Traders Corner   16 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1984 (July 7th’s high), 1985 (July 3rd’s high and the all-time high), and 1986 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1977, inside the 1972-1979 (8 data points) range.
DOWNSIDE: 1968-1969 (2 data points and June’s high), 1965 (July 9th’s low), 1963 (20 day moving average), 1962 (July 1st’s low), 1959 (2 data points), 1952 (July 10th’s low), 1940 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1928 (50 day moving average), 1924 (May’s high), 1915 (June’s low), 1897 (April’s high), and 1895 (100 day moving average).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bearish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bullish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Negative
Overall: It is hard to know what to expect on a day when Janet Yellen appears before the Senate. Considering my normal daytrading time is between 10-11 am EST, and her testimony starts at 10, this could be a great or awful day for me to daytrade. Yesterday’s move was bullish, which tells me what the professional traders are expecting from Yellen, although this could be one of the market’s “sell the news” days. With the weekly bullish momentum starting to fade, the longer trend looks pretty established.

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16 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. Reynolds to buy Lorillard. Reynolds will pay a mixture of cash and stock valuing each Lorillard share at $68.88. Why would the stock drop over 6% this AM to $62 and change?

  2. RAI is down, so the stock component of deal is worth less. Then a 3 to 5% difference is not uncommon as always risk deal falls apart.

  3. Question for group. I have held PM as one of my core holding stocks since it was $50, have had nice return including dividends.
    But they have underperformed the last few years. Part of the past success was the company buying shares back but it looks like they will be scaling back due to their debt levels being high.

    My question is would you sell PM which has performed well for me or ride out this stretch figuring currency will swing their way and some new products for them like rollout of an e-cigs?

    I am thinking of replacing with GE

    • Ojunker,
      I’m a strong believer in the cigarette sector as a long-term play, both for e-cigs and eventually marijuana (that’s a few years from now though). While I’m partial to RAI, PM is a keeper too. You may go through a small slump in the next year, but I’d hold it long-term. If you’re selling PM to go to cash, I can appreciate that move, but not to put the money in another sector.

  4. I sold my PM last month. They signaled that revenues are declining and my opinion is that trend will continue.

  5. Markets don’t seem to be impressed with the Fed this morning. No clear direction. Small caps continue to show weakness. I would continue to be cautious. TZA and UVXY are making a strong move. Have to see if that continues.

  6. I know I mentioned GLUU yesterday and some wondered if I had a price exit in mind. RIght now it would be $10 which has been confirmed by Mark Gomes in this article. I actually think they in the long run will go much higher based on their platforms and strategy though.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2315565-glu-mobiles-q3-revenue-could-double-the-consensus-view

    • Good stuff. I am glad I have some.

      • Yes I wish I had more, only built a speculative position in stock at average price of $4.00 Now I wish I would have bought lots more since up 64% at this point. But still nice to have a little juice to the returns

  7. Looks like we set up for a down day tomorrow. Holding TZA and UVXY.

  8. I’m adding GLUU to my watch list. Looks overbought at the moment. I’ll wait for a pullback or buy here with the thought of selling options and trading around the position if it drops. Option premiums are high.

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