Traders Corner   34 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1972-1986 (25 data points and the 20 day moving average), 1989 (July 23rd’s high), 1990 (top of the Bollinger Bands), and 1991 (July 24th’s high and the all-time high).
LAST CLOSE: 1970, inside the 1967-1970 (5 data points and June’s high) range.
DOWNSIDE: 1965 (3 data points), 1962 (2 data points), 1959-1960 (3 data points and the bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1955 (July 17th’s low), 1952 (July 10th’s low), and 1951 (50 day moving average).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bearish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Mixed (trending bearish)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral
S&P 500 Futures: Strongly negative
Overall: If the S&P 500 were to drop to where the September futures are pointing, it would fall almost 0.9%. After the 4.0% U.S. GDP and the continued Federal Reserve policy of tapering QE, the markets are waking up today to realize all the extra liquidity is going away. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see bargain hunters hopping in after an initial drop today. Remember, this is the last day of the month, so professional fund managers have to clean up their portfolios today.


34 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. I heard drop was because of Russian sanctions which will hurt multinationals. This administration found another way to punish us. Obama, Kerry and Biden make the three stooges look sharp.

  2. I added to my GNW and NADL this morning

  3. took a big loss (15%) on avg and sold it at $17.

  4. UVXY @ 29.17. Sold August 8 27 calls @ 3.35. Thinking I might get a chance to trade the options around this position. Have three positions with calls that will expire tomorrow. Have a good chance of being called on those.

    • Trader, had to work this am and missed the UVXY freight train. Thinking I should wait for a drop to around 29.60 before I buy and sell calls. Your thoughts would be appreciatted

      • Have several. If you think this is the start of a move down, you could buy a position and just hold. If you want to be conservative you could do what I did this morning. Buy and sell a short term in the money call with the thought that we could get a strong bounce back. Then trade the calls around the position. I like to have some in and some out of the money since this can move so quickly. With the high premiums there is an opportunity to make excellent profit trading the options or I’m always happy to be called out.

  5. bought back my avg calls for .05 94% gain and still own my avg shares. Marshall are these still a long term hold

    • Well done Jeff.

    • Thanks trader, I’m ignoring the giant loss on the actual shares for now

    • On AVG calls cost was .05 originally sold them for about 1.15 so gain was actually about 2300%

      Of course the options are only a fraction of the value of my shares. Nonetheless WOW!

      AVG should now feel free to reverse course and go up, please

      • Jeff – The market is going nuts on some stocks right now. I am long AVG and have no intention of selling. I feel the sell off is way over blown. Everyone has their own threshold for drops – but for me when you look at fundamentals, both AVG and GNW are very profitable companies selling at extremely cheap prices. That gives me comfort in holding through tough times.

      • thanks marshall

  6. added gluu at 5.78.

  7. GLUU is taking a beating this morning. I’m going to hold to see if it can make some sort of recovery before I start selling calls. Also have room to average down. Glad I didn’t take a big position.

  8. Tza @16.39 not a full position.

  9. wow..never thought GNW would drop this much in 2 days.

  10. Bot a starter position in SDRL @$36.14

    • w_seattle when you cashing in the SCO? Your more patient then me. Oil may have lots lower to go I plan to get back in but I’d like to see the dollar turn down. 81.81 is next move up may take us more towards October to get there.

  11. Just a thought, but if we get a decent jobs report tomorrow am we could see a pretty violent swing up as well. Not sure today is a buying opportunity but personally I’m not selling today. Take this with a grain of salt.

  12. Jeff, I think a decent job report is expected so I wouldn’t expect a jump on that. On the other hand, a bad report could send us lower. The next couple of days may tell us a lot. Follow through on this move down and we will probably see 5% or more on the downside. What concerns me is we have been conditioned to believe every dip should be bought. Is this the one that is the start of a real correction? That is why I always suggest waiting for some strength, One additional thing of concern is the 50 day ma. Blew right through it.

  13. We may start to bottom tonight. 1913 is support for ES. S&P may not break 100 day. I think small caps have lower to go.
    Ed, I hope you jumped in and bought some SPXU? I’m going for TZA because I think “hope” small caps lag and covered calls if I want to try it.

  14. Every long I own was down today. Can hardly wait for tomorrow.

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