Traders Corner   32 comments

Pre-market movers

UP: VZ
DOWN: MSFT

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Neutral
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures (June): Leaning Negative
Overall: In May, the S&P 500 hasn’t had 3 days in a row of any kind of movement, up or down. After 2 straight days of upward movement, we will see if that trend breaks today. The futures are pointing to a negative opening, but there isn’t much technically to say where the markets will go from there, since most of the technicals are either neutral or getting close to it.

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1888-1889 (3 data points), 1891 (May 2nd’s high), 1896-1897 (3 data points and April’s high and the top of the Bollinger Bands), and 1902 (May 13th’s high and the all-time high).
LAST CLOSE: 1885, inside the 1885-1886 (3 data points) range.
DOWNSIDE: 1883 (May 6th’s high and March’s high), 1880 (May 12th’s low), 1879 (20 day moving average), 1878 (5 data points), 1872 (May 19th’s low), 1870 (May 8th’s low), 1868 (50 day moving average), 1865-1867 (3 data points and February’s high), 1862 (May 15th’s low and the bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1859 (May 7th’s low), and 1847 (100 day moving average).

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32 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. Ed any thoughts on BCOR at these levels?

    • Bobb,
      BCOR is quite tempting, although analysts are calling for an earnings drop this quarter, which is probably why the stock seems stalled on the low end of the 52 week range. I’m going to add it to my watchlist and look for a better price in June or July. That said, even buying it now is more than reasonable for a long-term hold. BCOR should double in 5 years, possibly sooner.

    • I also find BCOR very tempting. Only strike against them is their balance sheet, where most of their assets are intangible. But given that everything else looks good, I would consider the stock. I will also put on watch list for my August 2014 tranche.

    • When looking at a stock like this does waiting to buy because market may go down really effect it that much? I mean I know stocks can go to zero but is all the bad news already priced into this stock? Also there seems to be a shareholder suit against them, but this normally seems like lawyers trying to make a buck.
      One thing that is also interesting with the company is that they have it looks like $643 mm in NOL’s to offset taxes.

      • Bobb,
        In the age of etf’s, macro moves matter. When etf’s sell off, then the company managing the etf has to sell off the underlying holdings. In passively managed funds, that means selling off a percentage of all holdings. If your stock happens to be one of them, it will get sold regardless of the value.

      • bobb, how do you know all of the bad news is priced into the stock? I’m not saying it will go down, but it traded at 10 a couple of years ago and as high as 30 in the last 12 months. This is a very different market which I am sure has frustrated a lot of people. Over the last few years you could buy a good company and sit and watch the stock price rise. Those days are gone at least for now. It is still possible to make money if you are willing to be creative and use the tools that are available. Small caps and Nasdaq have been taking a beating while S&P has been flat. Something has to give. If we get a substantial correction there won’t be very many stocks that are immune. The low risk stocks just won’t fall as much. There is no way to know how much BCOR could fall in a correction. Doesn’t seem like there is much upside in this stock at the moment.

      • Bobb – that is a very fundamental question. A value investor would say to look at the stock and determine the fair value (or range) of that stock. If the price of that stock is materially below the fair value ( thus providing a margin of safety), you would buy, irregardless of external views of broader market.

      • Bobb,
        I would add a hypothetical to what Trader and Marshall said: What if the “market” decides the stock will not grow in the next 5 years, and might even lose money, and the “market” decides to price it at book value? Then BCOR will drop to $13.41, almost a 29% drop from the current price.

      • Thanks for all the different ways everyone looks at the same stock. I guess its how you play the market in a sense.

  2. FEYE @ 29.52. Looking a weekly covered calls.

  3. Does anyone worry about the fall in the $ vs. the English Pound? The Pound has just kick the heck out of the $ in the last six months.

  4. Bought more FEYE @ 30.31. Sold Friday 31 calls for 1.20. If called profit 1.89 6.5% If not, 4.0% on my purchase price.

    • Trader – why are you picking feye? Obviously a good move today, but this strikes me as a stock that could be $35 one week and $25 the next.

      • Marshall, several reasons. It appears to be making a bottom. Technical indicators are gaining strength on the daily chart. If you look at the opening price to its high for the day it has plenty of intraday volatility to trade. Option premiums are high. It seems to fit the bill for daytrading and weekly options. Having said that, along with volatility comes increased risk. As a trader, I understand that risk. Just have to make sure that there is enough upside to warrant the risk I am taking.

    • Careful. Tomorrow is an enormous lockup expiration, where nearly 70% of the company’s shares will be available for sale.

  5. Sold my trading position in GTAT for a small profit .11 .8%. GTAT has lost its volatility and doesn’t fit my trading model. Still holding my core position. Will probably sell longer term calls.

  6. Busy day. I continue move towards cash. I sold the rest of my LMNS, now I plan never to look at them again! All in I took a 22% haircut and on a dollar basis was my second worst trade ever. Then I sold the Kerx I bought last week for a quick 5% gain. I will continue to watch them and may buy again on pullback.

  7. We hit the 50 day MA. If we finish below that, this could get ugly, although the 100 day MA isn’t too much farther down (1847).

  8. Marshall, what is your long term sale price on GTAT?

  9. Sold gtat June $15 calls for $.55. Will be +$1.86 if called for 13.5%. Also closed Jan $5 aci and June $19 btu calls for $.35 but I don’t have my entry prices available for the profit. I had entered the close prices a while ago.

  10. I sold uco +.56 I wanted more but work was getting in the way and the hourly chart never turned back up. Supply data tomorrow. The trend could continue up. I’ll look into sco next week long weekend for me.
    Trader, Good luck with your new FEYE 🙂 Some of you stuff I know better than to play with.

    • I’m guessing to do what trader does quite successfully, you need to be pretty attached to your computer.

      • He is good at what he does that is for sure. I just don’t have that kind of time nor the level of understand of the market he does.

  11. Was to busy today to update but sold OIH weekly 52C for .15 today. Also sold GTAT june18C for .10. Thinking after today I should have sold more calls for July on GTAT but i’ll see what tomorrow brings. Nice job w_seattle with taking the price right now. I think this will be a tough march back up into the 16-17 dollar area, but you never know what the market will bring.

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