Traders Corner   15 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1955 (June 9th’s high), 1957-1959 (4 data points), 1963 (2 data points), 1968 (June 24th’s high and the all-time high), and 1970 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1949, inside the 1947-1950 (5 data points) range.
DOWNSIDE: 1939-1944 (8 data points and the 20 day moving average), 1937 (June 13th’s high), 1933 (June 17th’s low), 1924-1928 (5 data points and May’s high), 1922 (June 5th’s low), 1918 (2 data points), 1915 (June 2nd’s low), 1910 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1902 (50 day moving average), 1897 (April’s high), 1883 (March’s high), and 1873 (100 day moving average).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bearish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Flat
Overall: The S&P 500 looked like “the bulls last charge” yesterday. It set a new all-time high, then collapsed by 20 points. Even if you are still bullish, you have to look at yesterday’s drop as necessary to relieve the S&P 500’s overbought conditions. Futures aren’t pointing anywhere today. If we drop, watch the 20 day moving average (1940) for support. If the 20 day doesn’t hold, I would say we are looking at a more serious correction, possibly down to the 50 day moving average (1902) or even lower. I will say the 20 day MA hasn’t proven much support lately, so the 50 day MA seems a bit more likely as a target.

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15 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. Everyone agrees I think that most analyst are not good or downright maniplative. Case in point I think is this guy following Dreamworks. Dwa had been hit hard this past week because their movie How to Train your Dragon while doing good at box office did not crush.
    It had by most people projected to do around $550 million worldwide by time it was over but because of great reviews some thought it would be hit of summer and leading up to it whisper number became $800+ at box office.
    Well will be more like the $ 550 million it looks like originally forecasted. From what I know a movie turns profit around twice the production cost, so with this movie it cost $145 million so at $ 290 it is profitable.
    Here is analyst report from yesterday:

    The film, released on June 13, is likely to generate $180 million in U.S. and Canadian ticket sales, Doug Creutz , an analyst at Cowen & Co., said in a report today. He previously projected $250 million.

    “How to Train Your Dragon 2” won’t reach profitability in theaters, Creutz estimated. A sequel to the 2010 original, the film will eventually generate profit of $171.1 million for Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Katzenberg’s studio, including DVD sales, movie rentals and TV rights. That means investors will have to wait until 2016 for significant profit from DreamWorks Animation, Creutz said.

    He says it won’t reach profit at the Theatrrs only later from DVD rentals ect…
    This guy is either stupid or purposely trying to drive price down because it should easily do $ 200+ million in profit at box office alone before DVD ect…

    It reminds me of the analyst who predicted TC was going to .50 cents

  2. Was promotion included in that 140 mill cost? I think that is always extra and is significant.

  3. Trader, did you ghost write this piece?

    June 23, 2014, 12:50 p.m. EDT
    Get more income using this creative strategy

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-more-income-using-covered-calls-on-dividend-stocks-2014-06-23

  4. bought some FEYE for 38.24. 1/2 position

    Looking to sell some July calls for around 1.40 to 1.60

    • Sold July 19 40 calls for 1.40. If called I make about 7% if not I drop basis from 38.24 to 36.84.

      Sweet! I may double my position but will probably wait till tomorrow.

      • Jeff, for a high volatility stock FEYE has been pretty stable. This strategy will work well as long as we don’t get a big drop. Not too long ago this was an $80 stock. A 50% haircut reduces the risk of another big drop.

      • Been following your lead on this trader and I did notice the big haircut. Very nice premiums as well.

        Marshall and the gang, how would you rate this stock as a longer term hold? I’m still doing a little research.

      • Jeff – I do not like FEYE.

      • good to know, should have went for the 38 or 39 calls for short term gains

      • Jeff,
        I have to second what Marshall said. It’s bleeding cash, and the analysts don’t see it becoming profitable in the next 5 years. Cybersecurity is a competitive industry. Best case for FEYE: takeover target.

      • thanks for pointing out the cash problem ed

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