Archive for the ‘Technical Analysis’ Category

Traders Corner   23 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 2005 (August’s high and the all-time high), and 2025 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 2003, inside the 2001-2003 (3 data points) range.
DOWNSIDE: 1993-1998 (6 data points), 1982-1990 (July’s high and 5 data points), 1968 (June’s high), 1966 (50 day moving average), 1963 (20 day moving average), 1927-1939 (July’s low and 9 data points and the 100 day moving average), 1924 (May’s high), 1904 (August’s low), and 1901 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish (weakening)
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Slightly Positive
Overall: The markets were running last week on low volume. Will the volume come back this week? Until then, the momentum indicators seem headed to neutral, in spite of the price action.

Posted September 2, 2014 by edmcgon in Daytrading, Investing, Market Analysis, Technical Analysis

Traders Corner   35 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 2001-2002 (2 data points), 2005 (August 26th’s high and the all-time high), and 2016 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 2000.
DOWNSIDE: 1993-1998 (4 data points), 1991 (July’s high), 1982-1988 (4 data points), 1977 (August 20th’s low), 1971-1972 (2 data points), 1968 (June’s high), 1964 (August 15th’s high and the 50 day moving average), 1958 (August 18th’s low), 1956 (20 day moving average), 1955 (August 14th’s high), 1947-1948 (2 data points), 1944 (August 11th’s high), 1941 (August 15th’s low), 1927-1939 (July’s low and 9 data points and the 100 day moving average), 1924 (May’s high), 1921 (August 4th’s low), 1916 (August 1st’s low), 1909-1913 (3 data points), 1904 (August 7th’s low), and 1896 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish (weakening)
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Negative
Overall: With the S&P 500’s bullish momentum weakening, and the futures pointing down, it looks like a day for the bears today.

Traders Corner   17 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 2001 (August 25th’s high), 2005 (August 26th’s high and the all-time high), and 2011 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 2000.
DOWNSIDE: 1998 (August 26th’s low), 1993-1994 (2 data points), 1991 (July’s high), 1988 (August 20th’s high), 1986 (August 21st’s low), 1984 (August 22nd’s low), 1982 (August 19th’s high), 1977 (August 20th’s low), 1971-1972 (2 data points), 1968 (June’s high), 1964 (August 15th’s high), 1963 (50 day moving average), 1958 (August 18th’s low), 1955 (August 14th’s high), 1954 (20 day moving average), 1947-1948 (2 data points), 1944 (August 11th’s high), 1941 (August 15th’s low), 1927-1939 (July’s low and 9 data points), 1926 (100 day moving average), 1924 (May’s high), 1921 (August 4th’s low), 1916 (August 1st’s low), 1909-1913 (3 data points), 1904 (August 7th’s low), and 1897 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Slightly positive
Overall: The S&P 500’s bullish momentum is starting to flatten. This could indicate a bullish pause, or a reversal. On the other hand, the Bollinger Bands are still expanding, which would seem to indicate this bull has more room to run. The overbought/oversold indicators still have some bullish room left.

Traders Corner   40 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 2001 (August 25th’s high and the all-time high), and 2006 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1997.
DOWNSIDE: 1993-1994 (2 data points), 1991 (July’s high), 1988 (August 20th’s high), 1986 (August 21st’s low), 1984 (August 22nd’s low), 1982 (August 19th’s high), 1977 (August 20th’s low), 1971-1972 (2 data points), 1968 (June’s high), 1964 (August 15th’s high), 1962 (50 day moving average), 1958 (August 18th’s low), 1955 (August 14th’s high), 1953 (20 day moving average), 1947-1948 (2 data points), 1944 (August 11th’s high), 1941 (August 15th’s low), 1927-1939 (July’s low and 9 data points), 1925 (100 day moving average), 1924 (May’s high), 1921 (August 4th’s low), 1916 (August 1st’s low), 1909-1913 (3 data points), 1904 (August 7th’s low), and 1899 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Slightly positive
Overall: Yesterday, the S&P 500’s P&F chart showed an ascending triple top breakout, which is considered bullish long-term. However, the P&F’s price target remains at 2040, which is only a little over a 2% increase from yesterday’s close. My takeaway from this signal is limited upside, keeping in mind P&F targets aren’t always accurate. On the other hand, momentum certainly belongs to the bulls in the short term. Taking long positions in day/week/month trades is probably safe here, but only if sentiment doesn’t shift. There is still enough money sloshing around in the markets to keep equities running here. One more bullish signal: The Bollinger Bands are starting to expand, just as the market is moving upwards.

Traders Corner   17 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1991 (July’s high), 1993-1994 (2 data points and the all-time high), and 2003 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1988 (August 20th’s high).
DOWNSIDE: 1986 (August 21st’s low), 1984 (August 22nd’s low), 1982 (August 19th’s high), 1977 (August 20th’s low), 1971-1972 (2 data points), 1968 (June’s high), 1964 (August 15th’s high), 1960 (50 day moving average), 1958 (August 18th’s low), 1955 (August 14th’s high), 1952 (20 day moving average), 1947-1948 (2 data points), 1944 (August 11th’s high), 1941 (August 15th’s low), 1927-1939 (July’s low and 9 data points), 1924 (May’s high and the 100 day moving average), 1921 (August 4th’s low), 1916 (August 1st’s low), 1909-1913 (3 data points), 1904 (August 7th’s low), and 1901 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Positive
Overall: Because of the low volume Friday, most of the technicals didn’t move much. But the S&P 500 futures are giving the bulls the opening today.

August 22nd: Ed’s Daily Notes and Traders Corner   35 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1994 (August 21st’s high and the all-time high), and 2001 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1992.
DOWNSIDE: 1991 (July’s high), 1988 (August 20th’s high), 1986 (August 21st’s low), 1982 (August 19th’s high), 1977 (August 20th’s low), 1971-1972 (2 data points), 1968 (June’s high), 1964 (August 15th’s high), 1959 (50 day moving average), 1958 (August 18th’s low), 1955 (August 14th’s high), 1951 (20 day moving average), 1947-1948 (2 data points), 1944 (August 11th’s high), 1941 (August 15th’s low), 1927-1939 (July’s low and 9 data points), 1924 (May’s high), 1923 (100 day moving average), 1921 (August 4th’s low), 1916 (August 1st’s low), 1909-1913 (3 data points), 1904 (August 7th’s low), and 1902 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Slightly negative, almost neutral
Overall: With Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech today at 10 am EST, the markets are basically on the edge of their seats. But the S&P 500 has already had a big run-up this week, up 1.91%. What can Yellen say to push markets up further? Other than “QE forever!”, there isn’t much that she hasn’t already said. In addition, the technicals are getting dangerously close to overbought levels. One other thing: Have you noticed the Nasdaq hasn’t been participating as much in this week’s run-up? It is only up 1.5%. The Russell 2000, the small cap index, is only up 1.6%. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.26%. Overall, this tells me the big caps are moving up more than the small caps. A move into big caps is not a positive market sign folks. Be careful out there.

And now for the news…

Bloomberg: India to Unveil First Warship to Deter Chinese Submarines

India will unveil its first home-built anti-submarine warship tomorrow in a move to deter China from conducting underwater patrols near its shores.

Defense Minister Arun Jaitley will commission the 3,300-ton INS Kamorta at the southeastern Vishakapatnam port. The move comes a week after Prime Minister Narendra Modi introduced the largest indigenously built guided-missile destroyer and vowed to bolster the country’s defenses so “no one dares to cast an evil glance at India.”

India is playing catch-up to China, which built 20 such warships in the past two years and sent a nuclear submarine to the Indian Ocean in December for a two-month anti-piracy patrol. The waters are home to shipping lanes carrying about 80 percent of the world’s seaborne oil, mostly headed to China and Japan.

Anybody get the feeling World War III might take place in Asia instead of Europe?

Traders Corner   33 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 1988 (August 20th’s high), 1991 (July’s high and the all-time high), and 2000 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 1986.
DOWNSIDE: 1982 (August 19th’s high), 1977 (August 20th’s low), 1971-1972 (2 data points), 1968 (June’s high), 1964 (August 15th’s high), 1958 (August 18th’s low and the 50 day moving average), 1955 (August 14th’s high), 1951 (20 day moving average), 1947-1948 (2 data points), 1944 (August 11th’s high), 1941 (August 15th’s low), 1927-1939 (July’s low and 9 data points), 1924 (May’s high), 1922 (100 day moving average), 1921 (August 4th’s low), 1916 (August 1st’s low), 1909-1913 (3 data points), 1904 (August 7th’s low), and 1902 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Positive
Overall: It looks like yesterday’s FOMC minutes gave the bulls a second wind, albeit a somewhat weak wind. With the S&P 500’s daily momentum looking strongly bullish, the only thing to worry about is the market’s conditions becoming overbought. But the futures are pointing to a bullish opening, so this run may still have some legs.