, three of my six worst days have been this month. And 3 of best 22 are this month as well. While I understand the sell off in a sector like bio tech, I also think some babies are being thrown out with the bath water. It is a bit of a weird day, for such a sell off, I have more stocks/securities than I would expect in the green. BBEP (a bit bond like), GA (being taken over, so limited downside), NTC (municipal bonds), PM (bond like), RIOM (gold) and TPVG (bond like). So in troubled times, people are flocking towards bond like and gold investments.
One other interesting news item I saw this morning. I think a couple of people here may own ATVI with me. This is the maker of video games, such as call of duty. I bought them because Vivendi was selling their majority stake and the senior management of ATVI actually placed a lot of their own money into ATVI. I felt they must be pretty comfortable with the outlook. Vivendi now has the option to sell more of their shares (they still own 12% of company). This flood of sales could cause a dip in price and create a buying opportunity if you believe in ATVI story. MF had a good article on this special situation today.
Marshall,
ATVI could be interesting to me down in the $16-17 range. At the moment, it’s fairly priced, but that’s assuming slow economic growth (like we have now).
I would be surprised if it comes down that much. Maybe a 5% drop. I disagree it is fairly priced. Still looks pretty cheap to me.
Compared to other stocks, perhaps. But most stocks look overpriced to me.
Have you looked at GLUU, more of a spec play but has been around for awhile, good footprint in mobile. Just announced a new James Bond game to come out next year around the time next movie release.
Bobb,
GLUU is a cash bleeder. For a company with as many games as they have out, cash bleeding is not a good sign. They need a big hit.
TC nice pop today after releasing production update.
In spite of my “no more miners” rule, I’m actually thinking of picking up some more TC-PT especially since they have another dividend later this month.
Jeff – I was curious to see how TCPT and TC have moved. If you bought TC on April 13 last year, it has gone from 2.83 to 2.59. If you bought TC-PT that same day, it has gone from 15.80 to 15.03, but you have collected $1.61 in dividends. I suspect in a strong uptrend, TC-PT would trail TC.
Marshall it does seem to trail TC. I’m guessing primarily because of the extremely low volume. I also agree that at least to date, the shares are a little under water or flat while the divi’s have saved the investment to some extent.
Regardless of the stock and divi, I have been very impressed with managements abilities to hit there goals consistently. This seems to be a very well managed miner and they seem to be firing on all cylinders at their new Mt. Milligan site. If the miners every do start moving up, this is one I’m going to keep my eyes on for additional investments.
Silver continues to look good. Technicals are gaining strength. Down days are followed by up days with closing prices higher than closing prices on previous up days. Another good sign, no one is talking about it on CNBC.
Active morning as I move towards more cash. I sold KANG that I bought yesterday at small loss. Net of trades on KANG yesterday and today was a decent gain, but I decided I have enough high beta stocks. I also sold rest of my CALL. This was a 15% loss. I have been looking at available apps and decided CALL really does not have anything unique. Finally, I took a small position in GSOL. The stock frankly is too lightly traded, so I may just be happy with what I have.
Starting to look like a day of indecision. If this continues today, this favors the downside. If we move lower we will probably see the 50 day ma again. Around 1845. I see no reason to be concerned about the market unless it breaks below its trading range.
We’re approaching the 50 day quicker than I expected. If that doesn’t hold the next level to watch is around 1830. That is the 100 day and the bottom of the recent range. I don’t think the 50 will hold this time. We won’t be oversold at a level that will bring in the buyers in a big way. Odds are better at 1830.
Ed, since you are bearish, why no inverse etf’s?
Speak of the devil…I just added SPXU at $58.65.
Trader,
To give a more accurate answer, when the market is dropping, I’m actually gaining in my IRA, being all cash. I have no incentive to play.
Somebody just did a huge dump on the S&P 500 at 3:02, selling over 4 million shares, which is pretty high for late afternoon.
Marshall, did you just liquidate? 😉
Ed – I have just been standing in the kitchen feeling the heat. I did follow trader earlier today on TZA and made 2.5%. But it is a mere drop in the bucket against the torrent of red.
Marshall, if it makes you feel any better, my 401k is down about 2.5% so far today
Owwie! for me as well. Although I did go further into cash yesterday. I’m about 30% right now and with some calls about to exercise tomorrow, even more so. Hope GTAT stay above 16
I sold SPXU at $59.45 for a 1.36% profit.
Sold TZA from 4-7 for plus 67 4%. Didn’t want to risk the profit as we get close to the 100 day. Might be some support there. I still have more.
Hey TCPT had huge volume today (for TCPT anyway). At the end of the day, someone made 2 100,000 share purchases?? Wonder what that means? The stock is up over 8% today. Wonder what’s going on?
TC is up over 6.5% on 4x normal volume. Their production report was good, but was it that good?
Late corrected press release increasing the total mined concentrate from Mt Milligan from 22.2 thousand dry metric tons to 28.2, large correction to the upside.