August 28th: Ed’s Daily IRA Summary   3 comments

Ed’s IRA: -0.22%
DJIA: -0.25%
Nasdaq: -0.26%
S&P 500: -0.17%

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Posted August 28, 2014 by edmcgon in Open Thread, Portfolio

Traders Corner   35 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 2001-2002 (2 data points), 2005 (August 26th’s high and the all-time high), and 2016 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 2000.
DOWNSIDE: 1993-1998 (4 data points), 1991 (July’s high), 1982-1988 (4 data points), 1977 (August 20th’s low), 1971-1972 (2 data points), 1968 (June’s high), 1964 (August 15th’s high and the 50 day moving average), 1958 (August 18th’s low), 1956 (20 day moving average), 1955 (August 14th’s high), 1947-1948 (2 data points), 1944 (August 11th’s high), 1941 (August 15th’s low), 1927-1939 (July’s low and 9 data points and the 100 day moving average), 1924 (May’s high), 1921 (August 4th’s low), 1916 (August 1st’s low), 1909-1913 (3 data points), 1904 (August 7th’s low), and 1896 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish (weakening)
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Negative
Overall: With the S&P 500’s bullish momentum weakening, and the futures pointing down, it looks like a day for the bears today.

Ed’s Daily Notes for August 28th   3 comments

Bloomberg: Gold-Price Indicator Fading as ETPs Tumble by $71 Billion

Gold-backed funds that heralded record prices in 2011 and last year’s biggest sell-off in three decades are becoming less useful as market predictors.

After a decade of changing mostly in tandem, gold prices and holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion have the most-negative correlation since 2004. Investment in ETPs are headed for a fifth straight week of moving in the opposite direction of New York futures, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That would be the longest stretch since 2012, before investors began dumping gold.

Global ETPs that accumulated more bullion than France’s central bank in 2012 saw their influence wane as equities surged and the Federal Reserve took steps to ease economic stimulus, signaling higher interest rates that erode the appeal of gold as an alternative asset. As investors exited the funds, erasing about $71 billion of value, unrest from Ukraine to Gaza this year revived demand for the precious metal as a haven, boosting prices that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says aren’t sustainable.

“There is a disconnect” because “a lot of money has left,” said Mark Luschini, the chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC. in Pittsburgh that oversees $65 billion. “For gold, this year has been all about the Federal Reserve and political tension, and at the moment, the rate-increase worries are overshadowing the safe-haven buying.”

The bloom is off the golden rose. That doesn’t make gold ETP’s a “sell”. It just means the actions of retail investors in equity markets is far less relevant to the price of gold now.

Business Insider (via Yahoo Finance): This Illustration Posted By Eric Schmidt Shows How Google Thinks About Innovation

Google is one of the largest, most influential technology companies in the world. But it didn’t start out that way, and it’s not easy to maintain that status. Google Executive Chairman and former CEO Eric Schmidt has shared some insight as to how Google views innovation and the competition.

Schmidt and Google’s former SVP of Products Jonathan Rosenberg are publishing a book next month called “How Google Works.” The book dives into what Schmidt and Rosenberg learned as they helped build Google into what it is today.

Schmidt has been teasing the book by posting excerpts of illustrations and various tips from the book to his Google+ and Twitter page. His latest post emphasizes that tackling the market with different angles rather than simply trying to be better than your rival is crucial for success.

“It’s important to understand what’s going on around you, but the best way to stay ahead is a laser focus on building great products that people need,” Schmidt posted to Google+ along with the illustration.

This_Illustration_Posted_By_Eric

Posted August 28, 2014 by edmcgon in News, Precious Metals, Stocks

August 27th: Ed’s Daily IRA Summary   Leave a comment

UPRO: -0.14 to $122.14 ( -0.11% , -0.38% overall)– bought at $122.60

Ed’s IRA: -0.11%
DJIA: 0.09%
Nasdaq: -0.02%
S&P 500: 0.00%

Posted August 27, 2014 by edmcgon in Open Thread, Portfolio

Traders Corner   17 comments

The S&P 500 levels to watch today:

UPSIDE: 2001 (August 25th’s high), 2005 (August 26th’s high and the all-time high), and 2011 (top of the Bollinger Bands).
LAST CLOSE: 2000.
DOWNSIDE: 1998 (August 26th’s low), 1993-1994 (2 data points), 1991 (July’s high), 1988 (August 20th’s high), 1986 (August 21st’s low), 1984 (August 22nd’s low), 1982 (August 19th’s high), 1977 (August 20th’s low), 1971-1972 (2 data points), 1968 (June’s high), 1964 (August 15th’s high), 1963 (50 day moving average), 1958 (August 18th’s low), 1955 (August 14th’s high), 1954 (20 day moving average), 1947-1948 (2 data points), 1944 (August 11th’s high), 1941 (August 15th’s low), 1927-1939 (July’s low and 9 data points), 1926 (100 day moving average), 1924 (May’s high), 1921 (August 4th’s low), 1916 (August 1st’s low), 1909-1913 (3 data points), 1904 (August 7th’s low), and 1897 (bottom of the Bollinger Bands).

S&P 500 Daily Momentum: Bullish
S&P 500 Daily Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Weekly Momentum: Bearish (weakening)
S&P 500 Weekly Overbought/oversold: Neutral (leaning overbought)
S&P 500 Futures: Slightly positive
Overall: The S&P 500’s bullish momentum is starting to flatten. This could indicate a bullish pause, or a reversal. On the other hand, the Bollinger Bands are still expanding, which would seem to indicate this bull has more room to run. The overbought/oversold indicators still have some bullish room left.

Ed’s Daily Notes for August 27th   2 comments

SeaDrill

Yahoo Finance: Rig company Seadrill hit by profit miss and cautious outlook

Seadrill, the world’s biggest offshore driller by market capitalisation, reported second-quarter earnings below forecasts on Wednesday and offered a cautious outlook for the rig market, sending its shares lower.

Seadrill, the crown jewel in shipping tycoon John Fredriksen’s business empire, has been hit like other rig firms by oil companies reining in spending to counter rising costs.

Seadrill’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the quarter came in at $641 million, below forecasts of $663 million in a Reuters poll of analysts and down from the $665 million it posted a year ago.

“The near-term market for ultra-deepwater drilling units continues to be challenging, partly driven by a reduction in exploration drilling that has led to a slower growth rate in overall upstream spending,” the company said in a statement.

…The company intends to prioritise returning cash to shareholders, it said, adding that it can maintain a quarterly dividend of 1 dollar per share well into 2016, even if the rig market fails to make a significant recovery.

While I have not had time to look over their latest financials, the last point is key, since the dividend is one of the top reasons I own SeaDrill shares. The other reason? They were dirt cheap when I bought them. If they drop back down to where I bought them, I might have to add some more. I will take a “wait and see” approach to it.

Posted August 27, 2014 by edmcgon in News, Stocks, Strategy, Uncategorized

August 26th: Ed’s Daily IRA Summary   6 comments

UPRO: -0.32 to $122.28 ( -0.26% , -0.26% overall)–bought at $122.60

Ed’s IRA: -0.12%
DJIA: 0.17%
Nasdaq: 0.29%
S&P 500: 0.11%

In case you are wondering, I am letting the UPRO run overnight, and possibly into Thursday, as the daily momentum is still bullish.

Posted August 26, 2014 by edmcgon in Open Thread, Portfolio