Traders Corner (6/24/2014)   23 comments

I am skipping the daily notes today, because there just isn’t anything there except for politics.

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1963 (2 data points and the all-time high), and 1970 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1962.
DOWNSIDE: 1957-1959 (4 data points), 1955 (June 9th’s high), 1949-1950 (3 data points), 1947 (June 9th’s low), 1939-1944 (8 data points), 1938 (20 day moving average), 1937 (June 13th’s high), 1933 (June 17th’s low), 1924-1928 (5 data points and May’s high), 1922 (June 5th’s low), 1918 (2 data points), 1915 (June 2nd’s low), 1906 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1900 (50 day moving average), 1897 (April’s high), 1883 (March’s high), and 1871 (100 day moving average).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Overbought
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Overbought
S&P 500 Futures: Slightly negative
Overall: Yesterday’s action was so small as to have almost no impact on the S&P 500’s technicals. Unless we get some kind of significant news, I expect another flat day, with heightened potential for some profit-taking.

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23 responses to “Traders Corner (6/24/2014)

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  1. Picking up on yesterday discussion of TC I think that they could be in for a nice earnings surprise this quarter.
    Their Mt Milligan project seems to be in schedule which is good but the surprise will come from the old line Moly business.
    TC projected at beginning of year that moly prices would be in the range of $10-11….this quater I think has been $14-15 range. They produce 7.5 million a quarter times that by $4 is $ 30 million to bottom line.

    • For some reason I thought they shuttered their moly production. Is that incorrect?

      • There older Thompson Creek mine they were talking of putting on care and maintenance at end of year because of what they thought would be low moly cost. They still could do that but some think that if prices stay at these levels they will start new phase of mining. They also have Endarko mine that is producing moly.

  2. Wondering opinions on TRN?

  3. On Motley Fool….could explain why even though Moly prices have gone up 50% TC had not moved much recently.

    Now in English, this simply means that Thompson Creek is looking for ways to reduce its debt load, and it offered tMEDS note holders the opportunity to convert their tMEDS into common shares. It would appear that traders had been trying to keep Thompson Creek’s price low to minimize tMEDS conversion, since conversion would equal dilution. With an average price over the past week of $2.73, it’s unlikely there will be many takers, which means little in the way of dilution for existing share and call holders like myself. With the company’s Mt. Milligan copper and gold mine remaining on track and molybdenum prices up 50% over the past couple of months, I’m more positive than ever on Thompson Creek’s future, but keep my ownership bias in mind as you read that last statement.

  4. S&P daily technicals are weak. Not showing up on weekly yet. As I mentioned last week I expected to see some downward movement the first of this week. I’ll stick with that. Cautious for now.

  5. Silver looks strong. I would look to buy on pullbacks if they are shallow.

  6. If anyone is considering FEYE it has reached a minor resistance level. If it breaks through it could move towards the upper 40’s assuming we don’t get a large pullback in the market.

  7. I’m seeing signs that we maybe starting a period of distribution. S&P technical indictors are weak. Momentum and strength indicators are also turning lower. We’ll have to wait and see how this is resolved but it looks like we are close to a pullback. If we do, it may not be big or sudden. Slow meltdowns are possible. Keep in mind, I am still looking for a crystal ball that actually works. I have quite a collection that have turned out to be great paper weights and nothing more.

    • Trader – your call on RIOM was pretty good yesterday. It is down 6% today and I am glad I locked in some profits. Thanks,
      M

      • It looked way overbought. They can’t go straight up forever. Glad it worked out.

      • Should add, I think we are in the early stages of inflation. I would keep a close eye on the metals. If pullbacks are weak, I would buy again.

      • Can’t believe I’m asking this since I have a vow of “no more miiners” but, is it time to buy RIOM? I’m thinking I should wait for another 5% drop? What do you guys think?

      • Jeff, TC looks stronger. I would wait on RIOM.

  8. VJET has sure been on a tear. Any ideas why?

    • Don’t know. Looks like the whole sector is moving up. Also, pullback this morning in TC is weak. I’m going to add a partial position at the end of the day if it holds or sooner if it starts to move up.

  9. Marshall I have brought up a few names like GE and WSTC in the past. I am looking for a good stock that pays nice dividend and has some growth for a longer term position. Do either of these names fit that in your opinion?

  10. Bobb – I would go for a GE before wstc. But I hate to go with a single name. Some names in my dividend portfolio include BBEP, NADL, GPS, PM, TIME, FSC and TPVG. I also think INTC and CSCO are decent long term plays. Finally, I am a fan of insurers MET, CB, ACE and LNC and have them in my kids college funds.

    • Marshall not sure I agree on INTC and CSCO.

      I’d stay away from CSCO. Software networking in the cloud will kill their server business. Their growth potential may be limited.May be an industry ripe for transformation and CSCO is not all that nimble.Think Coal industry?

      I’m also a little skeptical of INTC. They do not seem to be getting a lot of penetration in Mobile and a bump in the PC market does not convince me that’s where I should put my long term money?

    • I do like GE a lot. I see increased focus on their core competencies and away from finance? Except for the fact they will need to deal with the silly French, the Alston acquistion looks like a clear winner for them

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