Archive for October 2011

Ed’s Daily Summary for Halloween   2 comments

It occurred to me I forgot to post my portfolio results for last Friday: +0.49%.

Now on to today’s results:
DRR: 1.22 to $39.55 (3.18%, -1.74% overall)–bought at $40.25
SPXU: 1.00 to $14.36 (7.49%, -6.27% overall)–bought at $15.32

OVERALL: +0.52%

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Posted October 31, 2011 by edmcgon in Portfolio

Quote of the day   Leave a comment

Did you know [October] is National Dwarfism Awareness Month? Neither did we. It would be easier to remember if they made it February instead.“–James Taranto

Posted October 31, 2011 by edmcgon in Humor

Daytraders corner   58 comments

The overall market trend in the S&P 500 is still up. However, there are some dark clouds, as the world’s markets have opened this week on the downside, and U.S. index futures are down. Add to that the McClellan Index still shows overbought in the short-term view, and the VIX kept dropping Friday, and things are starting to look precarious in the equity markets.

Since today is the last day of the month, don’t expect a lot of volume. However, I would still advise against riding long daytrades too long.

Posted October 31, 2011 by edmcgon in Daytrading

Ed’s Daily Notes for Halloween   Leave a comment

This week’s “trick or treat” will come in the form of U.S. jobs reports, starting with the ADP Employment Change and Challenger Job Cuts reports on Wednesday, and culminating in the Unemployment report on Friday.

In the meantime, euro-skepticism prevails…

Next European problem: Undercapitalized banks
From Bloomberg:

Europe’s largest banks may raise just a tenth of the total capital shortfall estimated by regulators, fueling concern policy makers’ plans to bolster the region’s lenders could fail.

A tenth?! Even if that estimate is off a little, I think it is safe to say the plans to bolster the banks will fail. But then we shouldn’t be surprised the politicians underestimated the problem, since former European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet had to convince Europe’s leaders that Greece had a debt problem, and it was a big problem for them.

Sarkozy can’t win
My sympathy goes out to French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Now he is catching political heat for having turned to China for assistance with funding the European bailout. Of course, his critics fail to explain how the bailout was going to be funded…

Euro deal has 2 weeks?
According to economist Liam Halligan, the latest deal to save the euro has about 2 weeks. While I agree with his basic premise that the deal is doomed to failure, I question where he comes up with the 2 week time frame.

Posted October 31, 2011 by edmcgon in Economy, Market Analysis

Open thread   34 comments

This weekend, I decided to give you folks a special treat: The top 3 scariest movies for Halloween weekend:
1. Jaws: Any time a movie causes me to keep my head on a swivel anytime I am in the water at the beach, that movie has done it’s scary job! Of course, I know sharks mainly attack from below the surface, so you will rarely see a fin before the shark attacks. But that doesn’t help.

Aside from the fear factor, Jaws was just a great movie. Directed by Steven Spielberg, and starring Roy Scheider, Richard Dreyfuss, and Robert Shaw, the people involved were all top-notch, and the quality shows on-screen.

2. Alien: Imagine being trapped on a space ship, light years away from any help, with the biggest, ugliest, most dangerous bug-like alien monster, who just happens to have acid for blood. Alien, directed by Ridley Scott and starring Sigourney Weaver, takes the classic slasher flick plotline and puts it in space. If you really want a great double feature, follow this movie with Aliens, the sequel, which has a lot more action, and a lot more bugs.

3. Nosferatu: A silent film from 1922, Nosferatu is a film that any description does not do justice to the fear factor involved. Max Schreck, who plays the title vampire, is JUST scary. If you don’t believe me, watch it yourself. Following is the movie in it’s entirety:

Posted October 28, 2011 by edmcgon in Open Thread

Daytraders corner   42 comments

U.S. Stock futures are slightly down at the moment, but I wouldn’t read too much into that. The more significant factor is how the world markets, especially in Europe, opened positive but are now turning negative. On top of that, the U.S. indexes are all at the top of their Bollinger Band range (although the Nasdaq does have a little room to go up), which means they will need a significant push to go much higher. Anybody out there want to put on some large long positions going into the weekend?

Two other things to look at today: First, the daily McClellan Oscillator, which shows a VERY overbought short-term condition on the NYSE:

Second, the VIX (Volatility Index) has moved out of the “fear” area:

Keep in mind that the lower the VIX is, the fewer short positions there are out there. This is significant when considering that short positions put a safety net on any market drops, literally providing “crash insurance”. I am NOT saying there will be a market crash today, but the odds of it are greater as the VIX drops. What I am saying is be very careful buying what looks like an oversold condition today, because there is a higher risk of that just being the beginning of a larger market drop. For daytrading, you are better off looking for the short-term overbought conditions and going short.

Posted October 28, 2011 by edmcgon in Daytrading

Ed’s Daily Notes for October 28th   5 comments

Samsung overtakes Apple in smartphone sales

According to Strategy Analytics, Samsung is now the biggest seller of smartphones in the world. However, as much respect as I have for Samsung, this news should be viewed with a critical eye. I work with a woman who used to work for Motorola, and according to her, smartphone makers are notorious for dumping unlocked smartphones in emerging markets as a way to increase sales. I am not saying this is how Samsung improved their numbers, but it is possible.

That said, Samsung did beat analysts’ estimates with their earnings report. Samsung is one of the few companies involved in the smartphone business which looks like it has staying power over the long-term.

The Spanish Mess

Spain’s unemployment rate hit a 15-year high of 21.5%, as consumer prices rose another 3% in October (after a 3% increase in September). But Europe is fixed, right?

Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The bond market knows…

Absolutely Europe is fixed! Italian 10-year bonds hit a new high of 6.06%. But…but…I thought Merkel and Sarkozy fixed everything?

Occupy London, but only part-time

It seems somebody used a thermal camera on the “Occupy London” protest, and discovered that 90% of the tents were unoccupied overnight. I can’t blame them, since I would rather sleep in my own bed at home, rather than a tent in London during an October night…

Posted October 28, 2011 by edmcgon in Economy, Market Analysis