Traders Corner   42 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1991 (July’s high and the all-time high), and 2000 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1971 (August 18th’s high).
DOWNSIDE: 1968 (June’s high), 1964 (August 15th’s high), 1958 (August 18th’s low), 1957 (50 day moving average), 1955 (August 14th’s high), 1951 (20 day moving average), 1947-1948 (2 data points), 1944 (August 11th’s high), 1941 (August 15th’s low), 1927-1939 (July’s low and 9 data points), 1924 (May’s high), 1921 (August 4th’s low), 1919 (100 day moving average), 1916 (August 1st’s low), 1909-1913 (3 data points), 1904 (August 7th’s low), and 1902 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral
S&P 500 Futures: Slightly positive
Overall: Yesterday’s big pop in the S&P 500 has all the momentum indicators trending bullish, with even the weekly indicators starting to weaken from their bearish trending. However, I was surprised this morning to see the futures not looking as positive as they have been in previous days. Is this bull market running out of gas already? Or just slowing down a little?

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42 responses to “Traders Corner

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  1. I may downsize my GTAT holdings today. It is 11.5% of my portfolio and I had increased my holdings by 28% in July during the dip. I am thinking about trimming back to the original size. Doesn’t mean I am now negative on GTAT, it will still be by far my largest holding, just think it may make sense to take some profits.

    • Marshall, with the run up that gtat is on do you think someone knows something? How strong would gtat be with out apple?
      Chart looks ok on weekly and daily is at top of its range.

      I added more gtat yesterday so I’m very over weight in this stock. I will most likely downsize soon. At least I’ll have some steak

      • Bill – without AAPL, GTAT would struggle short term as it has some other significant initiatives but they are 12 months away from making money. However, the AAPL exclusive is somewhat binding to GTAT as it precludes them from doing deals with samsung etc. I do not think “anybody knows something”, GTAT has always been rumor driven and has a sizable short position, so when it pops you get a mini short squeeze.

        GTAT will clearly be doing significant volume with AAPL, the open question is how long will the ramp up take? The secondary question will be how much is the margin for GTAT?

      • Thank you I will reduce most all my gtat.

      • Marshall I found some good articles, if you have said this before my apologies. I had to do a little homework. These links are a great read. Overall I agree with you, I think the future is looking up. However they have to be in a very secretive I would assume that would add volatility.

        http://seekingalpha.com/article/2431505-will-silicon-carbide-become-gt-advanced-technologies-next-materials-business

        8/18/14
        The Guardian reports production of iPhone 6 (NASDAQ:AAPL) displays featuring sapphire cover glass are expected to “go into large-scale production this month,” courtesy of GT Advanced’s (NASDAQ:GTAT) Mesa, AZ facility.

        The paper adds both the 4.7″ and 5.5″ models will sport sapphire cover glass; reports have varied on whether both models will support it, or (due to production constraints) only the 5.5″ model.

        The WSJ has reported Apple plans to protect iWatch displays with sapphire, and is thinking of doing the same for “more expensive” iPhone 6 models, if supply isn’t an issue.

    • Sold that July purchase at 18.37, for an 11% gain in a bit more than a month.

  2. This rally looks suspect. I’m seeing some strength in the S&P daily chart. The weekly is weak and not showing support for the rally even though the price is moving higher. We may be starting to top out. Should have a better idea by the end of the week.

    • Trader – not sure if you still own TSL, I bought it on you inquiry. It is up very nicely today. It us the only stock I own right now with a covered call on it. I sold a September call with a $13 strike price for $1.45. I suspect if they have decent earnings next week, I could get called out. That would be a 17% gain.

  3. Adding more KANDI @ 19.67. Looking for a trade. Had more room to add. Basis on my other position is 16.82.

  4. What is wrong with GLUU!!!??? It has great earning and the stock is tanking everyday since.

  5. Sold my plug today at 5.91. Hi beta and it looks stalled out at 5.90 to 6.00. This was a trade for me and it wasn’t really paying off for the risk. Small 1=2% gain for a month.

  6. A lot of Sept 20 calls being traded in KNDI today. Bets are being placed that it is going higher. Hope they are right. I’m not selling calls.

    • Looks like a lot at $25 as well. I wonder what potential catalysts are out there?

      • Don’t know. It looks pretty good technically. Some resistance in the 20-22 range. Call premiums are pretty high.

    • Trader, Looking at KNDI I don’t understand the weekly stochastic. Why would the weekly be higher than daily? Also you say resistance in 20-22 range, what are you looking at? Volume what is better lower then avg?
      Your still holding GTAT right?

      • The longer term trend (weekly) is still on the upswing. There is more fluctuation in the daily movement which will create a different picture. The weekly is a better indication of the trend. That is why it is important to look at both daily and weekly charts. Ideally, I like to see the same technical direction in both charts. I’m still holding two positions in GTAT. One covered with Friday calls and one not covered.

      • I’m leaning toward Jan 16 20 call @5.4 that would reduce my cost to 12.8.

  7. Yesterday I was out birding the canyons of Southern AZ so missed Marshall’s update. The only stock he sold that I owned was KLIC. Yesterday afternoon I put a limit sale of $14.41 and this morning it executed. Sold for a 22% gain since the buy date of Jan. 13, 2014 which is a 7 month short-term hold. Marshall, thanks for bring KLIC to my attention.

    • Tom – glad it worked for you. To be clear, I did sell only about 20% of my KLIC position. I still like them, though I am unsure what it will take to have them become more shareholder friendly and start a dividend or share buyback.

  8. Marshall, I sold because I wanted to follow your lead on CSCO. Just purchased a half position in CSCO at $24.64. I like the fact that CSCO’s dividend is over 3% at my buy price so I can sit on it for a year and still be collecting money. It appears CSCO can increase their dividend without effecting their existing free cash flow. Also they continue to buy back their shares providing “some” safety of a bad fall in price. I like the idea of letting people go in a non-growth area of the company to make room for new people in potentially higher growth areas of the company. I don’t believe CSCO is a home run buy but wouldn’t be surprised that in a years time with it dividend it may end up as a solid stand-up double. Should CSCO fall below $23 I currently plan to double up on today’s buy.

    I would like to buy ITRN based on its dividend but need to investigate much more.

    Like everyone else I like CBI but having spent a career in construction I know how backlog can go up and down in significant dollar amounts by quarter and therefore construction companies are a volatility equity. Might buy a quarter position should CBI fall below $59/share.

    Back into the canyons of Southern AZ to look at wild flowers and birds is on the schedule for tomorrow so I will leave my trading to limit buy and sale orders.

  9. Nice day for TC

    • OJunker – it was waiting for me to sell yesterday.

    • TC tmeds are up 5.4% divi at the current price of 13.70 is over 12% and the stock is converted into TC shares on 5/15/15. Unless TC goes bankrupt, this is a huge steal. Volume is very low but the conversion feature kicks in regardless of TC’s price on 5/15.

      Unless TC goes BK the tmeds are a steal at this price.

      • Conversion is 5.3879 TC shares for each t-med. At TC share price 13.70, that equates to 15.79 per share or a 15% discount based on the current 13.70 price. Take 3 remaining dividends into account of .4063 per quarter for 3 remaining quarters, this represents at 26% return at current prices.

        And of course, barring bankruptcy, TC’s price should increase from here. Take a look.

      • Jeff – what is the new ticker symbol?

      • In Fidelity its TCMCF

      • Thanks Jeff. It looks like a great idea.

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