Traders Corner   24 comments

Pre-market movers

UP: AAPL, FB
DOWN: none

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures (June): Flat (leaning positive)
Overall: This morning seems strangely quiet in the markets. The calm before the “sell in May” storm?

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1893 (2 data points), 1897 (April’s high and the all-time high), and 1903 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1883, inside the 1882-1885 (6 data points and March’s high) range.
DOWNSIDE: 1877-1880 (4 data points), 1869-1873 (8 data points), 1867 (February’s high), 1863 (20 day moving average), 1860 (50 day moving average), 1849-1850 (January’s high and December’s high), 1836 (100 day moving average), 1834 (March’s low), 1823 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1814 (April’s low), 1806 (150 day moving average), and 1775 (October’s high and the 200 day moving average).

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24 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. Marshall what is your take and thoughts on MET earnings?

  2. Ojunker – as met is in my kids college funds, I take a very macro/long term view on MET. I saw absolutely nothing to be worried about. My key metric is book value per share. Excluding aoci, it went up 4%, which for a quarter is very good. Including aoci, it dropped 1%. That is not surprising, as interest rates rise, you expect bond holdings to lose value. I think met is well positioned globally, I think they will benefit from interest rte movement as they eventually get back to normal. CNBC was asking what stock would you buy for the next 25 years, and MET would be high on my list do to their relative cheapness right now, their global positioning and they sell a needed product that can not be outsourced. I will likely double down on MET for kids college funds later in 2014 if it remains under $55.

  3. TZA 17.34

    • Out at 17.76 for plus 42 2.4%

      • nice one trader

      • Same old dog, same old trick. 🙂

      • Old dog yes, trick? No. 🙂

      • Always tempted to jump in with you on the Tza trades. But the few times I have tried it my stomach start churning. Impressive how you consistently make it work.

      • Nice one trader, but like Marshall, triple leverage scares me unless I can singularly focus on the trade.

      • I understand that the leveraged etf’s are not for everyone. There are some things that can help minimize the risk. At this point small caps are in a down trend while the S&P is flat. Odds are better with the small caps. If the daytrade doesn’t work, I don’t mind holding for a swing trade as long as the trend is favorable. Options are available for TNA/TZA including weekly. Weekly are not available for UPRO/SPXU. One more tool in the box. I watch for trends to improve my odds. The best play on TZA right now is the early morning trade, especially if it opens down. This is very important. I use the 5 minute charts to look for intraday patterns. Set a reasonable goal and take it if it gets there. These leverage etf’s can move against you in a hurry. I watch the 3 and 5 minute charts for my entry point. If I like what I see in the technicals, I’m in. As long as I am playing with leverage, I prefer more volatility which is usually in the small caps. If you are going to take the risk, the reward should be worth while. You can pick stop losses if you like. I don’t like to use them since I have other tools available if I get into trouble. I’m not trying to convince anyone to trade leveraged etf’s. Just sharing my approach for those who are interested.

  4. I added SPXU at $54.53.

  5. Having a great day. My scty is up over 6%, Gtat over 5% and LNG up about 2%

  6. Marshall, I have a little money available for a flyer. Do you really think LMNS has the potential for a good earnings report or you just praying it does? Are they a candidate for my flyer $s?

    • Jeff – I could not recommend LMNS. I believe they are way too beaten up, but the action has me worried that someone knows something. Looking at my stocks, if I were to take a flyer going into earnings I would go with avg. I will likely buy some prior to their May 7th earnings.

  7. I already own some AVG (probably from your recommendation) and I agree they are a good choice. Thanks Marshall

  8. Sold of 3rd the four positions I bought on 4/28. GNW – bought at 16.76 and sold at $18.00 for a 7% gain. WB and LMNS were also sold at respectable gains (though WB is up over 12% since I sold). Last holding is FGL – I plan to hold them through their earnings call on May 8th (they are up 6% for me since I bought shares on the 28th).

    I still love GNW and FGL, just like to have cash for occasional swing trades when I see opportunities. (My sale of GNW represented 14% of my total shares).

  9. A quick heads up to the board about FGL, a stock I own and have recommended here. I was re reading their last earnings report and their S1 from their IPO. One of the reasons I have been a fan was their 4th quarter earnings were 87 cents a share and their book vale per share was $27.03 (all in) and $24.88 excluding AOCI. For a stock trading a bit under $22, those all seem like very good numbers. But when I re read more closely this afternoon, they use a measure called “weighted average diluted shares” in the denominator for those calculations (about $49 million shares). But their actual number of total shares outstanding is a bit over 58 million. In reading everything, the 58 million includes the new shares from the IPO. So it seems wrong to me to calculate a book value metric using the year ending balance sheet, which has the IPO proceeds in it) but to use the weighted average shares in the denominator (which only has a small percentage of the IPO shares in it). I have sent a question to IR about this. It may technically be correct, but seems very misleading to me. If you use the actual shares outstanding, it is about an 18% haircut on BV and 4th quarter eps. That is certainly enough (for me) to take FGL from a strong buy to a hold, maybe even sell as I feel they should have been more forthcoming. I will wait until I hear from IR (or end of day tomorrow) before deciding what to do.

  10. FLR, one of my holdings just reported earnings. The good news is that their backlog is growing. The bad news is that they reduced full year guidance a bit. I suspect the stock will sell off a couple percent tomorrow. They are booming in their oil & gas segment, but construction everywhere else seems limited. Not sure how that plays in an investment thesis, but I felt we would start seeing more construction and investment across the entire US economy in 2014 and I am starting to question that. Until business start investing more, our recovery will limp along.

  11. I already own CBI which IMO is the best company in that space, but FLR looks interesting as it will open tomorrow below the 200 DMA . Down 2 1/2 bucks in AH at 7pm est.

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