Traders Corner   6 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1941 (June 5th’s high and the all-time high and the top of the Bollinger Bands).
DOWNSIDE: 1928 (June 4th’s high), 1924-1925 (2 data points and May’s high), 1922 (June 5th’s low), 1918 (2 data points), 1915 (June 2nd’s low), 1900 (20 day moving average), 1897 (April’s high), 1883 (March’s high), 1879 (50 day moving average), 1867 (February’s high), 1859 (May’s low and the bottom of the Bollinger Bands), and 1856 (100 day moving average).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Overbought
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures (June): Positive
Overall: Yesterday’s surge pushed the S&P 500’s daily technicals into overbought. If we aren’t at the end of the bull run, we are getting close.

6 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. “Yesterday’s surge pushed the S&P 500′s daily technicals into overbought. If we aren’t at the end of the bull run, we are getting close.”

    I’ve been reading this type of statement in multiple places for about a year. Is it any more real today than in 2013?

  2. You can’t call the end of a bull run based on daily technicals. Weekly are a long way from overbought. We may see a pull back but I would be very surprised to see a correction greater than the 3 to 5% we have seen over the last year. The trend this year has been flat to slightly higher. I’ll stick with that until I see something different.

  3. Trader,
    The weekly overbought/oversold technicals are almost overbought: Williams %R is already overbought, and RSI is just a smidgen from it. What weekly technicals are you looking at?

    As for daily technicals, when they hit overbought, that doesn’t mean the end of the bull run, but it does mean it’s getting close.

    The end of the bull run can mean a correction, or it can mean an extended period (a few days? a week or more?) of sideways trading. We saw plenty of sideways trading in 2013 whenever the technicals got overbought. Keep in mind, I’m not referring to the secular bull market we are in, but rather the recent run-up since about mid-May.

    • The same ones I always use. MACD, Stochastic RSI, Keltner Channels and Detrending Price Oscillator. I know you have been waiting for some form of correction before you go long again. What in your mind constitutes the big one? If you are referring to a 3 to 5 % pull back as the end of a bull run, I would agree that is possible in the near future.

      • Trader,
        I should clarify: By “bull run”, I don’t mean a “bull market” which can last for months or years. The bull run we are in has been since the middle of May. A bull run can end with a simple sideways move, not necessarily a correction. While I do expect a correction at some point this summer, that’s not what I’m referring to by the end of this bull run.

      • Should also mention, I pay very close attention to the daily price action. If I could only use one thing, that would be it. Thanks for the clarification.

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