Archive for April 2013

April 30th: Ed’s Daily Portfolio Summary   7 comments

BEAV: 0.55 to $62.74 ( 0.88% , 6.39% overall)– bought at $58.97
GNW: 0.09 to $10.03 ( 0.91% , 7.04% overall)– bought at $9.37
GOOG: 5.51 to $824.57 ( 0.67% , 3.00% overall)– bought at $800.52
IAU: 0.06 to $14.36 ( 0.42% , 6.21% overall)– bought at $13.52
NNVC: -0.03 to $0.58 ( -4.92% , 23.40% overall)– bought at $0.47
QCOM: -0.01 to $61.60 ( -0.02% , -0.61% overall)– bought at $61.98
SIVR: -0.06 to $24.03 ( -0.25% , 3.76% overall)– bought at $23.16
SWHC: -0.06 to $8.78 ( -0.68% , 1.62% overall)– bought at $8.64
YHOO: 0.30 to $24.73 ( 1.23% , 2.40% overall)– bought at $24.15

OVERALL: +0.11%


Posted April 30, 2013 by edmcgon in Portfolio

Update: Qualcomm (QCOM)   11 comments

The more I read about Qualcomm (QCOM), the more I like it. When I was reading up on the HTC smartphones today, I was pleased to see how well they did performance-wise, which is mostly due to their QCOM Snapdragon processors (admittedly, the rest of the hardware architecture, as well as the software, can influence performance too, but usually testing, if performed properly, should be able to eliminate most of the software aspect, other than the operating system).

But QCOM’s drop today, on no real news, looks good to me, so I doubled my position at $61.46, lowering my dollar cost average to $61.98.

Posted April 30, 2013 by edmcgon in Portfolio Moves

A new leader in the smartphone market?   2 comments

I was reading “Samsung’s Mediocre S4 Reviews Are Bad News for Apple” over at Motley Fool, and the key takeaway wasn’t what I expected. There may be a new leader about to step up in the smartphone market, and it isn’t Samsung or Apple, or even Blackberry. It is HTC, with their new model “One”. I even did my own research, and the tech media seems to love the new HTC phone, much moreso than the Galaxy S4.

Just one problem: You can only buy HTC over-the-counter in the U.S. (symbol: HTCKF), and the OTC stock has almost no volume. If you can trade on the Taiwan exchange, it’s a great buy under symbol 2498.

Alternatively, you could buy one of HTC’s suppliers, such as Qualcomm (QCOM), who makes their processors. (I know, that was a shameless plug for one of my stocks.)

Another much lesser alternative is the etf route. But the best etf for Taiwan is the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT), and HTC is only 1.67% of EWT’s holdings. However, if you happen to like Taiwan Semiconducter (TSM), it represents 21.25% of EWT’s holdings. Unfortunately, buying the etf is also buying Taiwan’s economy, which “only” grew by 1.5% last quarter. In addition, Taiwan’s biggest export partner is China, getting over 28% of Taiwan’s exports (source: CIA Factbook). There are a lot of factors in Taiwan, ergo a lot of factors in EWT.

Truth be told, I like Taiwan more than HTC, although EWT and Taiwan will undoubtedly benefit from any HTC success. I am adding EWT to my watchlist, because it is too high to buy now. But it could be a good buy on a pullback.

Posted April 30, 2013 by edmcgon in Market Analysis, Stocks

Traders Corner   16 comments

Moving averages? What are those? As of yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 was this far above it’s moving averages:

10 day: +1.46%
20 day: +1.53%
50 day: +2.71%
200 day: +9.18%

For the market to turn definitively long-term bearish, the S&P 500 would have to lose over 9%. Fortunately, that isn’t a concern…(snide sarcasm intended)

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1596-1597 (3 data points, including the all-time high), and 1600 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1593, inside the 1592-1593 (2 data points) range.
DOWNSIDE: 1588-1589 (2 data points), 1585-1586 (2 data points), 1582-1583 (2 data points), 1577-1579 (4 data points), 1573-1575 (5 data points), 1570-1571 (3 data points, including March’s high and the 10 day moving average), 1569 (20 day moving average), 1568 (April 10th’s low), 1551-1565 (29 data points and the 50 day moving average), 1548 (April 22nd’s low), 1543 (April 17th’s low), 1539 (2 data points and the bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1536 (April 18th’s low), 1530 (February’s high), 1509 (January’s high), 1501 (March’s low), 1485 (February’s low), 1474 (2012’s high), and 1457 (200 day moving average).

Posted April 30, 2013 by edmcgon in Daytrading, Investing, Market Analysis

Ed’s Daily Notes for April 30th   3 comments

This is a rare week: We get the two major central banks meeting (the Fed and the European Central Bank), as well as the end of the month today. It is easy to overlook the earnings reports this week: Pfizer today (which missed on sales and cut their outlook for this year), with Merck (MRK), Visa (V), and Comcast (CMCSA) on the docket for tomorrow.

Bloomberg: BlackBerry CEO Questions Future of Tablets

Above is a link to a good article on the state of Blackberry (BBRY) today. Here is the main thing to know:

The Q10, set to go on sale in the U.S. at the end of May, will sell through the four largest U.S. carriers for about $249 on a two-year contract. While that’s $50 more than Apple Inc (AAPL).’s iPhone 5, it’s part of a strategy to target business users willing to pay more for a phone they think will boost their productivity, according to analysts including Anil Doradla at William Blair & Co. in Chicago.

While I would rather own a Q10 than an iPhone, that is a risky strategy by BBRY. I wouldn’t pay more for a Blackberry than I would for a Samsung, LG, or Motorola smartphone. We will see if it pays off for them.

Bloomberg: CEO Pay 1,795-to-1 Multiple of Wages Skirts U.S. Law

The article above uses JC Penney (JCP) as an example of income inequality, which is probably a bad choice, since JCP is in it’s death throes. Clearly, the company paid too much for their CEO, who they later fired, and now they will be lucky to survive the year.

To me, the income inequality issue isn’t about companies overpaying their CEO’s (although in some cases like JCP, they do). It is actually about companies being too big. While economy of scale works to the advantage of large businesses, it also creates a multi-layered bureaucratic monstrosity which requires a highly paid CEO to oversee it. Think about it: If a company has 10,000 employees, how much do you pay the guy at the top of that organization chart?

But the reason companies grow so big, and thrive at the larger size, is because government regulations insulate them from competition. As soon as a small “mom and pop” business grows big enough to start competing with the megacorporations, mom and pop find a whole slew of new regulations they have to deal with, which suck up more of their profits. This is why you hear company founders saying they couldn’t build their businesses in today’s regulatory atmosphere.

I am not saying all regulation is bad. What I am saying is that regulations need to be weighed for their value to society as a whole, versus how much they also tend to moat big businesses from competition (thereby creating income inequality, as well as “too big to fail” businesses).

Fox News: Budweiser unveils beer glass that connects to Facebook

At the very least, this qualifies as “over the top”:

Budweiser recently unveiled the “Buddy Cup,” a pint glass with a built-in chip that connects to Facebook. The cup automatically connects people on Facebook when they clink glasses with another “Buddy Cup” user, creating a virtual friendship instantly.

The cup’s promotional video shows the glass being tested in Brazil as images of drinkers enjoyably clinking pints flash across the screen.

“So, they just did the same as always: Went out drinking Bud, and making new friends,” a male narrator announces in the company’s commercial.

Personally, I think Budweiser needs a new marketing company…

April 29th: Ed’s Daily Portfolio Summary   1 comment

BEAV: 0.82 to $62.19 ( 1.34% , 5.46% overall)– bought at $58.97
GNW: 0.07 to $9.94 ( 0.71% , 6.08% overall)– bought at $9.37
GOOG: 17.64 to $819.06 ( 2.20% , 2.32% overall)– bought at $800.52
IAU: 0.14 to $14.30 ( 0.99% , 5.77% overall)– bought at $13.52
NNVC: -0.01 to $0.61 ( -1.61% , 29.79% overall)– bought at $0.47
QCOM: 0.09 to $61.61 ( 0.15% , -1.36% overall)– bought at $62.46
SIVR: 0.41 to $24.07 ( 1.73% , 3.93% overall)– bought at $23.16
SWHC: 0.13 to $8.84 ( 1.49% , 2.31% overall)– bought at $8.64
YHOO: -0.25 to $24.43 ( -1.01% , 1.16% overall)– bought at $24.15

OVERALL: +0.35%

Posted April 29, 2013 by edmcgon in Open Thread, Portfolio

Traders Corner   22 comments

Even though S&P 500 futures are up early, don’t read too much into it. With the Fed meeting Tuesday, and the European Central Bank meeting Thursday, any moves up or down will be minimal.

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1583 (April 24th’s high), 1585-1586 (2 data points), 1588-1589 (2 data points), 1592-1593 (2 data points), and 1597 (April 11th’s high and the all-time high and the top of the Bollinger Bands).
DOWNSIDE: 1577-1579 (4 data points), 1573-1575 (5 data points), 1570-1571 (3 data points, including March’s high), 1568 (April 10th’s low and the 20 day moving average), 1566 (10 day moving average), 1551-1565 (29 data points), 1549 (50 day moving average), 1548 (April 22nd’s low), 1543 (April 17th’s low), 1539 (2 data points and the bottom of the Bollinger Bands), 1536 (April 18th’s low), 1530 (February’s high), 1509 (January’s high), 1501 (March’s low), 1485 (February’s low), 1474 (2012’s high), and 1457 (200 day moving average).

Posted April 29, 2013 by edmcgon in Daytrading, Investing, Market Analysis