Archive for August 2011

End of the Jetson Month: Ed’s Daily Summary for August 31st   18 comments

My read on the markets today: They were glad to be out of August, giving a seemingly George Jetson-esque, “Jane, get me out of this crazy month! JAAAAAAANE!” Personally, I agree, as my portfolio finished the last day of the month with a yawn-inducing loss:

EMLC: 0.20 to $27.76 (0.73%, 0.69% overall)–bought at $27.57
GPE_PA: -0.05 to $26.65 (-0.19%, 5.36% overall)–bought at $25.295
INTC: -0.11 to $20.13 (-0.54%, -4.14% overall)–bought at $21.00
NNVC: -0.01 to $1.09 (-0.91%, -14.17% overall)–bought at $1.27
SLRC: 0.12 to $23.12 (0.52%, 11.42% overall)–bought at $20.75
XIV: -0.03 to $7.87 (-0.38%, -20.98% overall)–bought at $9.96

OVERALL: -0.01%

Posted August 31, 2011 by edmcgon in Market Analysis, Portfolio

Quote of the day   7 comments

Gentlemen, you can’t fight in here! This is the War Room!“–Peter Sellers as the President in Dr. Strangelove (written by Stanley Kubrick, Peter George, and Terry Southern)

Posted August 31, 2011 by edmcgon in Humor

Happy birthday!   35 comments

Happy birthday to our very own Mike and Chris! I’d ask both of you how many “paws” old you are, but I suspect that would make you centipedes!

Posted August 31, 2011 by edmcgon in Blog stuff

War drums: Ed’s Daily Notes for August 31st   18 comments

That sound you hear is war drums starting to bang just a little louder in the Middle East.

First, we have Israel sending two more warships into the Red Sea, near their border with Egypt, after several terrorist attacks which were initiated in Egypt. Then we get Iran sending their 15th Fleet into the Red Sea (suuuuure it’s a peaceful mission!).

Add to that tension the problems in Syria, which was given ultimatums to end it’s crackdown on protests by the European Union, Russia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. If the UN Security Council initiates stiff sanctions against Syria, one theory is that President Assad will choose to attack Israel, since he will already be backed into a corner. It is safe to say that Iran would fully support this, and the Middle East would become a big war zone.

I won’t say war is inevitable, but the probability of it is growing. A long position on oil (unleveraged) is advisable now as portfolio protection.

From Bloomberg:

U.S. factory orders probably rose 2 percent in July after a 0.8 percent decline the prior month, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts before today’s Commerce Department report. Data from ADP Employer Services may show companies added 100,000 workers this month, down from 114,000 in July.

It looks like Germany will approve the European Financial Stability Facility after all, although the coalition government might end up losing several regional elections scheduled for next month. I would call it a small price to pay, but Germany’s guaranty of 211 billion euros is not exactly chump change…

CNBC is reporting, “Employers Plan to Cut 51,114 Jobs in Aug., 23% Down From July”. If you need a reason to be bullish today, this is a good one.

Posted August 31, 2011 by edmcgon in Economy, Market Analysis

S&P update & Ed’s Daily Summary for August 30th   1 comment

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 was confusing today. On one hand, it finished above resistance (1208); on the other hand, the dropoff at the end of the day to finish at 1212 has to leave leave you wondering about tomorrow. My guess is since the S&P was coming off a double bottom at 1121 when it broke through the resistance at 1208, tomorrow should be a continued run upwards (barring bad news, of course). But that leaves the question of: Running up to where? The next resistance I see is at 1257, although I would be surprised if the S&P gets there in one day.

As for my portfolio, I gave back to the markets most of what I made yesterday:
EMLC: 0.16 to $27.56 (0.58%, -0.04% overall)–bought at $27.57
GPE_PA: -0.07 to $26.70 (-0.26%, 5.55% overall)–bought at $25.295
INTC: -0.05 to $20.24 (-0.25%, -3.62% overall)–bought at $21.00
NNVC: 0.01 to $1.10 (0.92%, -13.39% overall)–bought at $1.27
SLRC: -0.06 to $23.00 (-0.26%, 10.84% overall)–bought at $20.75
XIV: -0.08 to $7.90 (-1.00%, -20.68% overall)–bought at $9.96

OVERALL: -2.11%

Posted August 30, 2011 by edmcgon in Market Analysis, Portfolio

Crazy Eddie’s mini-fire sale   23 comments

Time for me to get rid of most of my portfolio, in preparation for my broker transfer.

First, my keepers:
1. NanoViricides (NNVC)
2. Intel (INTC)
3. Solar Capital (SLRC)
4. Market Vectors Emerging Market Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC)
5. Georgia Power Preferred (GPE_PA)

And now the holdings for sale, with initial limit sale orders:
1. PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ) at $4.90
2. VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN (XIV) at $9.15

If I can’t sell XIV near that price today, and I don’t think it’s likely, then I will just transfer it with the rest. I am not fond of holding a risky play like that for an extended period, although I may just sell off part of it just to lower my exposure.

Regardless, DZZ is going today.

UPDATE 10:05 am:

I sold about 64% of my position in XIV at $7.70. After the poor consumer confidence report came out, I figured that was as good as I would get on this position. I can still claim a profit on this part of my position, but that pushed my dollar cost average back on my remaining holdings back to my original position of $9.96. My final line for the XIV I sold today:
XIV: -0.28 today, +0.39 overall to $7.70 (-3.51% today, +5.32% overall)–bought at $7.3111

UPDATE 2:18 pm:

I decided to eat my losses on DZZ and sold it at $4.30. With the Fed minutes out today, and a few Fed governors whispering sweet nothings into the gold market’s ear, I have no chance with this one. Here is the final line:
DZZ: -0.33 today, -0.50 overall to $4.30 (-7.13% today, -10.50% overall)–bought at $4.80425

Posted August 30, 2011 by edmcgon in Portfolio Moves, Strategy

Interactive Brokers question   12 comments

I noticed that Interactive Brokers (another online brokerage) has a mobile trading platform. I am curious if any of you have any experience with it, or are currently using it, and any opinions you may have about it? (I may have some more questions for you later.)

I know I said I was going to use Tradestation, but I might change my mind. Interactive Brokers was actually my original choice, but because of the firewall at work, I dropped it. When i read they had the mobile platform, I reconsidered.

Posted August 30, 2011 by edmcgon in Investing Education