Traders Corner   22 comments

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral
S&P 500 Futures (June): Flat (leaning positive)
Overall: I won’t make any predictions today, but after 5 straight positive trading days, I have to wonder if we aren’t overdue for a flat or even slightly negative day.

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1882-1885 (3 data points and March’s high), 1893 (2 data points), 1896 (top of the Bollinger Bands), and 1897 (April 4th’s high and the all-time high).
LAST CLOSE: 1871, inside the 1871-1872 (3 data points) range.
DOWNSIDE: 1869 (April 17th’s high), 1867 (February’s high), 1862-1864 (4 data points), 1858 (20 day moving average), 1856 (April 17th’s low), 1854 (April 8th’s high), 1853 (50 day moving average), 1852 (April 9th’s low), 1849-1850 (January’s high and December’s high), 1846 (April 16th’s low), 1844 (April 15th’s high), 1841 (April 7th’s low), 1837 (April 8th’s low), 1834-1835 (2 data points and March’s low), 1831 (100 day moving average), 1830 (April 10th’s low), 1820 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1814-1816 (3 data points), 1799 (150 day moving average), 1775 (October’s high), 1770 (January’s low), and 1767 (December’s low and the 200 day moving average).


22 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. 32% cash. Plan to stay here for a week or so.

  2. Marshall, GTAT is scheduled to report on May 7th. Any thoughts on how the quarter will look?

    • Trader – wish I knew the answer to that question. They have already signaled that they will lose money this quarter. S the real open question is how much transparency/guidance do they give on the future. Obviously, I am bullish on the name, so I plan to hold all my shares through the call. Then I do have a group of shares I could sell some calls on and will consider that post May 7th.

  3. Still don’t see a lot of strength in the market. Looks like we continue flat for now.

    • Trader, hypothetical question. Let’s say, as in the case of GTAT I have a bunch of CCs limiting my gains above 17 and 18 but I think the stock is going much higher? Am I limited to buying new shares or buying the Calls to close at a loss? Is there some other technique to capture the additional gain?

      • Jeff, one of the downsides of covered calls is you do limit your upside potential. That is why they work best in a flat or down market. If you think a stock will move much higher then I would suggest you do not sell calls or go for a higher strike price. If you sell calls, you could stay with a short time frame and collect a smaller premium. You would then look to make your gain on being called out. If you plan to hold the stock for a longer period, you could do what Marshall did on GTAT. I believe he sold Sept 22’s for 2.90. Unless GTAT drops big, it looks to me like he is a winner whether he is called out or not. You could also look to ladder you positions with different strike prices and expiration dates. My goal with GTAT is 5% a month. As long as I get that, I don’t care what it does. Have to remember the goal is consistent winners over time. Reaching for a home run every time at bat is going to lead to a lot of strike outs.

      • Sorry working all day. As usual Trader, thanks for your thoughts.

        Having a great week. My solar stocks are screaming up SCTY and YGE. GTAT and LNG are also having some amazing days. Even my TCPT is doing well. Up 5% today and I am now dead break even on what was a -20% stock. Might have to take another look at Marshall’s RIOM.

        Forget I just said that. NO MORE MINERS!

  4. Added SPXU at $54.98.

  5. Well, I got a relief rally in TWOU today and used it to sell the shares I had bought post IPO at essentially a wash (I lost $115). You could have bought them a couple days ago at $12.75 and today they popped north of $14. So at least I am moving down my intended path of moving away from some of my momentum names. The last one left (and it is a big one) is LMNS. My portfolio is having another great day, up over 1%. Been quite a run from last week, when I was just above break even for the year and am now up over 7%.

  6. Marshall, MET hiked dividend today, was it as much as you maybe thought?

    • I am pleased with the hike, 27% is great. It is troubling they are not buying back more stock, as that is almost immediately accretive. It looks like the holdup is they are being considered as a sifi, and in all honesty that brings a lot more pain. I am not sure why they are systematically important. I can see Bank of America or JPM. But Met? Are they involved in so many things that their bankruptcy could threaten the financial system?

      • Well its good that they raised the dividend as they had been waiting for the govt to tell them if they were systematically important, finally they like PRU and AIG said forget you and went ahead without the govt. decision. It seems to me that PRU/AIG also went ahead with stock buybacks without clarification from the govt.. Maybe that will be next for MET?

  7. Increased my FGL position by 25% today at 21.95. Unless I really do not understand this company, they should be $26 to $28.

  8. Turned out to be a monster day for me, up just shy of two percent. Some points of interest on stocks I discuss here. I have been a proponent of KLIC for over a year here. Not only are they profitable, but they have over $7 in cash per share. I have said they just need a catalyst – share repurchase, initiation of dividend or activist involvement to get the stock moving towards a $16 to $18 range. Well, today an activist has appeared. They stock shot up sharply from $12.60 to $13 on the news in final 30 minutes. I predict they will be up sharply again tomorrow.

    Then GNW was up 4.7%. I have mentioned here before they have four catalysts to increase share price. First the Australian IPO, which is moving forward, but I do not think has really been priced in, second continued improvement in their mortgage insurance segment, which has been a real drag on earnings past five years – MTG (a competitor announced earnings today that were very good, so I am now very positive on that catalyst), third higher interest rates, which is beneficial to a life insurers income (has slowed down a bit and likely explains pullback in price last month) and fourth re initiation of dividend (probably after IPO and after stock price gets closer to book value).

    RIOM (a stock I increased my holdings 40% yesterday) was 6.7%. Not really quite sure why, but WSJ had an article about how the gold industry is where the energy industry was a decade ago and that consolidation is a natural step to reduce costs and gain efficiencies.

    • nice little day 🙂

    • Marshall, thank you. I bought a half position of KLIC on 1/13/14 for $11.82 and am up 10.07%. Also bought half position of RIOM on 2/11/14 at $2.11 & down -5.91%. Missed increasing my RIOM today by 2 cents but would rather have it go up 6.7% than own more.

    • Very nice Marshall. I may have to change my NOMO miners! Looks like they are finally getting some respect. I might stick with TCPT because of the dividend.

      GTAT is doing great lately. Thanks for your pick.

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