Traders Corner   45 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1963 (2 data points), 1968 (June 24th’s high and the all-time high), and 1971 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1960, inside the 1957-1961 (7 data points) range.
DOWNSIDE: 1955 (June 9th’s high), 1947-1950 (5 data points), 1946 (20 day moving average), 1939-1944 (9 data points), 1937 (June 13th’s high), 1933 (June 17th’s low), 1924-1928 (5 data points and May’s high), 1922 (June 5th’s low), 1921 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1918 (2 data points), 1915 (June 2nd’s low), 1909 (50 day moving average), 1897 (April’s high), 1883 (March’s high), and 1879 (100 day moving average).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bearish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Flat (leaning negative)
Overall: With momentum technicals going both ways, that only leaves overbought/oversold technicals to shine any light on this market. On top of the technicals I usually follow, the McClellan Summation Index (the long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator) quietly slipped into overbought territory on Friday. However, Dave Fry’s headline from Friday tells the market story right now: “Window Dressing Season At Hand”. Today is the end of the month and quarter, so the professionals have to pretty up their portfolios. With light volume on the markets, it doesn’t take much buying to make your holdings look better. I would expect a pullback, but not today.


45 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. I’m looking to tune up my 401K. It’s with Fidelity and I have some employer matching. I’ve opened a Brokerage link with the intent of moving some of my assets out of mutual funds into broad market index ETFs. When I looked at my largest holding, it was with FSKAX, which is Fidelity Spartan Ttl Mkt Idx Advtg Instl. This has an expense ratio of .04%. I was comparing it to SCHB, which also has an expense ratio of .04%.Any reason to make this move?

    • Ok, looks like FSKAX has an expense ratio of .06%. It was .04% last year. My other funds in my 401K have much higher fees and look like ideal candidates to move to low expense index funds. They are: FLPKX (.68%), DODFX (.64%), FKEMX (.67%), FPUKX (.47%), and PTTRX (.46%).

      • Meant to say, move to low expense index ETFs. There appears to be a decent list of iShares ETFs that I can trade for free on Fidelity.

      • John,
        You won’t get much better than a 0.06% expense ratio in any etf’s. If you are happy with the fund and it’s strategy, you may as well keep it.

  2. Bought back 1/3 of my July GTAT 17 calls for 1.55. I think we’re heading down for a little longer but I wanted at least some unhedged upside potential.

  3. GPRO @ 39.29. May hold for a bit. I’m going to try and ride the momentum as long as it continues. This is Vegas money.

  4. Have people noticed that GWPH has gone over $100? It has doubled in about three months. I know Ed and others held for awhile, did anyone get the double?

  5. bought scty for 70.87. sold Aug 72.50 calls for 6.10. If I get called out I make 11%. If not my basis drops to 64.77.

  6. I did buy a 1/2 position in idti at 15.32 this morning. This is purely a speculative play (like TLM, which hasn’t done much) based on unusual options activity on Friday.

  7. I was called out on two FEYE positions. Here’s the final line. 6-16 @ 38.24. Sold calls for a total of 4.46, reducing my basis to 33.78. Called out at 34. Profit .22 .7% This was a conservative play in case the stock dropped. Low risk/small profit. 6-23 @ 38.45. Sold calls for 1.20 reducing my basis to 37.25. Called out at 38.50. Profit 1.20 3.4%. Weekly premiums have dropped indicating the market is not expecting volatility. I may need to go out a couple of weeks to collect a higher premium.

    • Trader take a look at SCTY. Too my uneducated eye, looks like some nice premiums if you’re willing to go out a month?

      • Thanks Jeff. I’m leaning towards adding to TSL. July premiums are very good and good volume in July 13’s. It also looks like it is setting up to break out. Nothing wrong with SCTY. TSL may have more upside here.

      • Trader – I have been looking and I may like CSIQ more than TSL. Not sure about options though.

      • TSL looks pretty sweet as well

      • Marshall are CSIQ’s panels subject to the new US import tariff’s? I’ve already got one Chinese solar panel manufacturer and that’s enough

      • Marshall, CSIQ chart looks good. Option premiums are also nice. Picture looks positive for this sector.

      • Jeff – I have not seen anything about tariffs for CSIQ. As it is a Canadian company, I think they probably cannot have a tariff based on nafta.

      • Thought all their production facilities were in China? I’m going to do a little more research. If not subject to tariffs, Im in

      • The tariffs are on panels made in china. Accordingly, CSIQ’s panels made in China would be subject to us duties.

        Nonetheless, I bought CSIQ at 31.20 and promptly sold Aug 16, 32 calls for 2.50. If called I have a profit of 10% otherwise my basis goes down to 28.70

  8. More GPRO @ 38.84

  9. AM I reading this right?? Someone bought/sold 2.7 million NGLS July 19 70 calls at 1.58 and 2.50?

    What does this mean?

    • Jeff, where did you see this? I only show 3 July 70 options.

    • I’m seeing it on my fidelity active trader pro screen.July 19, 70 calls

      • My real time screen still shows 3. Don’t know what to tell you. My guess is there is something wrong with their screen. I checked two places and got the same. If someone did buy that many it would really catch the attention of the big traders who monitor volume. Haven’t seen anything of confirm that volume.

      • Agreed, 2.7 million??? definitely a problem at Fidelity.

  10. Mark Gomes made nice call on GLUU, patience is paying off

  11. I spent some time this morning reviewing half a dozen indicators I follow on the S&P. Doesn’t look like we are anywhere close to being overbought. There is a lot of talk about the market top. I don’t see it based on technical and momentum indicators. Not suggesting that it is time to go all in. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be afraid to go in on quality stocks or momentum plays for you traders.

  12. GTAT @ 18.69. Sold July 19 calls for .78.

  13. Sorry I did not have time to update earlier today. Bought OIH at 57.39, and sold 57.7C at .25. Only trading half position this week due to the holiday shortened week. OIH continues to look strong, and I might have left a little on the table today, but I just need to keep the bunts coming on this one. Also initiated a call spread in SLV today. Bought Aug 21’s(.24) and sold the 22’s(.11) for a net cost of .13. If SLV is at 22 by expiration the trade could potentially see a return of over 700%. It’s more likely that I’ll exit the trade on a strong move around 21 so the actual return will be much lower.

  14. Sold half of GPRO into the close for plus 1.44 3.7%

    • very nice trader. also think its smart to close your position before close, since I still think Go Pro is in for some hurt

      • Thanks, I’m sure you are right. The question is from what level. Still has momentum. I plan to keep a short leash on it. Momentum plays can go down just as fast as they go up. FEYE is a good example. Former momentum stocks can also be good trading vehicles when it looks like they have bottomed. FEYE is a good example again.

    • Of course I’m the same guy who said no one would ever pay $3 for a cup of coffee at starbucks

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