Traders Corner   35 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1982-1984 (3 data points), and 1985 (July 3rd’s high and the all-time high and the top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1981.
DOWNSIDE: 1972-1979 (9 data points), 1968-1969 (2 data points and June’s high), 1967 (20 day moving average), 1965 (2 data points), 1962 (July 1st’s low), 1959 (2 data points), 1952 (July 10th’s low), 1948 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1932 (50 day moving average), 1924 (May’s high), 1915 (June’s low), and 1898 (100 day moving average).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bearish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bullish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Negative
Overall: The S&P 500 futures are looking painfully lower for today’s opening. Considering the September futures are pointing to a 1963 price, and the 20 day moving average is at 1967, and the Bollinger Bands have continued to contract, I would speculate the next major move is down. One other thing to remember: Options expiration is tomorrow. Lock up your valuables.

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35 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. My stocks continue to struggle a bit here in July. GTAT and GNW have been pressured (down 20% and 6%). In early trading SNDK is down 8% this morning. Last week I had sold quite a few positions (TLM, Idti, and DAL), so I am in a very strong cash position. I still have conviction in my holdings, but the month has not been much fun (down about 4% in aggregate).

  2. Marshall, thanks for the update. Very confusing markets. No clear direction. My thoughts are continue to be cautious, smaller positions if you buy, take profits, don’t get greedy, and look at using covered calls.

  3. GLUU @ 6.41 Partial position

  4. PM up even though forecast is weak?

  5. Marshall, you’ve mentioned several times that you believe GTAT will be a 25.00 stock in a year. If you haven’t changed your mind, what will it take to get there? That is a huge increase from here.

    • Trader – I view current issues with GTAT as temporary. When a company makes a significant change to business model it can take multiple quarters to get everything streamlined. I still believe that will happen in 2015 and with it will be a sharp uptick in revenues. That will drive price.

  6. Oil. I am looking for oil stock recommendation.

    Currently I own:

    BBEP bought 7/9/13; 0.2 position up 38% (a Marshall recommendation)

    COP bought 8/11/11; 0.9 position up 78%

    ETP bought 5&10&11/12; 2.2 position up 34%

    SDRL bought 2 & 4/14; 0.8 position up 12%

    Bought all due to dividend which are 8 to 11% based on my buy price.

    Also own UPL which is natural gas not oil and is down 25% and pays no dividend. (Sold a small position a couple of months ago at a small profit.)

    I am looking at OXY, MRO, and maybe APC. Have owned all these at least once. But none have significant dividends expect OXY and its dividend is only 2.2%. Also, like EPG and PXD of which I have made good money off both int the last eight years.

    Marshall, do you still own BBEP and is this a stock to add to?

    In no hurry to buy & currently am sitting on 9% cash.

    • You have done well with what you own. Have you considered adding to those?

      • I like both BBEP and COP but COP’s dividend return is only 3.37% at today’s buy price then again its on everyone’s buy list. SDRL even at today’s buy still has a good dividend of 10+%. There is some risk with SDRL but I have been thinking of adding to this holding.

      • I would second what Traders said.

    • Latetom, I am looking at MAT for a good price to jump into for the Divi (when it hits 4%)…… Toys out of favor but Grandma always seem to get the kids toys. Their parents buy Electronic stuff, so I see a slow steady Dividend (maybe)

    • Tom – I have not been adding to my BBEP. My thesis remains that oil prices will drop as more supply and alternatives come online.

    • I have been in DPM which has performed well for me and had a nice dividend. Have been in MRO which has had a nice run of late but may sell to go into ESV.

      • Thanks ojunker. I will pass on DPM — already have two limited partnerships and earlier today put a limit buy order in for additional shares of BBEP. Will also pass on ESV since I already own SDRL and have also put a limit buy order for additional shares. MRO on the other hand I may go with. Its a pure oil play and is all U.S. (for the most part). Am going to watch the market in general and MRO specifically and will buy a half position on a dip.

  7. Sold GLUU for plus .4 .6% Being extra cautious. Bought UVXY @ 24.66

  8. bought back my 72.50 scty calls. sold for 6.10, bought back at 2.05. 66% gain

    However, now my basis is about 67.50 when he current price is 64.50. I’m looking to re-sell 70 calls but, I’m probably going to need an up day to do so

  9. Marshall, do you still own SNDK? Is this a buying opportunity?

    • Jeff – I do still own SNDK. My estimate of fair price is around $100. So it is a bit cheaper right now, but given macro market and stocks I think are marked down more, I would not be a buyer.

  10. Sold more UVXY for plus .82 3%

  11. Booked some profit in TZA for plus 78 5.1%

  12. Wow, market is tanking hard. Is this a start of a correction?

    • Lynn, no way to know for sure, but there have been plenty of red flags. Small caps have been very weak. Not much technical strength on up days in the S&P. We’ll have to see if this is just a reaction to the plane crash or something more. I would just reiterate my comments from this morning.

  13. Israel has troops in Gaza….lot’s of war and political clashes around world. Gas will rebound?

  14. w_seattle I’m not adding SCO yet. I’ll look at charts in the morning I may pick up UCO it looks to still have some room to run. Because we broke the 101 area on oil the trend should be to the down side. Over the next 2 weeks we’ll know for sure.

    I see IWM is down to 111.97 nearing that 107 area we hit before. Looks to me like market played catch up to small caps. Does that make a double top in S&P? Well July 8th the low was 1963 and today we broke that.

  15. sold about 50% of my small caps today. moved about 15% to cash. Total cash is about 22%. Probably selling the rest of the small caps and emerging markets to cash tomorrow, we,ll see. Not at all sure this is the correction everyone has been talking about for the last 14 months. But hey nice to be right about every 460 days.

    • Yea Jeff I’m down to 9% in small caps now and 45% cash. New money still buys small caps. I haven’t moved any large or mid cap yet.

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