Archive for July 2010

Open Thread   8 comments

This post is for you! I would offer you a Bud, but it won’t fit through my internet connection.

Welcome to the weekend! In honor of this glorious weekend, I give to all of you a place to discuss any topic you like, investing or otherwise. Just be civil to each other is all I ask. The rest is up to you…

P.S. No, I don’t post on weekends. But I will be back with more bloggy goodness on Monday. Don’t you just hate the phrase “bloggy goodness”?

Posted July 30, 2010 by edmcgon in Open Thread

Self-flagellation: Ed’s Summary for July 30th   Leave a comment

Today’s Winners:
1. CSKI: +0.33 to $11.11 (+3.1%)
2. GLD: +1.20 to $115.49 (+1.1%)

Ties:
1. NIV: +0 to $2.24 (+0%)

Losers:
1. WDC: -0.58 to $26.39 (-2.1%)
2. AMX: -0.72 to $49.61 (-1.4%)
3. PSEC: -0.09 to $9.71 (-0.9%)
4. LYSDY: +0.05 to $6.89 (-0.7%)

OVERALL: -0.3%

I added UPRO (Proshares Ultrapro S&P 500) today. We will see if Technical Trader is right about this one. No pressure TT…

Posted July 30, 2010 by edmcgon in Portfolio, Portfolio Moves

Technical Trader’s Tip   16 comments

I love it when the commenters here give me a tip, especially when it reinforces a suspicion I already had.

Today, commenter Technical Trader (the investor formerly known as dan, not to be confused with Prince) offered this short term trading tip:

I would buy if S&P holds up above 1100 at close today. stop at 1080 target at 1140-1150. you could play with sso, upro or any stock you like
Say PC, Teva, or even MRVL. MRVL looks a bit scary. But compare to 3 months ago. its much much safer. I’m bullish on it and will play a swing trade in the next few days.

I will possibly make a move with UPRO (triple long S&P 500 ETF) by the end of the day, but you folks can take this information any way you like.

Thanks for the tip TT, and enjoy your camping trip!

Posted July 30, 2010 by edmcgon in Market Analysis

What I will kick myself for later   2 comments

When I saw the GDP come in at 0.1% below expectations, I thought, “The markets will open low, then bounce back. Perfect time to hop into a long index ETF.”

But then I looked at all the long index ETFs. All the charts were either on the bad side of a head and shoulders, or in a simple down channel. And all of them were carrying values that were near their upper resistance. In other words, they would have to nearly crash in order to make them worth buying.

Needless to say, they opened down, but no crashes. But I will kick myself if they finish up next week.

Posted July 30, 2010 by edmcgon in Market Analysis

Partial sell on Western Digital (WDC)   19 comments

In looking at the two options I posted yesterday on dealing with WDC, I thought of a third option: Sell part of my WDC holdings.

So I have put in a limit sell order at $28.49 on half of my WDC stock. That will allow me to at least see a small profit on the last purchase of WDC I made.

Posted July 30, 2010 by edmcgon in Portfolio Moves

Ed’s Summary for July 29th   7 comments

Fortunately, the sky only fell a little bit.

Today’s Winners:

1. CSKI: +0.32 to $10.78 (+3.1%)
2. LYSDY: +0.16 to $6.94 (+2.4%)
3. PSEC: +0.10 to $9.80 (+1.0%)
4. GLD: +0.50 to $114.28 (+0.4%)

Losers:

1. WDC: -0.83 to $26.97 (-3.0%)
2. NIV: -0.06 to $2.24 (-2.6%)
3. AMX: -0.46 to $50.33 (-0.9%)

OVERALL: -0.1%

It’s a good thing I had CSKI today. There is nothing like a little Chinese medicine to heal your portfolio on a bad day.

Posted July 29, 2010 by edmcgon in Portfolio

The Sky Is Falling! (or “How to cope with a Chicken Little market”)   17 comments

The markets are falling, after my portfolio is already losing money. What should I do?

First, this is why it is good to have a stash of cash on the side. It is time to look towards lowering the cost basis on my outstanding positions.

Second, I am cancelling the buy order on CBEH. There is nothing wrong with what I already own, but there is some damage control to do. This is not the time to expand my portfolio.

Third, ignore the stocks which are still in the black. At this time, only two are still above where I bought them: AMX and NIV. I am also ignoring PSEC, since I just bought it yesterday and it isn’t down much.

Fourth, ignore the stocks which are up today: GLD, CSKI, and LYSDY.

This leaves just one problem child: WDC. At this writing, it is down 7.3% from my cost basis (about $29). Unfortunately, it is trading below bottom resistance. The problem with WDC is it is a falling blade right now. When a stock falls right through good news, it is a freefall. It could stop today. It could stop tomorrow. Or next week.

This leaves me two choices: One, sell now and try to catch the bottom for a cheaper price; or two, ride it out and try to lower my cost basis later. I am going with option 2 for now.

Believe it or not, option 2 is the riskiest in the short term, since I am holding on to the falling stock. At least with option 1, I would take my losses now and not risk any more. However, if WDC turns around in an hour, I would also end up missing out on the profits by choosing option 1.

Am I being stubbornly bullish on WDC? Or is there some macroeconomic reality which I’m ignoring, which says WDC is doomed?

Feel free to chime in with your opinion on my moves, or just tell me how you folks are handling your portfolios on ugly days like today. Misery loves company.

Posted July 29, 2010 by edmcgon in Portfolio Moves, Strategy