Traders Corner   23 comments

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral
S&P 500 Futures (June): Negative
Overall: Options expiration today! On top of this, we get no Federal Reserve treasury purchases today, and tomorrow is a market holiday. This looks like a day made for bears, and the futures reflect that.

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1867 (February’s high), 1872 (2 data points), 1882-1885 (3 data points and March’s high), 1893 (2 data points), and 1897 (April 4th’s high and top of the Bollinger Bands and the all-time high).
LAST CLOSE: 1862, inside the 1862-1864 (3 data points) range.
DOWNSIDE: 1858 (20 day moving average), 1854 (April 8th’s high), 1852 (April 9th’s low), 1849-1850 (January’s high and December’s high), 1848 (50 day moving average), 1846 (April 16th’s low), 1844 (April 15th’s high), 1841 (April 7th’s low), 1837 (April 8th’s low), 1834-1835 (2 data points and March’s low), 1830 (April 10th’s low), 1829 (100 day moving average), 1820 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1814-1816 (3 data points), 1796 (150 day moving average), 1775 (October’s high), 1770 (January’s low), 1767 (December’s low), and 1764 (200 day moving average).

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23 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. Not sure if anyone is interested but here is a online link to the book Margin of Safety by Seth Klarman. It is considered on of the best books on investing with many fans including Buffet.
    I have just found this link so I have not read it as of yet but intend to this weekend.

    http://www.kraemerschwab.com/en/documents/seth-a.-klarman-margin-of-savety/view-2.html

  2. hoping for GTAT to move under 16 by the end of the day so calls expire. Otherwise I bought and sold a bunch of CCs yesterday to move most expiration dates out into May. With the up day yesterday, I was able to get some nice premiums and was also able to protect for a continued down market.

    Thanks Trader and mdista. these CC’s are really working well.

    • Glad they are working for you. The market this year has been perfect for covered calls. That will continue as long as we stay flat or move down.

  3. I’m getting mixed signals today. Probably have to wait until next week to get a better picture.

  4. I hope some of you followed me on my buy of SNDK back on February 1st. They just announced a blow out quarter and are trading up 9% today. They are up 20% since I bought them. PM also announced earnings this morning, I actually thought they were pretty good, but stock is down 3%.

    • Marshall do you still think SNDK is a buy here?

      • Jeff – I still think they are very reasonably priced. In my view they should get to $95 to $100 over next 12 months. They made $1.44 on non gaap basis in the quarter and are very bullish on growth and margins going forward. Then they have $2,7b of c ash and cash equivalents on balance sheet with just 1.1b of long term debt.

  5. If it gets back to 83 or so I’m buying and then selling some calls to reduce my cost. Premiums are sky high at the moment.

    Thanks Marshall

    • Some interesting stocks. I actually follow PODD as my daughter is a T1D and uses their insulin pump. It is a very innovative product, but they are have some quality control issues right now. RIGL is one that has been on my list before. They have a ton of cash and if they can start making $ they could go up sharply. AEO is another one. Teen retailers have really been out of favor, but at some point they should bounce back some. They have a ton of cash and pay a dividend. A lot of names on list retailmenot, linkedin, 3d printing, I would not even consider. Just not my style.

    • ojunker,
      I think I got more industry ideas from the list than actual companies.

      FCX is always an interesting stock, although I think it could come down a little more before I’d be interested. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if there are other mining companies that could be bargains now.

      The other one that struck me was Diana Shipping.(DSX). While I don’t care for that particular company, the shipping industry in general could be nearing a bottom soon.

      Marshall,
      You mentioned 3d printing. While I think that industry could be big, I also think it is far too competitive too soon. While that is great for customers in the long-run, it’s lousy for investors. It’s like trying to pick a Kentucky Derby winner in a 20-horse field.

      • I have been in SB in shipping a little more conservative play but has done well over last year and the management has skin in the game as I think they own 51% of the company.

    • 3D printing has so far to go before it will be what it is hyped to be today, I will probably be dead and buried by that time.

      First off 3D printing is not as new as people think. It has been around for a very long time. Yes the prices have come down and they have added some new materials, but still it is very expensive if you are talking about using it as an individual. What’s more it is extremely slow. On top of that you don’t just say “make me this thing, just how I imagine it”, and it does it. So you have to spend quite a bit of time put into the design of what you want.

      You have to be a very serious about making prototypes for this to be worth it to you. And frankly most people don’t need things that are little nicknacks that are “tailored exactly to them”. It is usually much cheaper and easier to just, buy what you need.

      I see the progress much more likely to benefit the people that are already using it in their industries, then to breaking into the “mass market”.

  6. I own PM, they beat on earnings and raised guidence but are down because even though raised prices are selling less cigarettes. Wondering if anyone else owns PM and what they are thinking at this point about the stock?

    Also have thought about selling and getting into a etf but there is none that invest in so called Vice stocks, I know there is the Vice Mutual fund. Wondering thoughts on PEJ which is an ETF that invest in Leisure, also GLPI a new spinoff Reit from Penn Gaming, or FUN which pays a good dividend and seems to fly under the radar.

    • ojunker,
      Even though I’m partial to RAI, I don’t really see a reason to sell PM, unless you just recently bought it? If you’re sitting on a good profit, I’d let it ride.

      • Bought it years ago…around 51. Sold some off over that time as it became to large of a position in portfolio and simply have reinvested the dividends.

      • ojunker,
        Don’t you DARE sell that stock! With that cost basis, that’s a “hold forever” position. PM will have to do something really significantly stupid to merit selling it now.

      • Ed – do you really believe that? I hate to sell a stock I have owned for a number of years as there are tax implications and I generally really understand the company. But my view is that ownership should really be based on where I think a stock is going, and the price I paid should theoretically not play a role in the decision (though psychologically it does).

      • Marshall,
        In a case like PM, you own the stock more for safety than growth. After several years of reinvested dividends, and especially when you have a safety margin on your original investment, why would you sell it? The only reason I can think of to sell it is gross mismanagement, and PM hasn’t displayed that.

        If I were Ojunker, I wouldn’t even be entertaining the thought of selling PM. The dividend reinvestment play is one of the best long-term plays, if you can get the right stock. Ojunker is sitting in the sweet spot with this one. Let it ride.

    • I own PM and am pleased. I bought at end of February and am up about 6.5%. Very happy with dividend and earnings. I will not hold forever, but expect to hold for a year+. RAI and LO have done better since I jumped in PM, but I wanted the international exposure and like the brand.

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