Archive for the ‘Blog stuff’ Category

A Farewell   63 comments

Unfortunately, life is what it is. For me, work has just gotten too hectic for me to maintain this blog. While I have enjoyed the last 4 years with all of you, I just don’t have the time to post any more.

Feel free to comment in this last lonely thread, or you can go to Marshall’s blog, MFI Diary. He is a good guy, and a savvy investor, so I think he will take good care of you. While I may not agree with him on every stock, most of his picks are pretty good, when they aren’t awesome.

I am not giving up on investing. To the contrary, this blog has been a wonderful learning experience, and I would recommend it to any of you. My main advice to anyone starting a self-investing blog would be: Maintain a thick skin, and be prepared to listen to a lot of suggestions that just aren’t you. In other words, people will frequently give you tips that won’t suit your style. If you follow those tips, your results will probably show it. But there are also people whose investment tips will suit your style. And that brings us back to the purpose of setting up a self-investing blog: To really learn your own style. I feel comfortable in my investing “suit” now.

Mind you, this doesn’t mean my own style won’t continue to evolve in the future. At the moment, I have a comfortably conservative daytrading scheme (which is still evolving) combined with a long-term value approach. A year from now, this could change.

I wish you all the best, and I appreciate all the time you folks have dedicated to me and my blog. Farewell, and God bless.

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Posted September 3, 2014 by edmcgon in Blog stuff, Open Thread

Weekend Open Thread   Leave a comment

Reminder: U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

Time for the long weekend open thread, where you can talk about whatever you like.

For the last of this summer’s one-hit wonders, I am going to push the limits a little. Murray Head originally reached #14 on the U.S. charts in 1969 with Superstar, from the play Jesus Christ Superstar:

Head played Judas Iscariot in the play. But he had a much bigger hit 25 years later, in 1984, with One Night in Bangkok, from the play Chess. The song reached #3 on the U.S. charts, and #1 in 10 other countries:

The music for One Night in Bangkok was written by Benny Andersson and Björn Ulvaeus, formerly of ABBA (who knew a little bit about writing international hit songs), while the lyrics were written by Ulvaeus and Tim Rice. Rice is known for his collaborations with Andrew Lloyd Webber (i.e. Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat, Jesus Christ Superstar, and Evita). So One Night in Bangkok has a good artistic pedigree.

Unfortunately, this song also gets a William Shatner award for worst cover, from Mike Tyson (yes, THAT Mike Tyson) in the movie Hangover 2:

However, there is a runner-up for the Shatner award: Robey, an actress (best known from the syndicated Friday the 13th tv series) who thinks she can sing:

At least Tyson’s version was mercifully short, and played for laughs. Robey doesn’t even have that excuse.

Enjoy your long weekend folks, and I’ll see you next week! I am outta here!

Posted August 29, 2014 by edmcgon in Blog stuff, Music, Open Thread

Ed’s Daily Notes and Traders Corner for July 25th   21 comments

I am being lazy today and combining my morning posts into one.

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1989 (July 23rd’s high), and 1991 (July 24th’s high and the all-time high and the top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1987.
DOWNSIDE: 1972-1986 (20 data points and the 20 day moving average), 1968-1969 (2 data points and June’s high), 1965 (3 data points), 1962 (July 1st’s low), 1959-1960 (3 data points), 1955 (July 17th’s low), 1954 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1952 (July 10th’s low), and 1944 (50 day moving average).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bearish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bullish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Overbought
S&P 500 Futures: Negative
Overall: That was a short bull move! The top of the S&P 500’s Bollinger Bands are providing firm resistance, as the 1972-1986 range seems to be providing firm support. We may see another run at the top of the BB’s today, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the S&P 500 close down in the 1972-1986 range today.

And now for the news…

Wall Street Journal: Google’s New Moonshot Project: the Human Body

Google Inc. has embarked on what may be its most ambitious and difficult science project ever: a quest inside the human body.

Called Baseline Study, the project will collect anonymous genetic and molecular information from 175 people—and later thousands more—to create what the company hopes will be the fullest picture of what a healthy human being should be.

The early-stage project is run by Andrew Conrad, a 50-year-old molecular biologist who pioneered cheap, high-volume tests for HIV in blood-plasma donations.

Dr. Conrad joined Google X—the company’s research arm—in March 2013, and he has built a team of about 70-to-100 experts from fields including physiology, biochemistry, optics, imaging and molecular biology.

Other mass medical and genomics studies exist. But Baseline will amass a much larger and broader set of new data. The hope is that this will help researchers detect killers such as heart disease and cancer far earlier, pushing medicine more toward prevention rather than the treatment of illness.

“With any complex system, the notion has always been there to proactively address problems,” Dr. Conrad said. “That’s not revolutionary. We are just asking the question: If we really wanted to be proactive, what would we need to know? You need to know what the fixed, well-running thing should look like.”

The project won’t be restricted to specific diseases, and it will collect hundreds of different samples using a wide variety of new diagnostic tools. Then Google will use its massive computing power to find patterns, or “biomarkers,” buried in the information. The hope is that these biomarkers can be used by medical researchers to detect any disease a lot earlier.

From an objective standpoint, this is fascinating. As a Google investor, I love how they are looking in different areas well beyond their expertise. They may get nothing from it, or they might create something beneficial to mankind (which could come with lots of dollar signs attached). Either way, I am pleased with my investment.

Market Watch: Greenspan says bubbles can’t be stopped without ‘crunch’

The article above is a must-read interview with former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. Whether you agree or disagree with him, his views are intriguing.

Happy Birthday ETS! Ed’s Daily Notes for July 24th   14 comments

Birthday cat2

On July 24, 2010, I put up the first post for this blog. 4 years later, it is still moving along nicely. As always, I thank all of you for making this a worthwhile endeavor. Happy birthday folks!

Bloomberg: Buffett’s Stock Gauge Seen Outdoing Shiller’s

Market Value

Warren Buffett’s favorite stock-market ratio is a more telling indicator of the outlook for share prices than one developed by Yale University’s Robert Shiller, according to a newly revised study.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the market value of U.S. companies as a percentage of gross national product before inflation, using data compiled by the Federal Reserve and the Commerce Department. In a 2001 article for Fortune magazine, Buffett wrote that the ratio was “the best single measure of where valuations stand.”

A similar indicator, based on non-financial companies and gross domestic product, was cited in the study. The barometer was compared with Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, or CAPE, calculated by dividing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index by average annual profit for the previous 10 years.

…The market value-GDP ratio works even better to forecast stock returns after adjustments for demographics and household income and spending, according to the study.

In my opinion, the market value-GDP ratio works because it reflects Fed rates. (It is nearly an inverse of this Effective Federal Funds Rate chart.) Yet more reason for the old adage, “Don’t fight the Fed.”

July 17th: Ed’s Daily IRA Summary   Leave a comment

Another good day with my usual daytrade today, especially because I used SPXU:

Ed’s IRA: 0.38%
DJIA: -0.94%
Nasdaq: -1.41%
S&P 500: -1.18%

On a side note, I will be skipping the usual daily notes post tomorrow, because I have some plans for this evening, so it will be a late night for me. But I should be able to post the usual Traders Corner.

Posted July 17, 2014 by edmcgon in Blog stuff, Open Thread, Portfolio

Traders Corner (7/1/2014)   18 comments

Nothing exciting on the news front today, so I am skipping the daily notes today. Also, I probably won’t be doing any trading this week: I am on vacation, and my schedule is packed, so I won’t be doing the daily summary at the end of the day this entire week (although I will do the usual weekend open thread on Thursday). Today, the family and I are going to Oatland Island Wildlife Center, one of the hidden gems in the Savannah area. Yesterday, we went to see Maleficent, which I highly recommend.

But on to today’s technicals…

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1963-1964 (3 data points), 1968 (June’s high and the all-time high), and 1972 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1960, inside the 1957-1961 (7 data points) range.
DOWNSIDE: 1955 (June 9th’s high), 1947-1950 (5 data points and the 20 day moving average), 1924 (May’s high and the bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1911 (50 day moving average), 1897 (April’s high), 1883 (March’s high), and 1881 (100 day moving average).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bearish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Positive
Overall: The S&P 500 futures are strongly positive today, so expect a strong opening. How we finish the day is anyone’s guess, as the technicals are quite mixed.

June 24th: Ed’s Daily IRA Summary   Leave a comment

I apologize if I am not posting or commenting much, but I barely had time to daytrade today (it was a slight loser). But I am on vacation starting Thursday, and you folks know how that goes: A 3-day week only means doing a full-week’s worth of work in 3 days…

Ed’s IRA: -0.07%
DJIA: -0.70%
Nasdaq: -0.42%
S&P 500: -0.64%

Posted June 24, 2014 by edmcgon in Blog stuff, Open Thread, Portfolio