It would be impossible to do a weekend open thread without a Clint Eastwood-related topic today. So here it is: Clint Eastwood’s 3 most unusual co-stars:
1. Manis (Clyde in Every Which Way but Loose): Sorry, but the victory has to go to the orangutan.
2. Alan Hale Jr. (Matt Stone in Hang ‘Em High): It is hard to believe Eastwood did a movie with the Skipper from Gilligan’s Island.
3. Don Rickles (Sgt. Crapgame in Kelly’s Heroes): It is hard to picture Rickles tossing off his trademark insults to Eastwood, and living to tell about it.
Unfortunately, I won’t have time to post my portfolio results today because I have to leave at the market’s closing time. I am going to visit my dad for the weekend. Hopefully, I will have time to do it Monday.
Speaking of Monday, don’t forget the U.S. markets will be closed Monday for Labor Day. Enjoy your long weekend folks!
PORTFOLIO UPDATE: My portfolio finished Friday up 0.55%.
Unless you happen to know what Ben Bernanke will say today, as well as what investors will think of it, your best bet is to sit back and watch what the markets do after he speaks. Be careful though, because the markets could pull a 180 degree turn from their initial reaction as they digest his speech.
Although the resistance/support levels aren’t as important today, here are the S&P 500 levels to watch today:
UPSIDE:1404-1407 (11 data points including the 20 day moving average), 1409-1418 (16 data points, including May’s high and the 10 day moving average), 1421 (the top of the Bollinger Bands), 1422 (April’s high), and 1426 (August 21st’s high). LAST CLOSE: 1394-1401 (12 data points, including yesterday’s close of 1399). DOWNSIDE: 1392 (the bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1391 (July’s high and August 6th’s low), and 1354 (August’s low).
You will notice how the Bollinger Bands have tightened up, with only 29 points from top to bottom. Don’t be surprised if we trade above or below the Bollinger Bands at some point today, based on response to Bernanke’s speech. The Bollinger Bands are reflecting the low volume and tight trading range we have had for the past week, which may not apply today.
I hate political conventions. It is just a bunch of cheerleading for political party partisans. However, I couldn’t resist watching Clint Eastwood’s speech last night at the Republican Convention:
Admittedly, Eastwood is not the greatest public speaker, but he is still an American icon, and I have the greatest respect for him as an actor, a director, and a person.
The intriguing part about Eastwood’s speech was also the silliest, and most awkward, part: the empty chair. I have a gut feeling that may be one of those things that resonate in our culture. While the Left will undoubtedly mock it, the central message of it, that Obama’s presidency has been empty, will remain. As always, Eastwood has that knack for making a point in the public consciousness.
Oh, and some guy named Mitt accepted the Republican nomination…
In other news, we have finally arrived at the day of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech (at 10 am EST). Although the markets seemed to anticipate some kind of QE3 hint from it earlier this month, the markets have backtracked a little this week. I predict Bernanke may hint at what the Fed could do, but he won’t make any commitments.
There are two factors holding Bernanke back: first, it is an election year, so anything the Fed does probably won’t happen until November; and second, the world currency wars. With a potentially large “quantitative easing” (read: sovereign bond purchasing) coming from the European Central Bank, the Fed will hold off to see how big the ECB goes before announcing a QE3 program. Don’t be surprised if the ECB prints a trillion euros, the Fed follows with roughly the same amount in a QE3.
Mind you, I am NOT saying QE3 will do anything for the U.S. economy. It won’t. But it will help the stock markets, as well as the commodity markets.
BAC: -0.09 to $7.91 (-1.13%, -0.50% overall)–bought at $7.95
EUO: 0.10 to $21.33 (0.47%, 0.80% overall)–bought at $21.16
LINE: 0.00 to $39.30 (0.00%, -0.53% overall)–bought at $39.51
NNVC: -0.06 to $0.67 (-8.22%, 11.67% overall)–bought at $0.60
SLW: -0.50 to $32.89 (-1.50%, 6.96% overall)–bought at $30.75
YHOO: -0.17 to $14.67 (-1.15%, -3.30% overall)–bought at $15.17
One thing I have noticed is how a lot of charts are starting to form what looks like a bullish pennant formation. Be careful going into September with a bearish assumption. Even though September has a bad reputation historically, the S&P 500 has closed higher in 3 of the last 5 years during September.
The S&P 500 levels to watch today:
UPSIDE: 1422 (April’s high), 1426 (August 21st’s high), and 1427 (the top of the Bollinger Bands). LAST CLOSE: 1409-1418 (15 data points, including May’s high, the 10 day moving average, and yesterday’s close of 1410) DOWNSIDE:1404-1407 (11 data points including the 20 day moving average), 1394-1401 (11 data points), 1387-1391 (4 data points, including July’s high), 1385 (August 1st’s high), 1381 (the bottom of the Bollinger Bands).
Although we get the weekly U.S. unemployment claims today, the markets will be waiting with anticipation for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow.
A good summary of the European situation over the next few weeks:
September offers a microcosm of three years of crisis- fighting. The next two weeks may feature fresh anti-contagion measures from the European Central Bank, a possible aid request from Spain and insight into whether creditors will ease Greece’s bailout terms. German judges and Dutch voters also get to proclaim on the euro’s future.
My guess? The ECB will buy sovereign bonds, Spain will request aid, and Greece will get no relief for their bailout terms. As for the other items, I have no clue.
Politics and business should not be mixed. Kudos to Yahoo for doing the right thing in this situation:
David Chalian, the Yahoo News Washington Bureau chief, has been fired after getting caught on a hot mike telling a fellow host on an live ABC News web show to “feel free to say” that “they” — Mitt Romney and his fellow Republicans — “are happy to have a party with black people drowning.”
The implication: that Republicans’ decision to continue with their convention despite the hurricane hitting New Orleans means they don’t care about black people.
…Yahoo has released a statement apologizing for the comment and announcing that Chalian had been terminated.
“David Chalian’s statement was inappropriate and does not represent the views of Yahoo!.” the statement reads. “He has been terminated effective immediately. We have already reached out to the Romney campaign, and we apologize to Mitt Romney, his staff, their supporters and anyone who was offended.”
The Media in the U.S. has reached a point where comments like that are made more frequently, and without remorse. The problem with these kinds of comments are they go against journalistic objectivity.
Arthur Brisbane, the New York Times “public editor” (aka ombudsman), described the problem about the Media best in his last column at the New York Times:
When The Times covers a national presidential campaign, I have found that the lead editors and reporters are disciplined about enforcing fairness and balance, and usually succeed in doing so. Across the paper’s many departments, though, so many share a kind of political and cultural progressivism — for lack of a better term — that this worldview virtually bleeds through the fabric of The Times.
As a result, developments like the Occupy movement and gay marriage seem almost to erupt in The Times, overloved and undermanaged, more like causes than news subjects.
If Yahoo wants to set their news operation apart from the rest of the news Media, all it takes is objectivity. Not a conservative or liberal mindset. Just the facts.
He who lives by the nanites, will die by the nanites. Thus spoke my portfolio…
BAC: 0.04 to 8.00 (0.50%, 0.63% overall)–bought at $7.95
EUO: 0.13 to 21.23 (0.62%, 0.33% overall)–bought at $21.16
LINE: -0.33 to 39.30 (-0.83%, -0.53% overall)–bought at $39.51
NNVC: -0.05 to 0.73 (-6.41%, 21.67% overall)–bought at $0.60
SLW: -0.01 to 33.39 (-0.03%, 8.59% overall)–bought at $30.75
YHOO: 0.12 to 14.84 (0.82%, -2.18% overall)–bought at $15.17
UPSIDE: 1422 (April’s high), 1426 (August 21st’s high), 1429 (the top of the Bollinger Bands). LAST CLOSE: 1409-1418 (14 data points, including May’s high, the 10 day moving average, and yesterday’s close of 1409) DOWNSIDE:1404-1407 (9 data points), 1403 (20 day moving average), 1394-1401 (11 data points), 1387-1391 (4 data points, including July’s high), 1385 (August 1st’s high), 1376 (the bottom of the Bollinger Bands).
We will get the U.S. government’s second attempt at the 2nd quarter’s GDP today at 8:30 am EST. Last time, they said it increased by 1.5%. According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, expect that number to be revised upwards to 1.7%, although the consensus range is from 1.4% to 2.0%.
Thought the global financial crisis in 2008 was caused by subprime bonds, collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and other Wall Street engineering? Think again.
According to a new study, China, not Wall Street bankers, was responsible for the global crisis and the ensuing recession.
The study from the Erasmus Research Institute of Management says the saving frenzy of the Chinese created the cheap money, which fuelled the U.S. housing bubble and its collapse.
Heleen Mees, writer of the study and assistant economics professor at Tilburg University in the Netherlands, says that exotic mortgage products could hardly have been the cause of the U.S. housing market bubble and the its ultimate collapse.
According to the study, mortgages with those special features — like mortgage-backed securities and CDOs — accounted for less than five percent of the total number of new mortgages from 2000 to 2006.
Mees, author of three books and contributor for Foreign Policy magazine, says it was the “loose” monetary policy of the Federal Reserve at the beginning of the decade which sparked a refinancing boom in the U.S. in 2003 and 2004 and a growth in personal spending. This U.S. spending binge fuelled economic growth in China and in turn boosted total savings in that country.
The study, which compared financial market responses to U.S., Chinese and German quarterly GDP from 2006 through 2009, shows that the Chinese have been saving more than half of their GDP during that time. Those savings were heavily skewed towards fixed income assets like government bonds and depressed interest rates worldwide from 2004 on.
This allowed for interest rates around the world to fall, and sparked a boom in the U.S. housing market due to the availability of cheap money.
I am still missing the connection between China and the U.S. crash (feel free to explain that to me). However, the connection between Bernanke and the crash is obvious.
In case anyone is wondering, the following press release from NanoViricides (NNVC) is why they shot up yesterday:
NanoViricides, Inc. (NNVC) (the “Company”) announced today that anti-influenza drug candidates under its FluCide™ program, when given orally, were nearly as effective as when administered as IV injections in terms of reduction in lung viral load. Two different anti-influenza drug candidates were tested in Oral vs. IV comparison, and both of them showed similar results that indicated strong oral effectiveness. The results clearly demonstrated that oral administration of both of these FluCide drug candidates resulted in substantially superior animal protection compared to oseltamivir (Tamiflu®), a standard of care for influenza at present. The studies involved the same highly lethal animal model the Company has continued to use for its influenza drug development program.
One of the FluCide drug candidates, when administered orally, resulted in 1.30 log reduction (or 20X reduction) in lung viral load and matched the viral load reduction on the same drug candidate given as an IV injection. Another drug candidate resulted in 1.23 log viral load reduction when given orally and 1.31 log viral load reduction when given as an injectable. In contrast, oseltamivir (Tamiflu®, given orally at 40mg/kg/d) resulted in only 0.6 log viral load reduction (or only 4X reduction) compared to negative controls. These were the results of lung viral load measured at 108 hours post-infection (hpi). Further, at 180 hpi, the lung viral load remained controlled at about the same level as at 108 hpi with the nanoviricide® drug candidates. In contrast, lung viral load in the oseltamivir treated mice increased to the same level as the negative control (infected untreated) animals prior to their death and the oseltamivir group exhibited a survival of only 182±4 hours.
The number of lung plaques and plaque areas (resulting from the influenza virus infection) also were consistent with the data from the lung viral load, and were minimal in the case of the nanoviricide drug candidates whether given as IV or orally. Oseltamivir treatment did not protect the lungs of infected animals anywhere close to the protection afforded by the FluCide drug candidates.
These data clearly demonstrated that both oral and IV treatment with nanoviricide drug candidates protected the lungs of the mice infected with influenza virus equally well. It is also clear that this lung protection was the result of the substantial decrease in the lung viral load. In addition, they show that FluCide drug candidates when given orally had substantial efficacy, almost matching the effectiveness of the injectable form given at 0.3X of the oral dosage level.
These data also clearly demonstrated that the FluCide drug candidates were substantially superior to oseltamivir or Tamiflu, the current standard of care for influenza infections.
Admittedly, animal testing is a world away from human testing, but I would call these test results extremely positive.
BAC: -0.11 to 7.96 (-1.36%, 0.13% overall)–bought at $7.95
EUO: -0.23 to 21.10 (-1.08%, -0.28% overall)–bought at $21.16
LINE: 0.12 to 39.63 (0.30%, 0.30% overall)–bought at $39.51
NNVC: 0.16 to 0.78 (25.81%, 30.00% overall)–bought at $0.60
SLW: -0.38 to 33.40 (-1.12%, 8.62% overall)–bought at $30.75
YHOO: -0.13 to 14.72 (-0.88%, -2.97% overall)–bought at $15.17
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