The S&P 500 levels to watch today:
UPSIDE: 2001-2002 (2 data points), 2005 (August 26th’s high and the all-time high), and 2016 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 2000.
DOWNSIDE: 1993-1998 (4 data points), 1991 (July’s high), 1982-1988 (4 data points), 1977 (August 20th’s low), 1971-1972 (2 data points), 1968 (June’s high), 1964 (August 15th’s high and the 50 day moving average), 1958 (August 18th’s low), 1956 (20 day moving average), 1955 (August 14th’s high), 1947-1948 (2 data points), 1944 (August 11th’s high), 1941 (August 15th’s low), 1927-1939 (July’s low and 9 data points and the 100 day moving average), 1924 (May’s high), 1921 (August 4th’s low), 1916 (August 1st’s low), 1909-1913 (3 data points), 1904 (August 7th’s low), and 1896 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).
S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish (weakening)
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Negative
Overall: With the S&P 500’s bullish momentum weakening, and the futures pointing down, it looks like a day for the bears today.
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Ed's Talking Stock 
GDP numbers showed corporate spending was stronger than expected. Does that bode well for tech stocks like EMC, CSCO, CA ect?
Looking to sell some UVXY calls today and hopefully dig myself out of my hole for these shares
Jeff, I’m holding for now. Daily chart started to look better a couple of days ago. I want to see how this plays out for a few days. With the S&P definitely overbought, this pullback was expected. Now we have to see if we get some follow through.
Good points Trader. I’m not going to trap myself like I did with my apple shares. Any calls I sell will be around $30 so at least my position sells at a gain. If UVXY runs past 30 I can always buy more shares
I’m thinking the same. When I sell calls the strike price will be higher than my initial cost. As long as premiums stay high and the market doesn’t shoot higher, it should work out ok.
Thanks to Raymond I maybe able to keep my gtat shares. Not sure what I’ll do next week.
GTAT is an amazing battleground stock. Many passionate longs but many people with short positions. Every day rumors are out there. I have no idea whether sapphire will be widely available for a September launch – I do believe that demand for sapphire will be strong (it is a differentiator). So even if production isn’t meeting demand, longer term the production issues will be worked out – I assume demand will still be strong. So while day to day, GTAT is not for the faint of heart – I do think investors with longer time horizons have potential to do quite well if you can stand the day to day swings. Recall they believe 2016 earnings will be $1.50 per share or higher. If they do that are are in growth industries (they have a lot more than just sapphire with AAPL => not a one trick pony), that has to be at least a $25 to $30 stock price by 2016. You can see this in options, January 2016 a $25 strike price costs 3.60. In fact if people are disappointed by amount of sapphire initially at September launch, that might be an excellent time to buy some 2016 call options and plant some seeds for future profits. Take advantage of short term view versus long term view.
Marshall thanks for highlighting the Jan 16 GTAT options. Interesting strategy.
Good way to look at it Marshall.
Marshall, don’t give up on TSL yet. Still have a chance to be called.
Trader – it is battling back a bit! I almost want it not to be called so I can sell another call option. But either way, if I can bank a 15% profit for a four month investment I am always very very happy.
I doubt it will make a rocket type move even if we are called out. Could always rebuy and sell the calls again. I usually don’t look at long term options but I may consider selling some on GTAT. About a 75% return if called based on current prices. Thanks for pointing that out.
Trader – I am definitely keeping an eye on the jan 16 options for GTAT. If the stock drops in September due to disappointment of initial sapphire usage, I will likely buy calls. If the stock pops in September, I will likely sell calls. I guess I am expecting a short term over reaction in either direction.
Marshall, we’re on the same page. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a $2.00 plus move. My crystal ball isn’t working again. Keep hoping it will clear up and tell me which direction. Maybe it’s me. Might try a couple of shots of w_ seattle’s whiskey to see if my vision clears up.
FEYE @ 30.15. I may hold this for a bit. Seems to be gaining momentum.
Trader – any technical thoughts on SLV?
Thanks!
Marshall, on the weekly chart it has support in the 18 area. Thechnicals are not showing strength yet. The daily looks better. Starting to show some strength with momentum. I would guess flat or starts to move higher. Looks to have more upside than downside at this point. Maybe a starter position and add when there is more confirmation of the trend .
Thanks trader. I will continue to watch it.
Nice call on market moves Trader.
Thanks. Sometimes this technical stuff works. As over bought as the S&P is on the daily chart it wasn’t a real stretch to expect some down movement Now we have to see if we get any follow through. The days not over so could still reverse course.
Trader,
Where are you seeing overbought? RSI is still below overbought conditions. Williams %R is the only one I’m seeing as overbought, and I don’t rely on that alone as an indicator.
Ed, stochastic oscillator, is useful
Trader, Daily chart has been weakening on GTAT looks like Macd is going -. Weekly is still good.(weakening) What is normal or what does you crystal ball say and don’t use a broken crystal ball this time 🙂
Bill,
Which one? There are several stochastics?
I use the stochastic rsi. I’m not sure if Trader uses that one or not but I know he recommended the stochastic oscillator.
Oh and Ed, I should also say I still don’t know how Trader’s crystal balls work. I still look at William’s %R I like it. I also like the wave trading but that has a learning curve that I haven’t had the time for this summer.
Bill,
I looked at the stochastic RSI, and it doesn’t look much different than the Williams %R to me. It has also read overbought well before the recent bull run finished, so I can’t call it an “absolute” overbought/oversold indicator.
Trader can you tell me what the charts for BAM are telling you? I have a very nice gain in them and wondering if charts look strong yet or do for pullback?
bobb, BAM looks like it is topping out on both the weekly and daily charts. Momentum and strength are turning lower along with other technicals. I think I would wait on this one until it appears to be over sold. Looks like it could go to low 40’s. I would be surprised to see it move up much from here without a pull back first. Would be happy to look at it again at any time.
Would you take profits now and buy back later?
Sorry bobb. Got so involved in looking at the techs I forgot you owned it. I would take at least some profit. You can’t strictly rely on technicals or fundamentals. You have to use risk management at well. No way to know for sure what tomorrow will bring. I always hate to give back profits. That is why I rarely hit home runs. I’ll take the singles.
Nice move by NADL today. Up 6% on decent volume. I think this is a solid dividend stock. It does seem to move around a bit, so if you are patient could get under $10. While their deal with Rosneft may be skirting Russian trade sanctions, as an investor it aligns Rosneft interests with NADL and seems to assure longer term visibility for revenues.
Nice pop in GPRO. Couldn’t find a reason.
I sold UPRO at $121.85 for a -0.61% result. I don’t want to ride it into tomorrow or next week/month.
Kind of a lousy day for me after a great stretch. Down about 65 basis points, GTAT down 4.8% hurt! plus TLM continues to drift down as merger looks less and less likely. No transactions today, though watching SLV.