Traders Corner   24 comments

Pre-market movers

UP: AAPL, FB, TSLA
DOWN: GOOGL, SDRL, VZ

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Neutral (trending bullish)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures (June): Flat (leaning positive)
Overall: We have a mixed bag this morning, with stocks looking to have a positive, yet sluggish start.

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1885 (May 5th’s high), 1888 (May 1st’s high), 1891 (May 2nd’s high), 1897 (April’s high and the all-time high), and 1902 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1884.
DOWNSIDE: 1883 (March’s high), 1878 (2 data points), 1866-1867 (May 5th’s low and February’s high), 1863 (20 day moving average and the 50 day moving average), 1849-1850 (January’s high and December’s high), 1839 (100 day moving average), 1834 (March’s low), and 1823 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

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24 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. I added UPRO in the pre-market at $100.90. If pre-market MACD is any indication, this should be a good play.

  2. Today will be an active day for me. Every quarter I buy five stocks (per Joel Greenblatts approach) and hold for a year. May 6th is an anniversary date. The five stocks I bought a year ago (CF, KLIC, CYOU, RDA and NVDA) performed very well, up an aggregate 33.3%. I will sell them tomorrow, making sure I pay long term capital gain taxes. Today I will roll the pot into five new stocks. I may make a last second change (if I see a favorite selling off sharply this morning) but my most likely five new stocks are CSCO, CA, AVG, RCII and NSR.

    WNR announced earrings this morning, they are part of my February quarter tranche of five stocks (which is up 11%). They seemed solid to me at first blush. ATVI, which is a large holding for me, reports after the bell this evening.

    • Marshall, Do you ever roll over any of your yearly quarterly buys? Example: would you buy CF in May 2014 after buying it in May 2013?

      Also, I know you sometime add to a previous buy. If you bought CF in May 2014 and then more in Nov 2014 would you sell both buys in May of 2015 or only sell the May 2014 buy in 2015?

      • Tom, I would certainly consider to continue holding an expiring stock. But in that event, I would still rebalance it so it was 20% of that tranche. If I had added a stock from the May tranche into the August tranche as well, I would treat each one separately. The one year holding period per stock/month is a key rule.

      • Thanks for the reply.

        I’ve been holding KLIC for a couple of months and have already seen a 23% rise in price. You have held for a year and selling tomorrow. I am thinking about holding rather than taking my profit and running. I believe you thought this stock had the potential to hit $18 which is another 20% so holding isn’t out of the question for me.

      • Tom – Even with my sale, KLIC is still my #3 holding, behind GTAT and GNW.

      • KLIC has been very good to you based on the above statement. Don’t know at what price you got in — multiple times — but I am sure it was at a money making price. Since I have nothing else to invest in I will hold for at least the near future or another 20%. This stock is in a 401K so holding for a year doesn’t affect my tax decision on this stock.

    • Marshall when you buy these do you have ones even among the final five that you rate better or like more than other ones?

      • Ojunker – not really. These tranche buys are generally about the portfolio. These stocks are often a bit out of favor, so by going with a basket, you have eyes wide open that one or two may under perform, but hard to distinguish which ones at the start.

  3. Update on OIH. my position was not called out last friday. Yesterday had set a limit sell order early morning on weekly 52.50 call that was executed at .20. I wish I was able to watch it yesterday as it moved up and I could have gotten .30 or more. Either way this play is looking to still be good for about 1% or more every week with the occasional time period going to 2 or more weeks. I’m going to expand my exposure to this trade as it still seems to be a very good option in this market. If anyone else is going to dabble please share. Always exciting to see how others are doing and making $$$

    • Thanks for the update. If you are willing to take more risk you might want to look at the same strategy with TNA/TZA. Premiums on the weekly options are good. I am looking to sell some weekly options in addition to day/swing trades. I’m going to stay away from individual stocks for now.

      • I’ve traded them before, but I never felt comfortable with them. I’ll dabble with them when then market is very volatile to grab a few bucks here and there, but that’s it.

  4. Out of TZA from yesterday for plus .35 2.0%. Pressed my luck earlier this morning and decided not to do that again.

  5. Ed, Marshall and the group thoughts on ONNN? Seems like it is undervalued at this price.

    • ojunker,
      I’d agree with Marshall, but that is dependent on the semiconducter industry. But at least based on analyst’s projections for growth, ONNN looks cheap. Add in the fact they have beaten analysts’ earnings estimates the past 3 quarters, and their revenue is going up, they are certainly worth a second look.

  6. Oj – My quick look at ONNN was favorable. They do look cheap. Funny, I have never heard of them. Have they changed names or ticker symbols? Speaking of “funny” I saw where NVDA announced today because of an inadvertent email. They were scheduled to report on Thursday. I think if that happened where I work, heads would roll.

  7. Right now I am at my highest absolute cash level ever. I have been selling a lot since April 30th: 30% of my GTAT, 50% of my LMNS, some of my FGL, my speculative part of KLAC, my speculative GNW component, my speculative WB buy and the GSOL buy. In that stretch, I have bought very little. A small stake back in HIMX and then the five stocks I mentioned today, which is really just a changing of the guard, not new cash. With all the bubble talk on TV, right now I am happy to have some assets out of the market.

    I have mentioned here before that I have two “signals” I look to for wanting to be out of the market. One is the decision moose, and he moved out of stocks on April 14th and into longer duration treasuries. The other is the 50 and 200 day EMAs for IWM, SPY and IWV. While SPY and IWV are still in decent shape, the IWM 50 day EMA is only 0.8% above the 200 day. So while I am not saying things will crash and burn, I am saying that for me a slightly more defensive posture is appropriate.

  8. Marshall what is your cash position at right now?

  9. Small cap technicals continue to be weak. The big change today was in the S&P. There was a very strong technical move to the downside. The Stochastic RSI dropped from 1.00 to 0 in one day. I don’t ever remember seeing this before. I’m going to take this as a bad sign for the longs. It did bounce back to .36 on some strange move in the last minute. I have no idea what that is all about. I put on a partial position in TZA at the close at 18.00.

    • Trader,

      I still do not see much conviction on up days. I think best case scenario for the market is if it can keep going sideways and consolidate. Otherwise maybe another 10% pullback is in store.

  10. ATVI just reported solid earnings and are up 5% after hours. ATVI is a pretty large position for me. This is a busy week for me in earnings, WNR and NVDA were very respectable this morning. Tomorrow I have AVG, CF and GTAT. Then the next day is FGL and BBEP. The following week includes CSCO, CA and LMNS.

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