BAC: 0.06 to $7.34 (0.82%, -7.67% overall)–bought at $7.95
EUO: -0.16 to $22.06 (-0.72%, 4.25% overall)–bought at $21.16
NNVC: 0.03 to $0.51 (6.25%, -15.00% overall)–bought at $0.60
SPXU: 0.89 to $45.16 (2.01%, -9.73% overall)–bought at $50.03

OVERALL: +1.30%

I don’t expect any huge moves in the markets today, with the Federal Reserve announcement due tomorrow. So here are the S&P 500 levels to watch:

UPSIDE: 1388 (top of the Bollinger Bands), 1389 (July 27th’s high), 1391 (July 30th’s high), 1415 (May’s high), and 1422 (April’s high).
DOWNSIDE: 1365-1367 (5 data points), 1360-1363 (12 data points including the 10 day moving average), 1354-1358 (12 data points, including the 20 day moving average), 1345-1348 (6 data points), 1341 (July 12th’s high and July 10th and 11th’s close), 1337 (July 25th’s close and June 22nd’s high), 1336 (50 day moving average), 1333-1334 (7 data points), 1331 (July 25th’s low and June 28th’s high), and 1328 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

Bloomberg: Stocks Perform Better if Women Are on Company Boards
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-31/women-as-directors-beat-men-only-boards-in-company-stock-return.html

Something to consider when investing:

Companies with women on their boards performed better in challenging markets than those with all-male boards in a study suggesting that mixing genders may temper risky investment moves and increase return on equity.

Shares of companies with a market capitalization of more than $10 billion and with women board members outperformed comparable businesses with all-male boards by 26 percent worldwide over a period of six years, according to a report by the Credit Suisse Research Institute, created in 2008 to analyze trends expected to affect global markets.

CNBC: Wall Street Already Betting On Who Wins in November
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48400076

Intriguing theory:

One analysis concludes that last week’s sharp three-day market surge can only mean that Wall Street is banking on a victory from Republican Mitt Romney.

That’s the logical interpretation one can draw from a rally amid conditions that otherwise would demand a selloff, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Adam S. Parker said in an analysis that asserts there is no other reason now to like stocks than a Romney win.

“The problem is that it’s impossible to be bullish and right for the right reasons,” Parker said in a note to clients in which he reiterated his 2012 price target for the Standard & Poor’s 500 at 1,214, which would mark a 12 percent drop from the current level.

“Nearly every day someone expresses surprise that our base case is for the equity market to be down by 10-15 percent. Why is this so hard to believe? The market has had eight 10 percent down moves in the last 12 years,” Parker said. “We think a better question is why more people don’t forecast that the next 10-15 percent move is down than up?”

Parker cites weak earnings and the likelihood that central bankers won’t be able to continue to save the day as bolstering the case against equities. The near-zero interest rate policies from the Federal Reserve and now the European Central Bank, in fact, are weakening the outlook for stock multiples, he said.

…The conclusion Parker draws is that investors are betting that Romney will unseat President Obama and bring a more business-friendly environment to the White House.

“At the end of the day, we are not really worried that Europe is going to be ‘solved’ or that its economy will strongly grow. We also don’t think strong corporate profitability relative to expectations will save the day,” he said.

“To us, the biggest bull case for US equities is based on the huge cash balances and the potential belief that they will be more actively and productively deployed. The biggest possibility here would be Romney winning the presidential election.”

I don’t necessarily agree with this theory. The polling doesn’t suggest that Romney is a shoe-in:

Recent polls have the race in nearly a dead heat, with the Real Clear Politics consensus putting Obama up by less than 2 percentage points.

At the same time, Intrade, the online forum that allows investors to bet on outcomes of various events, has Obama with a firm 57 percent likelihood of re-election.

BAC: -0.03 to $7.28 (-0.41%, -8.43% overall)–bought at $7.95
EUO: 0.15 to $22.22 (0.68%, 5.01% overall)–bought at $21.16
NNVC: -0.04 to $0.48 (-7.69%, -20.00% overall)–bought (dollar cost averaged today) at $0.60
SPXU: -0.03 to $44.27 (-0.07%, -11.51% overall)–bought (dollar cost averaged today) at $50.03

OVERALL: -0.14%

I added some more NanoViricides (NNVC) today at $0.497. That lowers my dollar cost average to $0.5974, but I will call it 60 cents.

This is one of those rare combination long-term/short-term plays. I will maintain a small position for the long-term, but I am also playing it for the occasional “penny stock bounce”. The funny thing is that I don’t even have a full position (10% of my portfolio) yet.

P.S. I have lowered my good-til-cancelled limit sell order on it to 67 cents for 3/4 of my total position.

With all that is happening later this week, I really don’t expect a huge move today, unless the rumor mill gets churning.

However, the S&P 500 is also sitting at the top of the Bollinger Bands (1385), which means any moves up will be slow trudges. Not impossible, but it will be slow.

Here are the S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1389 (July 27th’s high), 1415 (May’s high), and 1422 (April’s high).
DOWNSIDE: 1365-1367 (5 data points), 1360-1363 (12 data points including the 10 day moving average), 1354-1358 (12 data points, including the 20 day moving average), 1345-1348 (6 data points), 1341 (July 12th’s high and July 10th and 11th’s close), 1337 (July 25th’s close and June 22nd’s high), 1333-1334 (8 data points including the 50 day moving average), 1331 (July 25th’s low and June 28th’s high), and 1330 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands and the low from June 29th).

Even with just the European Central Bank (Thursday) and the Federal Reserve (Tuesday-Wednesday) meetings this week, it would be a big week for the markets. But we also have:

TUESDAY: June’s Personal Income and Spending report, Pfizer (PFE) earnings
WEDNESDAY: July’s ADP Employment report
THURSDAY: June’s Factory Orders
FRIDAY: July’s U.S. Employment report, Proctor & Gamble (PG) earnings

Can you stand the anticipation?

Bloomberg: Fed Weighs Cutting Interest on Banks’ Reserves After ECB Move
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-30/fed-weighs-cutting-interest-on-banks-reserves-after-ecb-move.html

Speaking of the Federal Reserve:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may be taking another look at cutting the interest rate the Fed pays on bank reserves to bring down short-term borrowing costs and spur the slowing U.S. expansion.

Bernanke testified to Congress on July 17 that reducing the rate from its current 0.25 percent is one of several easing steps the Fed might take to reduce unemployment stuck above 8 percent for more than three years. In February, by contrast, the Fed chairman told Congress that lowering the rate might drive away investors from short-term money markets.

Even if the Fed is considering this, I don’t expect they will make a move until after November’s election. Ironically, with the U.S. markets doing quite well, and last Friday’s GDP report coming in positive, there is even less incentive for the Fed to do anything right away.

Businessweek: Why Marissa Mayer May Not Fit Yahoo
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-07-17/why-marissa-mayer-may-not-fit-yahoo

This Businessweek article is the classic example of business thinking versus innovative thinking. For example:

As Forrester analyst Shar VanBoskirk notes, one of the biggest challenges for Yahoo in the past has been defining exactly what it is. Is it a technology company? Is it an advertising platform? Is it an e-commerce player? Each of the past five CEOs has had a different vision, and Mayer will need to have one, too. But is that the kind of thing she will be able to provide?

Says VanBoskirk: “Yahoo! needs a strategic visionary, not a product engineer. Yahoo!’s fundamental problem is that it has too many disparate products with no clear unifying thread that ties them all together. And Mayer’s background is in product development … not corporate strategy, not marketing, not brand definition … the areas where Yahoo! has the most critical need.”

I would ask VanBoskirk if he has seen what other internet companies are doing lately? Google, Amazon, and Facebook have all been moving into hardware, while Apple has been trying to move into media. The lines are getting blurred between the internet and the hardware used for it. At some point, Yahoo will have to move into another area that may not seem a logical fit.

I would also remind VanBoskirk, as well as the writer of the article, that Bill Gates and Steve Jobs both started out as “product engineers”, who ended up being “strategic visionaries”. I won’t go so far as to say that Marissa Mayer should be lumped in with those guys, but I would feel better about the long-term prospects of Yahoo in the hands of a “product engineer” with a proven track record, as opposed to another business school graduate of the “old boy’s network”. Admittedly, Mayer is a gamble for Yahoo. But the payoff is a lot bigger than installing a Jack Welch-wannabe in the CEO’s job.

Here is the one thread you have all been waiting for (ok, maybe two of you): This weekend’s open thread! I will post my portfolio results later, but here is your thread for discussing any topic you like.

For any of you who are fans of the comedian Gallagher, here is an ad you should love:

For those of you who aren’t Gallagher fans, here is one of the great philosophers of the 20th century, George Carlin (note there is some less-than-clean language here, but the intelligence of his thoughts aren’t compromised):

Have a great weekend folks!

PORTFOLIO UPDATE: Another brutal day, with my portfolio dropping 3.7%.

This is incredible (from Reuters):

Spain has for the first time conceded it might need a full EU/IMF bailout worth 300 billion euros ($366 billion) if its borrowing costs remain unsustainably high, a euro zone official said.

Economy Minister Luis de Guindos brought up the issue with German counterpart Wolfgang Schaeuble in a meeting in Berlin last Tuesday as Spain’s borrowing costs soared past 7.6 percent, the source said.

If needed, the money would come on top of the 100 billion euros already agreed to prop up Spain’s banking sector, stretching the euro zone’s resources to breaking point, and Schaeuble told de Guindos he was unwilling to consider a rescue before the currency bloc’s ESM bailout fund comes on line later this year.

“De Guindos was talking about 300 billion euros for a full program, but Germany was not comfortable with the idea of a bailout now,” the official told Reuters.

“Nothing will happen until the ESM is online. Once it is operational we will see what the borrowing costs for Spain are and maybe we will return to the question,” the official said.

If true, this shows that Spain’s problems are worse than any politician in Europe is publicly saying. But I think most of us already suspected this.

The worst part about this is that Spain’s problems won’t get any better while Germany is busy playing hardball in negotiations. And I feel safe in saying Spain’s leaders won’t make the hard choices that need to be made right now, as evidenced by the fact they would rather go to Germany with their figurative tail between their legs, begging for money. Even from here in the U.S., I knew the Germans would say “nein” to such a request.

The euro is down a little this morning, although that could easily change by the time you read this. The initial move this morning will most likely be based on the GDP report at 8:30 am EST. If the GDP report is in line with estimates (about a 1.2% increase) or better, the markets could actually see that as a negative sign, as the liquidity junkies will see QE3 slipping away. To be honest, the daytraders who watch the minute-by-minute moves will probably be at an advantage today, because the logical move may not be what the markets do.

But here are the S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1361-1363 (10 data points), 1365-1367 (5 data points), 1380 (July’s high), and 1381 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
DOWNSIDE: 1354-1358 (13 data points, including 10 and 20 day moving averages), 1345-1348 (6 data points), 1341 (July 12th’s high and July 10th and 11th’s close), 1337 (July 25th’s close and June 22nd’s high), 1333-1334 (8 data points including the 50 day moving average), 1331 (July 25th’s low and June 28th’s high), 1329 (July 24th’s low and June 15th’s low), and 1327 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

The main takeaway above is that the S&P 500 has less upside (1.5%) than downside (2.4%). That isn’t a prediction of direction, just an observation. There is also a lot of strong support to the downside.