Traders Corner   26 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1957 (50 day moving average), 1964 (August 15th’s high), 1968 (June’s high), 1991 (July’s high and the all-time high), and 2001 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1955 (August 14th’s high).
DOWNSIDE: 1951 (20 day moving average), 1947-1948 (2 data points), 1944 (August 11th’s high), 1941 (August 15th’s low), 1927-1939 (July’s low and 9 data points), 1924 (May’s high), 1921 (August 4th’s low), 1918 (100 day moving average), 1916 (August 1st’s low), 1909-1913 (3 data points), 1904 (August 7th’s low), and 1902 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral
S&P 500 Futures: Positive
Overall: Friday, the S&P 500 challenged the 50 day moving average, and failed. On the other hand, it also dipped below the 20 day moving average, but finished above it. Is that our trading range now? The S&P 500 futures show an opening above the 50 day moving average, but I will be looking for a sell-off after that. If the sell-off doesn’t materialize, we could be heading to new highs.

26 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. Ed, I think we are going over 2000.
    Gtat looks like its opening strong again.

  2. Finally was called out on 2/3rd’s of GTAT. Here’s the final line. Bought at 17.29. Sold, bought back, let expire covered calls for a total of 4.31 reducing my basis to 12.98. Called at 17.00. Profit 4.02 31.0% Still have 1/3 that I will hold for now. Called out on Plug for a profit of .36 7.0% Had options expire worthless on KNDI, PXLW, BLDP, and UVXY.

  3. Added to GTAT @ 17.93. Sold Friday 18 calls for .49.

  4. Bought PLUG @ 5.99. Sold Friday 5.50 calls @ .51. Thinking it might pull back a bit and I’ll buy back the options for less. Break even if called.

  5. As people may know, four times a year I buy five stocks and then hold them for a year. My August 15 2013 group hit their anniversary on Friday and I sold them today. The tranche had CF, KLIC, FLR, AGX and RPXC. It did very well, up in aggregate by 41.4% (really helped by AGX being up 140%). I have rolled the proceeds into five new positions: CSCO, AGX, ITRN, BRCD and CBI.

    My next tranche will be in November, it consisted of AVG, ATVI, GA, RPXC and SYNA. It is also doing very well, up 25.6% in aggregate. You can get more details at my blog.

    • Well done Marshall. Just curious. Did most of your gains come in 2013?

      • Trader – for my August tranche, it was up 30.5% in 2013 and ended up 41.4%, so about a ten point gain in 2014. For my November tranche, it was up 6.9% in 2013 and is now up over 25%.

        Regarding GTAT, I think it is playing out as I thought (so far). As we get closer and closer to September 9th, there is more and more anticipation that the iPhone six will go sapphire. I believe it is a certainy that some of the iPhone products will have sapphire, the only question is whether that is a premium tier or across the board. If it is just premium tier, that could create a pullback, which I think would be a buying opportunity as I think the only reason it may not be in 100% of iPhones out of the chute will be a supply issue! which should be short term. Everyone should do their own analysis as there is a large short position in GTAT that thinks differently.

      • CBI was in the mid to upper 80’s a few months back. Do you know why it has pulled back?

      • Trader – I did see that. I saw where there were some allegations about the way they have been accounting for deals. Everyone has to make their own judgments. At $58 I feel good about my buy.

      • Just read where Berkshire increased its holdings of CBI by 1.2M shares recently. They must not be too concerned about the reporting issue.

    • Marshall,
      The only reason to buy CSCO now is in the hope John Chambers’ successor is an improvement.

      I like AGX.

      I kind of like ITRN, but there is certainly risk there (two of it’s primary markets are Israel and Argentina).

      As far as BRCD, picking that up after George Soros dumped it? Ballsy.

      I love your CBI pick! I might be piggy-backing that one.

    • I haven’t looked at CBI as a stock, but I deal with them in the industry quite a bit here in the northwest. They are firmly entrenched here with only one real competitor. There is plenty of work for both and the barrier to entry in this market is large as it would be an enormous cost to start an operation to compete with them. Their costs are so low now that it would have to be hard to bid against them and turn a large enough profit to justify the risk. I may have to take a look at them.

  6. Marshall, any updates on GTAT? Looks like the market is betting with you. If it breaks the 20 level your 25 target should be in play.

    • Trader, why the cc @ 18? Are you thinking 18 doesn’t hold?

      Thanks for the update Marshall.

      • Good chance it will move higher. This is a short term play. If I’m called on Friday, I’ll profit .56 3.2% for the week. If not called I get a 2.7 % return on my purchase. I’m happy with 2 to 3% a week on GTAT. Still have a fair amount that is not covered. Holding that one until after Sept 9th. Hopefully, that is a home run. I will sell that position if it makes a nice move on the news.

  7. Thanks Ed for your thoughts. CSCO is a much hated stock, so I am not surprised at your opinion. I had not noticed the Soros sale (or even his purchase) of BRCD as he is not a guru I follow closely. He did do very well on it, over a 60% gain on shares he bought in q1 and q2 of 2013. Joel Greenblatt, who is one of the two or three gurus I follow most closely increased his holdings of BRCD by 80% to 6.3 million shares in 2q 2014.

  8. Looks like the S&P could move up to the 1990 level. May get small pull backs before it gets there. I don’t see a correction in the near term unless something blows up.

  9. Sold Sept 46 calls on GPRO for .70 reducing my basis to 41.98. Bought 2 positions the first part of July at an average cost of 45.18.

  10. Took a look at CBI and bought a full position for $59.50

  11. I also bought CBI at 59.02. thanks Marshall.

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